Thursday, January 7, 2016

Wall leads by wide margin in new Saskatchewan poll

The latest sounding of public opinion in Saskatchewan, which holds its election in a little more than three months, shows Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party to still be in a very strong position.

The poll gives the Sask Party 59% support, up two points from when Mainstreet Research last polled in early October. The New Democrats trailed with 28%, down four points, while the Liberals were unchanged at 7%. The Greens were down slightly to 3%.

The score for the Liberals is interesting, as the last poll from Insightrix, taken just after the federal election, had the party with double the support. It appears it might have been nothing more than a post-election blip.

Regionally, the race was somewhat closer in Regina and Saskatoon, where the New Democrats had 34% and 37% support, respectively, among decided voters. Nevertheless, the Sask Party was up by 15 points in both cities.

Outside of the two cities, the Sask Party was ahead with 66% to 23% for the NDP. The Liberals were not much of a factor anywhere.

The NDP scored better on some issues than they did on the voting intentions questions, but the Sask Party was still well ahead on all scores. There is little indication that Wall is at any risk.


  1. Wall has somehow been given credit for Saskatchewan's economic turnaround. And while he should get credit for not screwing it up, his predecessors - Lorne Calvert in particular - don't get enough credit for having created those conditions.

    Romanow balanced the budget in the 1990s, but then Calvert implemented a bunch of market-based reforms that radically transformed Saskatchewan's economy.

    I shared a plane with Lorne Calvert once. He seemed like a sad guy who was trying to avoid getting noticed. It's a shame. Saskatchewan people should look back at Lorne Calvert the way Albertans look back at Ralph Klein.

    1. I completely agree with you. With globalization under way, governments have less and less to do with the economy.

      The economic boom in 2007 is entirely accountable to the new oil revenues we got from fracking in the Bakken formation. The boom would still have happened under an NDP government, and it would be them with 59% support today.

      If the NDP would have stayed, Saskatchewan would probably have:

      - not received the 2007 record tax break
      - no lean propram
      - more money invested in healthcare
      - more revenues from natural ressources due to higher redevance rates on oil and potash.
      - continued saskfilm funding
      - no cuts on firefighters
      - recognition that global heating exist
      - a plan to replace all coal power plants with a nuclear power plant & wind turbines
      - A not as friendly environment toward businesses

  2. Eric can we expect to see some riding by riding analysis?

  3. While in 2011 this poll would have been even more pointless for the Liberals than it currently is (7% is nothing to brag about), the fact is that at the current trajectory the party might actually be able to take that level of support in a general election, bringing them back to 2007 levels of support.

    Based alone on their current number of candidates, they have over three times as many candidates as they did during the 2011 election. Lamoureux's Liberals could impact several close races in this election just based on the fact that they has more Liberal names on the ballot.

    Question is, can they win any of them? The Liberals have no obvious base of support anywhere in the province, and hell if I know what they stand for. Still interesting to consider what kind of effect their sure-to-increase numbers will have anywhere.

    Also, how do you include any rise in support into any projection model? 2011 was such an aberration that its almost useless to use as a base; do you just default to 2007, 03, etc? Fun stuff to figure out! I look forward to seeing the model, Eric.

    1. Now that I'm using the three-election model, the oddity of 2011 for the Liberals is not too much of a problem. If they have a candidate running in a riding that they didn't have one from 2011, I would just swing the results from 2003 and 2007.

  4. @Eric: I'm confused by your presentation of the Liberals poll. First you say "the Liberals were unchanged at 7%" (from what?) and later on you say the last poll from Insightrix, had the party with double the support.
    Either way, the Liberal numbers indicate that voters may distinguish between the performance of the federal Liberals and the prospects of the provincial Liberals. In contrast, the good Manitoba provincial Liberals numbers look to be based on more than just federal glow.

    1. That is in comparison to a Mainstreet poll done in October in SK.


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