More provincial aggregates added

More provincial polling averages have been added to the site today. You can access the one for New Brunswick here. 

The averages for Quebec, including regional and linguistic breakdowns, can be found here. The latest poll from the province was out just this past week.

The averages for Alberta are here.

And in case you missed them last week, pages for Nova Scotia and Ontario were also added.

For future reference, these averages can be found in the right-hand column of the site further down the page. 

The Pollcast: The Stephen Harper years and beyond

Stephen Harper will speak to party members on Thursday evening at the Conservative Party's policy convention in Vancouver. It could be some of the last words he will speak in public as an elected member of Parliament.

Canada's 22nd prime minister is expected to resign his Calgary Heritage seat before the fall, a seat he has held since returning to federal politics in a by-election in 2002. 

As leader of the Canadian Alliance, Harper led the party into a merger with the Progressive Conservatives in 2003. He then led the merged party to power in 2006, where it remained until it was defeated by Justin Trudeau's Liberals in October.

Harper's 10 years in office have left an impact on the political landscape of the country and shaped the modern Conservative Party. How will Canadians remember his time as prime minister and what will the Conservative Party look like without the only permanent leader it has ever known?

Joining me to look at Stephen Harper's legacy and the future of the Conservative Party is Postmedia's Ottawa political bureau chief, John Ivison.

You can listen to the latest episode of the Pollcast here.

Canadians shrug off Justin Trudeau's elbow, polls suggest

The altercation in the House of Commons last week between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and members of the opposition captured Canadians' attention, but two polls published this week suggest a majority of those Canadians have shrugged it off like a wayward elbow on a crowded subway.

The latest poll, conducted by Ipsos for Global News, shows that 63 per cent of Canadians feel the tussle was "no big deal," a "momentary lapse of judgment" on the part of the prime minister, and that "we should all just move on."

You can read the rest of this article here.

Leadership race rules could exacerbate Conservative Party divisions

The Conservative policy convention being held this week in Vancouver will help determine the future of the party. But how much of the party's divided past is still a factor, more than 12 years after the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives united the right as the Conservative Party of Canada?

Compared to the Liberals and New Democrats, the Conservative support base is split more evenly between its centrist supporters and those on the edges of the political spectrum.

Polling data provided by Abacus Data suggests that 45 per cent of Conservative voters self-identify as being centrist, compared to 45 per cent who say they are either on the centre-right or right.

You can read the rest of this article here.

Donald Trump's path to Republican nomination looking clearer

New York, New York.

The state in which Donald Trump started his real estate empire gave his Republican presidential nomination bid a much-needed boost on Tuesday.

A huge boost. One of the greatest boosts anyone has ever seen. You wouldn't believe how big of a boost it was.

You can read the rest of my analysis on where Trump stands in the Republican nomination here.

The Pollcast: The politics and priorities of Canada's youth

A traditionally neglected cohort of voters may have tipped the scales in favour of the Liberals in last year's federal election, according to a new poll. If so, what does that mean for the political future of Canada's youth?

A new survey conducted by Abacus Data in partnership with the Canadian Alliance of Student Associations found that the Liberals won the support of the youngest voters by a significant margin — enough to have potentially been decisive in the Liberals' majority victory.

But if the Liberals have the youth vote today, what will it take for the governing party to keep that vote into the future?

Joining me to discuss the politics and priorities of Canada's youth is David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data.

You can listen to the latest episode of the Pollcast here.

Selinger defeat reduces NDP governments down to one — again

With the defeat of Greg Selinger's Manitoba New Democrats on Tuesday, only one province in Canada is now governed by the NDP.

But the significance of this shouldn't be exaggerated. In fact, it is not at all unusual for the NDP to be holding power in only one provincial capital — indeed, the last time that happened was less than one year ago.

You can read the rest of this article here.

Brian Pallister's Manitoba PCs win record-breaking victory

The Manitoba Progressive Conservatives under Brian Pallister won a majority government in a historic fashion Tuesday night, putting up some of the biggest numbers by any party in the province's history.

In the process, the PCs ended the long reign of the Manitoba New Democrats, in office since 1999, as the NDP's vote collapsed in every part of the province.

You can read the rest of this results analysis here.

Six months in, Justin Trudeau's Liberals still riding high in polls

Six months after winning a majority government in last year's federal vote, the Liberals continue to poll above their showing on election night. But is Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's honeymoon with voters over?

Short answer: no.

Long answer? Well, still no. In fact, there are very few negative indicators for Trudeau's Liberals in the polls in this early stage of their four-year mandate. But there are some signs that the Liberals may face some headwinds in the future.

You can read the rest of this article here.

Canadians support budget, accept deficit, poll suggests

Canadians may not love the $29.4 billion in deficit spending announced in Tuesday's federal budget, but they can live with it, are broadly supportive of many of the measures included in the budget, and would pass it if they were MPs, a new poll suggests.

The survey, conducted by Abacus Data shortly after the budget was tabled and commissioned by EY, found that Canadians are generally looking on the budget favourably, if not enthusiastically.

You can read the rest of this article on Abacus Data's budget poll here. The article also contains the latest episode of the Pollcast, with Abacus Data CEO David Coletto.

Saskatchewan leaders' debate unlikely to move many votes, poll suggests

Despite the heated rhetoric of Wednesday's Saskatchewan leaders' debate, a poll of debate-watchers taken immediately afterwards suggests that the event may not have moved many votes.

The poll, conducted by Mainstreet Research for Postmedia and surveying 1,006 Saskatchewan people who said they had watched the debate, showed that 56 per cent of debate-watchers thought that Saskatchewan Party Leader Brad Wall had done a better job, while just 32 per cent gave the nod to NDP Leader Cam Broten. Another 12 per cent were unsure.

You can read the rest of this article on the Mainstreet poll on the debate here.

Donald Trump persuading Republicans, but would lose to Hillary Clinton

As the Donald Trump train continues to roll after winning Arizona and all of its delegates on Tuesday, the question of how Trump might fare against the Democrats becomes more and more relevant.

