Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Mulcair drops in Nanos 'Best PM' tally

The latest weekly sounding from Nanos Research on who Canadians prefer for prime minister has low numbers for Tom Mulcair — the lowest on record for the NDP leader.

Nanos's poll is a four-week rolling sample, so there is a lot of overlap from one week to the next. But the chart below breaks down Nanos's polling into independent samples. Since the election, there have been three. Note that the first result for Rona Ambrose includes some responses for Stephen Harper.

None of the movement from poll-to-poll is outside the margin of error, so too much should not be made of these numbers until a more long-term trend emerges. But the difference for Mulcair between the first post-election poll and the most recent, where he registers 10.3%, is just 0.1 point less than the margin of error for these two samples.

Justin Trudeau's numbers in these independent samples are heading in a positive direction, and he leads with 53.2%.

Ambrose follows him with 13.2%, while Elizabeth May and Rhéal Fortin were at 4.2% and 1.1%, respectively.

As noted in Nanos's release last week, Trudeau's biggest competition is the undecided. They are at 18% in the last poll. If we remove the undecideds, Trudeau leads with 65%, followed by Ambrose at 16% and Mulcair at 13%.

On another topic entirely, and quite different from my usual beat, I took a deep dive into the numbers surrounding our mission in the Middle East against ISIS.

And on another unrelated topic, you'll find below the latest provincial polling averages, updated through to December 2015.

Click to magnify


  1. Mulcair blew the last election so badly he has no excuse to stay !!

    1. Did he, though? I look at historical NDP results, and this is about where we should expect them to be.

      Mulcair's only real failing is that he isn't Jack Layton. But that perspective undercuts just how special a politician Jack Layton was.

      I fully expect the NDP will turf Mulcair, but I don't expect his replacement to do any better, particularly as long as Trudeau is out there making friends and turning heads.

    2. Mulcair was brought on as both deputy leader and leader to expand and retain the Quebec base. He failed. Worse The NDP in English Canada is essentially at a post-War low. This was the NDP's best and thus far only chance to form government and Mulcair was soundly rejected. His election strategy was poorly thought out and Mulcair proved to be an inept messenger.

      I agree with Ira that this is where the NDP belongs but, a more capable leader would have been able to re-set the campaign and held on to Official Opposition. Mulcair's current best PM rating says it all. He's old news and only NDPers are interested in what he has to say. He needs to go if the NDP wishes to re-emerge as a serious political force. At the moment Mulcair is more Jeremy Corbyn than Jack Layton.

    3. Ira,

      I would put it to you that Mulcair is not in trouble simply because no one wants to inherit his political position at the moment.

      The world is full of second chances and he may very well get his, if his polling improves steadily over time.

    4. I don't think Mulcair performed at well as he could have in the 2015 election. The question is if the NDP leadership team can correct their messaging and image mistakes with Mulcair for 2019 or else who can do a better job.

      Beyond Trudeau's force of personality, there was a fundamental shift in the LPC campaign management. Volunteers were trained and vetted. Data was collected and analysed. Events and photo-ops were staged to evoke specific community and personal connections.

      The CPC have been strong at this for a decade, but they've been saddled with a smart and savvy, but wooden and eventually despised leader.

      As far as I'm away, the NDP has yet to make that transition. Mulcair's public face was too soft, and the NDP weren't well enough connected to the fundamentals to realise it.

    5. Capilano Dunbar - There was no way to hold on to official opposition with the Liberals winning. The CPC vote was stable. They got almost exactly the same number of votes in 2015 as in 2011. No one was taking voters away from the CPC.

      The NDP was fighting with the Liberals over what was, from the NDP perspective, a static pool. The Liberals changed the game, though, and made the pool bigger by creating new voters. There was simply no way for the CPC not to finish second in this election once the Liberals did that.

    6. Mapleson,

      Your first paragraph does not contain a question.

    7. Ah Ghost, pedantic as ever. As you are apparently struggling to understand, I'll reformulate the sentence for you.

      The question is: "can the NDP leadership team correct their messaging and image mistakes with Mulcair for 2019? If not, who can do a better job?"

      Now you have two questions!

    8. You may want to review your grammar. The question is: Can the NDP leadership correct their message and improve Mulcair's image in 2019; If not: Who can do a better job?

  2. Mulcair had a good chance to be PM if he wouldn't have tried to use Republican like negative politics, that turns so many Canadians off. I think one thing that has not been talked about is how the NDP personally attacked Trudeau, alienating millions of ABC voters that determined the election. You can see the turn in the polls, even before the niqab debate. The fall of the NDP vote to the PQ was just the nail in the coffin of what Mulcair and his people had done to themselves. There needs to be a total clean house in the NDP just for the fact the didn't know or respect the type of voters that put them ahead in the polls.


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