The answer? Not very well. In fact, a Trump candidacy in November could result in some very red states turning reluctantly blue.

You can read the rest of my look at the U.S. primaries and would it could mean for the general election in November here.

Web traffic suggests anticipation for Liberal budget high

The Liberal government's first federal budget to be presented Tuesday by Finance Minister Bill Morneau is greatly anticipated. But despite the high web search traffic, the numbers suggest the budget might not be as hotly anticipated as some past budgets delivered by the Conservatives.

One reason may be that Canadians aren't too worried about what may or may not be in a budget brought in by a popular government.

You can read the rest of this article on Canadians' interest in the budget, as well as some discussion of the new Abacus Data poll on federal politics, here.

The Pollcast: The importance of the Saskatchewan leaders' debate

As the campaign reaches its halfway point, Wednesday's leaders' debate between Saskatchewan Party Leader Brad Wall and NDP Leader Cam Broten could be decisive. That is, if people in Saskatchewan haven't already made up their minds.

Joining me again to break down the state of the election campaign is the CBC's Stefani Langenegger.

You can listen to the latest episode of the Pollcast here.

Manitoba PCs hold lead in new poll as NDP struggles to gain traction

A new poll shows that Brian Pallister's Progressive Conservatives are still leading in the first week of the Manitoba provincial election campaign, though a large number of undecided voters in the poll might give hope to Greg Selinger's beleaguered New Democrats

But without gains outside of their traditional stronghold of the provincial capital the NDP will have only a very tenuous shot at re-election.

You can read the rest of this article on the latest Manitoba projections and the poll from Mainstreet Research here.

Liberals still well ahead in Abacus federal poll

The latest federal numbers from Abacus Data show the Liberals continue to be in fine form, though their honeymoon surge at the end of 2015 has dissipated a little.

The Liberals led in the poll with 45%, followed by the Conservatives at 28% and the NDP at 17%. Compared to Abacus's previous poll from November, the Liberals are down four points, the Conservatives are up four points, and the NDP is up one.

This follows the pattern also recorded by Forum Research since the election — the Liberals down a little from towering heights as the Conservatives recover their base of supporters. The NDP, however, remains at a very low level of support.

In other words, the gains the Liberals have made since the election have come from the NDP. As I've written in a few recent columns for the CBC, that is potentially a sustainable path to a few terms in government for the Liberals as it replicates their numbers from the Jean Chrétien years. It may seem like the NDP is in better form than at that time, but in reality what we're looking at is a lot of Bloc support from the 1990s and early 2000s now in the NDP column. That doesn't hurt the Liberals much at all.

Abacus also has some numbers on the government's approval rating. It remains high, though disapproval is catching up on approval (both are up).

One of the interesting bits from Abacus's polling is the breakdown of where Canadians place themselves on the political spectrum. The Liberals are doing disproportionately well in the centre and on the centre-left, while the Conservatives are doing disproportionately well on the centre-right and right. The NDP is doing best on the left and centre-left, but it does not dominate this part of the spectrum like the other parties dominate theirs.

I asked David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, if he could break down each party's support by the left-right spectrum. He obliged:

This chart shows just how much of the country is in the centre (or at least thinks it is). But it is also a very revealing look at the make-up of each party.

The Liberals are indeed the 'centrist' party, but they are pulled much more to the left (30%) than they are to the right (12%).

The Conservatives are much more of a centre/centre-right party than the Liberals are a centre/centre-left party, with a substantial right-wing. Just 8% of Conservatives consider themselves left-of-centre, while 49% think of themselves as right-of-centre.

The NDP still has a large portion of supporters considering themselves centrists, but they are pulled to the left more than the Liberals (39%, including 14% who are just on the left).

It shows with numbers what we already know — useful since it backs up conjecture with hard evidence. The Liberals are a centrist party that leans towards the left. The Conservatives are a centre-right party, and the NDP is a centre-left party.

The results for the Greens are illuminating. The Greens are sometimes considered a bit of a centrist party when the environment is left out of things, but their supporters do not seem to agree entirely. The party is clearly centre-left, with the largest portion of people who consider themselves leftists among the five parties. The Greens look a lot more like the NDP than they do the Liberals, though the Greens do have the largest proportion of right-of-centre supporters, by a narrow margin, apart from the Conservatives.

The Bloc is also a centre-left party, sitting somewhere on the spectrum between the Liberals and the NDP. And for all the noise about the niqab, only 9% of Bloc supporters seem themselves as right-of-centre.

Nevertheless, for the Bloc and Greens we're talking about small sample sizes. But it does help us put them on the political spectrum: from left-to-right, this chart suggests the parties should be placed with the NDP first, then the Greens, Bloc, Liberals, and Conservatives.

On an unrelated note, I wrote about a new by-election poll for Oshawa–Whitby here.

More Albertans have negative view of Notley, positive view of Jean

An interesting poll by Abacus Data for Progress Alberta, a progressive interest group in Alberta, was released this week about the views of Albertans on themselves, their leaders, and some of the policies the new NDP government has put into place.

Where Albertans place themselves on the political spectrum, and where they place other Albertans, is particularly interesting. You can check out the full report from Abacus Data here.

But for our interests, the views Albertans have on the province's party leaders is notable. For one, Rachel Notley is seen as more progressive than the NDP, while Brian Jean is seen as more centrist than the Wildrose party.

Overall, 61% of Albertans said Notley was progressive or leans progressive, compared to 16% who thought she was conservative or leans conservative. Jean scored 15% on being progressive, while 47% thought he was conservative. The remainders considered these leaders to be in the centre.

Of the three main party leaders, Notley did score the highest on Albertans having a positive impression of her. She had 32% on that mark, but 38% said they had a negative impression of her. Another 25% were neutral while 5% did not know.

Not terrible numbers for Notley, but the honeymoon does seem to be over. Her best results were in Edmonton, where she had a 43% to 27% split on positive/negative impressions. That worsened to 30% to 36% in Calgary, while between 49% and 57% of Albertans outside of Calgary and Edmonton had negative views of the premier.

Jean is still largely unknown, with 35% saying they have a neutral impression of the Wildrose leader and another 23% being unsure. Of those with a firm opinion, 24% had a positive impression of Jean and 18% had a negative impression.

Ric McIver, interim leader of the Progressive Conservatives (who may be mulling a run for the permanent position), is much more unknown: 65% were either neutral or undecided on him. Another 16% had a positive impression, while 19% had a negative impression.

The poll has some interesting findings on some of the moves the NDP has made, and I encourage you to check out the Abacus report. There are, of course, the caveats that this poll was commissioned by a group with a political point-of-view, and that should be taken into account when reading Progress Alberta's own analysis. But the Abacus report itself is about the numbers, and there some fascinating ones there.

Liberals still lead in Newfoundland and Labrador, NDP making gains

If the Liberals are looking for some good news on the polling front, Newfoundland and Labrador is probably the best place to look. The latest poll from Abacus Data for VOCM shows the federal (and provincial) Liberals are still well in front in the province, the only one the party won in the 2011 federal election.

It means that most of the contests in Newfoundland and Labrador should be easy enough to call, with the exception of one. As far as political drama goes on the Rock, it could all be limited to the battle for St. John's South - Mount Pearl.

The Liberals led in this poll with 53% support, down five points since Abacus Data's last poll of February 17-25.

The New Democrats leap-frogged the Conservatives into second place, jumping 12 points to 28%. The Tories fell eight points to 15%.

Another 3% said they would vote for another party (recall that in 2011 the Greens fell just short of 1% in this province), while 14% were undecided.

The trend has been a very positive one for the New Democrats, who were at just 13% in Newfoundland and Labrador in Abacus's poll of July-August 2014. The Conservatives have been on a consistent slide since then, down 12 points overall. That the Liberals are down just one point from that poll one year ago suggests the recent decrease is, in relative terms, very modest.

What isn't modest is the increase that Thomas Mulcair has experienced in the province. In February, just 28% of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians said they had a positive impression of the NDP leader. That has jumped 15 points to 43%, putting him in a tie with Justin Trudeau (down three points). But Mulcair's negative rating, at 14%, is a third less than Trudeau's 21%.

The two are miles ahead of Stephen Harper, though. Only 14% have a positive impression of the Prime Minister, while 69% have a negative one. And that latter score is up five points since February. The Conservatives don't stand much of a chance anywhere in the province.

The regional results demonstrate that quite clearly. The Conservatives did no better than 21%, in eastern Newfoundland, and that put them 46 points behind the Liberals. The New Democrats, trailing by at least 34 points outside of the Avalon Peninsula and St. John's, are also not in the running outside of the capital, where they experienced a significant boost since the February poll.

And that pretty much sums up much of the race in Newfoundland and Labrador. The Liberals look very safe in Labrador and in the three ridings west of the Avalon Peninsula (which is pretty much how Abacus divided up its poll).

With the province wide numbers, and looking at the seat projection model, the Liberals would likely win Avalon quite comfortably by some 20 points. St. John's East should still be a landslide for the NDP's Jack Harris (50-60 points).

St. John's South - Mount Pearl is where it is interesting. The model gives the Liberals the slight edge, at 43% for Seamus O'Regan to 40% for the NDP's incumbent MP Ryan Cleary. But that is a tiny advantage considering the margin of error of the Abacus poll itself and the margin of error of the seat projection model. It means the riding is a legitimate toss-up, and the only game in town.

Having a Ball, ball in Ball's court, a whole new Ball game, etc.

There will be another election in Newfoundland and Labrador this year, the provincial one scheduled for November 30. Abacus polled this race too, and found virtually identical numbers to the federal contest. The provincial Liberals scored 53% as well, with the governing Progressive Conservatives slightly more popular than their federal cousins at 21%, and the provincial NDP slightly less popular than their federal brothers and sisters at 25%.

The provincial regional results were also very similar to those at the federal level.

But the breakdown of how voters feel about the three provincial leaders is worth a closer look.

Dwight Ball of the Liberals is the most popular leader, with the highest positive rating at 44% and the lowest negative rating at 16%. That is a slight worsening from his scores in February, but within the margin of error.

Earle McCurdy of the NDP also has some good numbers, particularly for such a new leader. His 36% positive rating is better than Premier Paul Davis, and his 19% negative rating is quite low.

At first glance, the numbers for Davis aren't so bad. His negative rating is far lower than Harper's, and a good 38% of people still have a firm opinion of him to form. His positive rating, at 32%, is not so far behind the others.

But the trend lines are bad. His positive rating has held steady, but his negative rating has ballooned from 11% in February. All of the people who have formed a new opinion of Davis over the last few months have formed a negative one. That is not what you want heading into an election.

Newfoundlanders and Labradorians may not be giving Davis much of a chance. Fully two-thirds think the Liberals will win in November, and 63% agree that the Liberals are 'ready to be government'. That contrasts sharply to the 37% who say the same about the NDP, but a strong showing in October's federal election may have an impact. It could be an interesting election yet!

Conservatives and Liberals effectively tied

Two new polls, both showing the Conservatives and Liberals only one point apart (and to the advantage of the Tories), have nudged the vote projection into a virtual tie. That means the Conservative seat lead, which stood at 10 on Jan. 13, has now increased to 17. Nevertheless, the Conservatives are no closer to majority territory, and in fact still overlap a great deal with the Liberals.

The Liberals are still narrowly ahead in the aggregate, with 33.4% support to 33.2% for the Conservatives. That is a small drop of 0.3 points for the Liberals since the last update, and a gain of 0.8 for the Conservatives. The New Democrats are up 0.7 points to 21.3%.

In terms of seats, the Conservatives still lead with 139 (up three), or a range of between 122 and 155. Interestingly, the high range for the Tories has not moved at all. Instead, only the lower range has increased, from 117. It means the odds that the Conservatives would win fewer seats than the Liberals on current polling levels have lessened, but the Tories are no closer to the magic number of 170.

The Liberals have dropped four seats and their high range has fallen from 144 to 138. Their low range of 107 seats, however, is steady.

The NDP is up two seats to 74, but its low and high ranges have narrowed from 54 to 87 seats on Jan. 13 to 60 to 84 seats now.

The Bloc's high range has slipped from nine to four seats.

Let's take a look at the two new polls added to the model.

The poll by Forum, published in the Toronto Star on the weekend, put the Conservatives up two points (since Forum's last poll of Jan. 5-6) to 35% and the Liberals down three points to 34%.

The NDP was unchanged at 20%, while the Greens and Bloc were each up one point to 6% and 5%, respectively.

None of these shifts were outside the margin of error.

Abacus showed similar stability, with the Conservatives and Liberals each down one point to 33% and 32%, respectively, since Abacus's last poll of Dec. 18-20. The NDP was up two points to 24%, while the Greens were down one to 5% and the Bloc was unchanged at 4%.

All of these shifts were also within the margin of error (of a probabilistic sample of similar size), but it is clear from both Forum's and Abacus's trend lines that the Liberals are drooping to the benefit of the Conservatives (if not in absolute terms, at least in relative terms).

This is also the first time since Justin Trudeau became Liberal leader that two consecutive polls by two different pollsters have shown a Conservative edge.

Forum does have a regional oddity in its numbers, though. In Quebec, Forum gave the Conservatives 26% support, putting them in second place ahead of the NDP (25%) and behind the Liberals (27%). That is absurdly high for the Conservatives (you need to go back to before the 2008 election to find the Conservatives routinely polling at that level), but Forum has often had higher numbers than usual for the Conservatives in Quebec. And broadly speaking, the Tories have been experiencing an uptick in the province, so perhaps this is a product of that.

Both Forum and Abacus showed a close race in Ontario, the Conservatives ahead in B.C., Alberta, and the Prairies, and the Liberals in front in Atlantic Canada. Quebec was the bone of contention.

The projection model is showing some interesting regional fluctuations as well. In British Columbia, the Liberals have now fallen to second place, though they are unchanged at 31%. The Conservatives are up 3.1 points to 31% as well, and are narrowly ahead of the Liberals. Their seat range has improved from 13-18 to 15-22. The NDP has dropped by 2.2 points to 24%, and their range from 10-13 to 6-11.

The Liberals are sliding in the Prairies. They are now at 29%, and have been consistently dropping since mid-December, when they were at 34%. The NDP has benefited, improving from 17% in mid-December to 23% now.

Vote projection in Quebec

In Quebec, the Liberals dropped 1.2 points (and from 20-30 seats to 19-26 seats) to 28%, putting them narrowly behind the NDP, which was up 1.6 points to 28% (and from 29-47 seats to 34-46). The Liberals have been sliding here as well, having had 34% support in mid-October.

But it is the Conservatives who have taken advantage, up from 13% in early November to 20% now. They have pushed the Bloc into fourth place, and are now estimated to be in play in 11-16 seats.

A couple regions to keep an eye on, then. Overall, things remain quite close. The Conservatives are inching up in the national tally, but have actually dropped a little in Ontario. That is what is keeping them from pulling ahead more decisively in the seat projection.

Liberals potentially most vulnerable on Iraq mission vote

While MPs debate what kind of role Canada should play in the fight against ISIS, polls suggest a majority of Canadians are supportive of the country joining the United States and its coalition partners in a combat mission against the Islamic militants.

To read the rest of the article looking at what polls are saying about Canadians' views on the mission in the Middle East, visit CBC.ca.

In the article, I briefly look at the partisan divide on the issue. I thought it might be worthwhile to explore that a little more deeply here.

The chart above comes from Abacus Data's report, breaking down responses by party support for the question of whether Canadians supported sending military advisers to Iraq.

Conservatives were the most enthusiastic, with 68% strongly or mostly in support of sending the advisers. Just 23% were in opposition.

Liberals and New Democrats saw things roughly equally, with 56% of Liberals and 55% of New Democrats in support. Opposition, at 29% and 31%, respectively, was also virtually identical.

Where opposition was strongest was among supporters of the Bloc Québécois. Just 18% supported sending the advisers, while 65% were in opposition. Greens were split, at 41% for and 34% against.

But what about sending combat aircraft, which the Prime Minister is suggesting Canada do?

We find similar divisions here, though with less agreement among Liberals and New Democrats.

Conservatives were 67% in favour of sending jets, with 25% opposed.

Liberals were also strongly in favour, with 55% in support and 36% in opposition.

A plurality of New Democrats supported sending jets, but not a majority: 49% in favour, with 39% in opposition.

Greens and supporters of the Bloc were against sending jets.

While the order of enthusiasm of the three parties does align with the views of their supporters, both the Liberals and New Democrats seem to be somewhat offside on these issues. The NDP is perhaps less vulnerable, as its supporters were the least likely to view a mission in Iraq favourably. But the Liberals may find themselves offside - their voters were only slightly less favourable to hitting ISIS than Conservatives were.

But what if respondents were given the option between a combat role, an advisory role, or no role at all? Angus Reid Global looked at this.

When given the choice, sending advisers is the preferred option by Conservatives, Liberals, and New Democrats. But again we see the same order of intensity: the Conservatives most favourable to some sort of role, the Liberals in between, and the NDP the least enthusiastic.

Among Conservatives, fully 81% supported a role of some kind, with 55% of them preferring advisers and 45% supportive of military intervention.

Among Liberals, support for a role of some kind totaled 72%, with 58% of them favouring advisers over military intervention.

And among New Democrats, still 63% favoured a role of some kind, with 62% of them preferring military advisers. Again we see the same order of support: Conservatives most, Liberals next, NDP last.

Non-voters, interestingly, were the least supportive of any sort of mission. Perhaps if they'd like to actually have a say in whether these things happen, they should go out and vote.

The New Democrats are following their more pacifist traditions, and their supporters are the most ambivalent, so the NDP is best positioned to be the dove on this issue. But these numbers suggest that the Liberals may have been better off choosing a more moderate position on the mission in Iraq.

Whether or not Justin Trudeau has miscalculated, however, will depend on several factors: the success or failure of the mission, of course, but also whether this is an important issue to voters. The polls did not investigate this question, but we may see some fallout in the voting intentions numbers in the coming weeks.

Two new polls give Liberals wide lead

Both Ipsos Reid and Abacus Data reported new national polling numbers yesterday, and both showed the Liberals leading the Conservatives by six or seven points. The results corroborate some of the other recent numbers we have seen. These suggest that the Liberals have rebounded, at the expense of the Conservatives, from what looked like a slump-in-the-making at the end of the spring.

The Ipsos Reid poll, conducted for Global News, was the first we have heard from the company at the federal level since April 17-22. Since then, the Liberals were up five points to 38% support, a jump that is outside the margin of error of a probabilistic sample of similar size.

The Conservatives were down two points to 31%, while the New Democrats were unchanged at 24%.

The Greens and Bloc Québécois had 3% apiece.

Abacus Data's last poll was conducted June 25-July 3. They have not recorded any major shifts since then, but the Liberals were up one point to 35%, followed by the Conservatives at 29% (down two points) and the NDP at 22% (up one point).

The Greens stood at 7% support, while the Bloc was at 5%.

Both pollsters recorded similar gender breakdowns. The Liberals were up by two points among men in the Abacus poll. The margin was four points according to Ipsos. Among women, both firms put the gap at 10 points between the Liberals and Conservatives.

I've highlighted above the three largest regions, but only in Quebec do the numbers look very close. There, both polls have the Liberals ahead of the NDP (echoing the results of the latest big-sample CROP poll) with the Bloc Québécois well behind.

The dissimilarities in British Columbia and Ontario are, on the face of it, important. In B.C., it is either a close Conservative-Liberal contest, or a Liberal lead with the NDP in second. In Ontario, it is either a wide Liberal lead or a virtual tie.

But if we take into account the margins of error (practically speaking, if not theoretically speaking since these are not probabilistic samples) we see that the disparities are really not so significant.

The chart below shows, simply calculated, where the two polls overlap for each of the parties. It gives a good indication of where things stand in each region.

Nationally, the Liberals are somewhere between 35% and 38%, while the Conservatives are clearly in second with between 28% and 32%. The NDP is in third with between 21% and 25%.

The Liberals are probably leading in British Columbia, where they are mostly ahead when taking into account the overlap. The NDP is probably in third, but overall the race is close.

The Liberals also probably lead in Ontario with between 35% to 41% against the Conservatives' 30% to 37%, and are most likely ahead in Quebec, with 31% to 41% against the 22% to 32% of the NDP. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are indisputably in front.

The Conservatives are comfortably in the lead in Alberta, but are well off their historical pace. They are also probably in the lead in the Prairies, but it is interesting that at the low end of the Tories' range and the high end of the range for the Liberals and NDP, the three parties are tied.

The Ipsos and Abacus polls would result in very different national scenarios in terms of seats. The Ipsos poll would give the Liberals 150 seats to 121 for the Conservatives and 67 for the NDP - enough to give the Liberals a comfortable minority government.

The Abacus poll is far closer, however, with 135 seats for the Liberals, 122 for the Conservatives, and 70 for the NDP.

If we combine the two results, taking the best and worst numbers in each of the regions, the Conservatives could conceivably come out ahead in the seat count with 140 to 133 for the Liberals. That would be on the margins of what is likely, just as a far larger Liberal victory of 152 seats to 103 for the Tories would be. But with these kinds of numbers, there is a great deal of scope for variation in the seat count. The Liberals need to be over the 40% mark to be in a good position to win a majority government.

The numbers above do give an indication of where the battlegrounds will be. For the Conservatives, much depends on their results in British Columbia and Ontario. For the NDP, it is Quebec and B.C. that are most important, while Ontario will probably make or break the election for the Liberals (I'd throw Quebec into that as well, but the Ipsos and Abacus polls were consistent there for the party).

Also of note is Alberta. With the Conservatives dropping significantly in the province to around 50%, it opens up the potential for a number of seats in Edmonton and Calgary to go to either the Liberals or NDP. It likely won't determine the fate of the government, but the eight-seat range for the Tories above could turn out to be very important. Admittedly, however, if the Conservatives are reduced to 21 seats in Alberta they are likely not doing very well in the rest of the country.

The only pollster that has been very active in 2014 that we have yet to hear from this summer is Angus Reid Global. As Angus Reid has had the race far closer than anyone else has, it will be interesting to see if they will change their tune or continue to set themselves apart from the pack.

Provincial Liberals still leading in Newfoundland and Labrador

As the next provincial election in Newfoundland and Labrador will occur within 12 months of the Progressive Conservatives finding someone willing to take on the job, the province might be the next to go to the polls after New Brunswick in September. The latest survey from Abacus Data for VOCM suggests that the Liberals are well positioned to win when that vote comes.

The Liberals led in the poll with 48% support, down one point from when Abacus was last in the field at the end of January. The Progressive Conservatives were unchanged at 34%, while the New Democrats were up one point to 16% support.

Voting intentions look rock solid on the Rock, as they have hardly budged since last fall, and these numbers from Abacus are well within the ballpark of the Corporate Research Associates' last two polls.

The poll reveals that roughly one-third of people who voted for the Tories and New Democrats in 2011 have gone over to the Liberals, and among Newfoundlanders and Labradorians over the age of 60 the Liberal edge extends to 57% to 29% for the Tories.

There are only slight regional variations throughout the province, with the Liberals enjoying a large lead everywhere. On the Avalon Peninsula and in St. John's, the Liberals stand at 47% to 34% for the Tories and 19% for the NDP. In the eastern and central parts of the province, the Liberals have 48% support to 37% for the Tories and 10% for the NDP. And in the western end of the island and in Labrador, the Liberal lead is the largest at 52% to 30% for the PCs and 16% for the NDP.

The Liberals should be able to win about 26 seats with these numbers, with the Tories taking 17 and the New Democrats winning five. But even these numbers flatter the two other parties, as the Liberals have made serious inroads in Avalon and St. John's, regions where the party took a tiny portion of the vote in 2011.

If an election were to be held tomorrow, everything would point to a big Liberal victory. All of the fundamentals are in their favour. Fully two-thirds of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians say they would consider voting for the party, whereas the ceiling for the Tories stands at 52% and that of the NDP at just 39%. This shows just how far the NDP has fallen. Between mid-2012 and mid-2013, the party actually had around 35% to 40% support. Now, that portion of voters will go no further than consider the NDP as an option.

Of those who thought healthcare to be the top issue facing the province (29%), the Liberals were seen as the best party to tackle it by 39%, against 24% for the Tories and just 8% for the NDP. On the question of the economy and jobs, usually an election-deciding issue, 42% of those who considered it the top issue felt the Liberals best able to handle it, compared to 33% for the PCs and 7% for the NDP.

The most lopsided result for the Liberals, though, was among those who considered government accountability and leadership to be the top issue. The party was the choice of 48% of the 10% of respondents who had selected this as their major concern, followed by the PCs at just 13%. The governing party has taken a huge credibility hit, even if it is still relatively competitive on the question of the economy.

Abacus says there will be leadership numbers out tomorrow. Dwight Ball has polled very well in other surveys by CRA and Angus Reid, so we should expect to see something similar in the next report. What would be interesting would be some figures on the PC leadership race, one of the oddest races in recent memory considering that we are now in Round 2 with a whole new cast of characters.

It could be a close race. Paul Davis has 12 caucus supporters to date, according to the current Wikipedia tally, with a combined total of 24 election wins under their belts, while John Ottenheimer has seven supporters with 16 election wins and Steve Kent has six MHAs with 13 wins altogether.

But will any of them be able to knock Ball from the lead? Maybe we'll get a clue tomorrow, but for now it looks like the next election will be the Liberals' to lose.

Party support by age and gender

The polls currently suggest that the Liberals enjoy a small lead over the Conservatives nationwide, with the New Democrats running in third place. But when the Canadian population is broken down by age and gender, a different story can be told - including how the political mood has shifted since 2011.

During the Kickstarter campaign at the end of 2013, one of the backer rewards was the option to choose a topic of analysis I would look at here. The first request I received, from Keith Neuman of the Environics Institute, was to take a look at federal support broken down by demographics. This is that analysis.

Before getting to it, a few words about the project behind this analysis. Tapping into the Pulse: Political public opinion polling in Canada, 2013 was published as an ebook earlier this year, and is a retrospective look at politics and polling in 2013. The ebook is listed at $4.99, and can be downloaded directly from Gumroad, Amazon (for your Kindle) and Kobo (for your Kobo eReader).

To give this exercise some context, it would be useful to know how Canadians voted in 2011 by their demographic profile. There are ways to estimate this, such as exit polling or post-election polling, but it is impossible to know with certainty how exactly Canadian demographic groups voted in the last election.

I decided to look at the post-election polling conducted by Abacus Data. From May 2011, just after the election had been held, to August 2011, Abacus Data conducted three polls on federal voting intentions. The numbers matched up quite closely to the 2011 federal election result: an average of 39.6% for the Conservatives (exactly on the mark), 32.2% for the NDP (+1.6), 17.2% for the Liberals (-1.7), and 5.3% for the Greens (+1.4).

Using these three polls, and adjusting for the discrepancy between the election results and the polling numbers, we can get a good idea of how Canadians voted in the last election according to their age and gender.

Not all pollsters release full demographic information, and few use the same age brackets. So to compare voting intentions today to the last election, I've again focused on three polls from Abacus Data (in order to get a large enough sample with which to work). These polls were conducted between January and July 2014. That is a long period of time, but the numbers in Abacus's polling were consistent and, overall, there has been little movement in the polls in 2014.

The Liberals averaged 34% in those three polls, against 29% for the Conservatives, 23.3% for the NDP, and 6.3% for the Greens.

Now that we have these baselines, let's look at the demographic breakdowns.

Though the Conservatives won 40% of the vote overall, beating the NDP by nine points in 2011, the New Democrats might have taken more of the female vote than did the Tories, at 36% to 35%. The Liberals captured just 19%, with 4% of it going to the Greens.

The Liberals have made huge inroads among women, up 15 points. This came from both the NDP (12 points) and the Conservatives (7 points).

Interestingly, men and women's support is now rather uniform. The Liberals have 34% support among men, with 30% supporting the Conservatives and 23% the NDP. But in 2011, the Conservatives had an enormous advantage among male voters, with 45% support to just 26% for the NDP and 19% for the Liberals.

The Liberals have again picked up 15 points here, but most of that came from the Conservatives, who are down 15 points. The NDP has slipped three points.

Looking at the numbers this way gives us an indication of where support is coming from for the Liberals. They have improved their position equally among both men and women, but that female vote came from the NDP and the male vote came from the Conservatives. The effect has been to level the playing field, with each party garnering roughly half of their supporters from each gender. An interesting shift.

It should come as no surprise that the NDP won the youngest cohort of voters in 2011, with 38% support against 28% for the Conservatives and 20% for the Liberals. Today, however, the Liberals lead in this group with 34%, up 14 points. The NDP has dropped 11 points to 27% while the Conservatives have fallen seven points to 21%. The Greens are up four points to 10% among 18- to 29-year-old Canadians.

In 2011, 30- to 44-year-olds were somewhat representative of the population as a whole: 39% voted Conservative, 33% voted NDP, and 17% voted for the Liberals. They are still broadly representative, with 35% now supporting the Liberals, 27% the Conservatives, and 23% the NDP.

The Conservatives have suffered most among this group, dropping 12 points. The NDP has also fallen, by 10 points, while the Liberals have picked up 18 points - more than doubling their support among these voters.

This is a target group for all parties, considering the preponderance of family-friendly language used and family-focused policies proposed. It would appear that the Conservatives did a good job attracting these voters in 2011, but the Liberals are now managing it best.

The next group, who may be nearing retirement and have children heading to university, voted solidly Conservative in 2011: 41% to 30% for the NDP and 18% for the Liberals.

Now, this group is mostly split between the Liberals (33%) and the Conservatives (30%), with 22% supporting the NDP. The Liberals have picked up 15 points among these voters, with the Conservatives down 11 and the NDP down eight.

Finally, there is the oldest cohort of Canadians, an important demographic as they can be most counted upon to cast a ballot. They overwhelmingly supported the Conservatives in 2011, with 50% backing the party. The NDP took just 23% of the vote among this group, while the Liberals took 20%.

The NDP has held firm at 23%, but the Liberals have gained 15 points to move into a tie with the Conservatives, down 15 points, at 35%. If the Tories cannot win this voting block, they will not win the election.

When we break it down by age, we can see where the parties have suffered losses. The Conservatives have generally lost in uniform proportions, though perhaps took a bit more of a hit among older Canadians. The New Democrats have lost primarily younger voters, who have gone over to the Liberals, while older Canadians who backed the New Democrats in 2011 are mostly sticking with the party. The Liberals have generally gained in similar proportions across all demographic groups, but may have gotten their biggest uptick among Canadians who, coincidentally or not, are about the same age as Justin Trudeau.

All of this is relatively intuitive. The Conservatives are traditionally the party of older male voters, while the NDP would be expected to be the party of younger, primarily female Canadians. The Liberals enjoy uniform support levels among both genders and all age demographics, which seems to align with the broad appeal the party is seeking and is best placed to capture as the party in the centre. The Liberals remain in the best position one year before the next election. These numbers make it clear which demographic groups the NDP and Conservatives need to re-capture if they hope to win in 2015.

Ontario race remains tight with days to go

It is coming down to the wire in one of the closest elections this site has covered. The latest polls added to the model all suggest an extremely close race, with the margin among all eligible voters being three points or less and the margin among likely voters being less than two points. It will make for a nail-biting finish, particularly for your correspondent.

The Liberals are now narrowly in front with 37.3%, or between 36% and 41%, followed by the Progressive Conservatives at 36.5%, or between 35% and 40%. The New Democrats have up-ticked to 19.8%, or between 18% and 21%, while the Greens stand at 5.2%, or between 4% and 7% support.

The Liberals have dropped away from majority territory and are pegged to take 51 seats, or between 42 and 60 seats, while the PCs sit at 37 seats (or between 32 and 45). The NDP is now back up to 19 seats, or between 13 and 22.

This will be the last update before the final projection update, which will be posted either late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. The final analysis, either way, will be up on Thursday morning.

It really is very close, but it is one thing to have a close race and another to have a race that might not end up being very close at all. The polls suggest a very tight margin between the Liberals and PCs, but the likely voter model from Ipsos Reid gives it to the PCs in a near landslide. And support for the NDP is either well above their 2011 performance, or well below it, which has a profound effect on the seat numbers for the Liberals and PCs. Unless the final polls show a move all in one direction, we should be going into Election Day with little comfort.

The three latest polls, from Abacus Data for the Sun News Network, EKOS Research for iPolitics, and Oracle for ECO, used a mix of methodologies. They all came to the same general conclusion for the two leading parties: either a tie or a statistically insignificant lead. The Liberals get either 34% or 35% in these polls, the PCs between 31% and 36%. That is rather tight.

For the NDP, though, the range extends from 20% to 28%. That is a very wide range, and spans everything from a waste-of-time election for the NDP or a major breakthrough.

It is interesting to compare the trend lines, however. Abacus was last in the field May 28-31, just before the debate on June 3. Since then, the Liberals dropped three points, the Tories picked up one, and the NDP gained four.

EKOS has been conducting a rolling poll since before the debate, but if we look at its May 29-June 1 numbers, done at mostly the same time as Abacus, we see similar movement: a drop of four points for the Liberals, a gain of one for the Tories, and a gain of three for the NDP. It will be interesting to see if, in the last numbers put out by these polls, we will see things continuing to move in the same direction.

Adam Radwanski in the Globe and Mail today writes about the internal polls being done by the Liberals and Tories. Both now seem to expect a minority government in which they will hold sway, but more interestingly perhaps is that both internal polls have shown an uptick for the PCs since the debate. That jives with the public polls. The projection, for example, had the Tories at just 33.8% in polls done up to June 2.

Abacus had a series of other questions included in their poll that may shed some more light on these horserace numbers.

32% of Ontarians expect the Liberals to win, while 25% think the Tories will prevail. That is rather close, and suggests that voters may go into the polling booths expecting a very tight result. That might encourage strategic voting, which could hurt the NDP and Greens.

On the other hand, just 24% think the Wynne government deserves re-election, a drop of three points since last week, while 54% think it is time for a change, a jump of six points.

Interest in the campaign is growing, as 42% told Abacus they had given quite a lot of thought to the campaign, up from 32% when Abacus first polled in the early stages of the race. Interestingly, and perhaps depressingly for those in the media, the proportion of respondents saying they are following the news concerning the campaign very closely has hardly changed (24%).

Counter-acting the benefits that Tim Hudak has probably gained as a result of the debate (which Abacus's respondents said he won) is that the percentage of Ontarians saying they have a negative opinion of the PC leader has jumped to its highest of the campaign so far, at 52%. No wonder, then, that the Liberals are going after NDP voters with the Hudak boogeyman. Will it work? According to Abacus, NDP/OLP swing voters favour Kathleen Wynne as premier over Andrea Horwath by a margin of 48% to 26%. Oracle, meanwhile, showed that 46% of non-PC voters were casting a ballot against Hudak, rather than for another leader or party.

It is a dizzying array of pros and cons for each leader. Plausible, defensible, and ultimately accurate arguments as to why Wynne or Hudak will win (or that the NDP will out-perform expectations) on Thursday could be written up, and proponents of either could only reasonably agree to disagree. A terrific situation for democracy and election-watchers, a horrible one for pollsters.

Two new polls give Ontario Liberals the lead

After two polls at the end of last week gave a narrow lead to the Progressive Conservatives (or a wide one, if only looking at likely voters), the two latest polls now give the Liberals a lead, and a somewhat wider one than the Tories had previously enjoyed. It may be confusing, but this is what a close race with a disengaged electorate looks like.

The projection has now swung marginally in favour of the Liberals, with a 4.6-point gain to 36.7% support (or between 35% and 40%). The PCs dropped 2.8 points to 35.5% (or between 34% and 39%), while the New Democrats are down 3.3 points to 20.3% (or between 19% and 22%). Support for the Greens stands at 6.3%, or between 5% and 8%.

The Liberals have also moved ahead in the seat count, with a 10-seat gain to 47, or between 41 and 54. The PCs slipped six seats to 43 (or between 37 and 48) while the NDP was down four seats to 17 (or between 14 and 21). The likely projection is thus a minority Liberal government, though a majority is just possible and a PC plurality is also in the cards. It remains very close, and even small variations in support can swing a few seats.

The chart above, which represents each day a poll was in the field, the confidence intervals of those polls, and the trend lines of each individual pollster, suggests the Liberals may be on the upswing at this stage of the campaign, while the Tories, after a mid-point slump, have settled in. The NDP could be holding steady or dropping.

Though the poll-to-poll shift from Abacus's last survey of May 21-24 is within the margin of error (of a probabilistic sample of similar size), the trendlines are moving towards the Liberals. They were up three points to 37%, the second consecutive poll from Abacus in which the Liberals have been picking up steam. Both the Tories and NDP have been dropping in two consecutive polls, this time down two points to 30% for the PCs and one point to 24% for the NDP.

The Greens had 7% support, up one point, while undecideds were down two points to 13%.

Among likely voters, the Liberals were up one point to 37% and the PCs were up two to 35%. The NDP fell two points to 22%. The Tories have been wobbling back and forth among likely voters in Abacus's three polls, but the Liberals have been moving up and the NDP down.

The only regional shift worth noting was a 10-point gain for the Liberals in Toronto, where they led with 49%. They were also in front in the GTA/Hamilton-Niagara region with 35%, and were tied with the PCs in eastern Ontario with 38%. The PCs were narrowly ahead in the southwest with 31%, while the NDP was well ahead in the north with 47%.

The Abacus poll had a few other extra tidbits that were interesting. When asked who they expect to win, 32% of Ontarians picked the Liberals, while just 22% chose the PCs and 7% the NDP (39% said they did not know). The Liberals do seem to be winning the swing vote. Among three-way swing voters, the Liberals were ahead with 45% to 20% for the PCs and 18% for the NDP. Among OLP/PC swing voters, the Liberals led with 52% to 40%, while among OLP/NDP swing voters the Liberals were in front with 57% to 34%. The PCs remain ahead among PC/NDP swing voters, with 62% to 35% for the NDP.

The EKOS poll also pointed to a Liberal victory, with the party up 2.7 points to 38.5% from the last survey. The PCs were down 3.7 points to 33.7%, while the NDP was down 3.5 points to just 16.9%, the fourth consecutive drop in EKOS's polling. That is a very low score for the NDP, however, and must be at the low end of the margin of error.

The Greens were down 4.1 points to 7.8%, while 18% of Ontarians said they were undecided.

None of these shifts were statistically significant, though the sustained weakening of the NDP is worth noting.

EKOS is supposed to publish its likely voter estimates today, and will be reporting on a daily basis going forward. We can probably expect the likely voter numbers to boost the PCs, as the margin between the two parties shrank to one point among 45-64 year olds (36% to 35%) and flipped to a four-point edge for the Tories among voters 65 or older (40% to 36%).

The only regional shift outside the margin of error was in southwest Ontario, where the Tories were up 9.6 points to 39.6% and the NDP was down 10.2 points to 11.2%. That seems like a very anomalous result, as the southwest has been one of the strongest polling areas for the NDP. Also, it puts them just behind the Greens, and Abacus (using the same definition for the region and polling over most of the same period) put the three parties in a tie with around 30% support.

Elsewhere, the Liberals led with 47% in Toronto and 41% in the GTA suburbs, while the Tories were ahead in eastern Ontario with 41% and the north/central part of the province with 39%.

The Abacus and EKOS polls were quite similar in Toronto, the other region where their definitions are identical. The numbers themselves were broadly the same, considering the sample size, at 47% to 49% for the OLP, 24% to 25% for the PCs, and 17% to 20% for the NDP. The trends were also heading in the same direction, with the Liberals gaining and both the NDP and PCs slipping.

So, the stage is set for tonight's debate. Both Kathleen Wynne and Tim Hudak have a lot riding on it, as with the race as close as it is a good or bad performance could break the deadlock. For Andrea Horwath, she needs to finally build some momentum as only nine days remain before the vote.

Ontario Liberals inch ahead in Abacus poll

The new poll by Abacus Data for the Sun News Network shows the Liberals narrowly edging out the Tories among both all eligible and likely voters, part of a trend that seems to be building in favour of the Liberals - or, perhaps more accurately, against the PCs.

As the results of the Abacus poll among likely voters did not differ greatly from the projection yesterday, the numbers have not moved dramatically today. The Liberals are still in front with 35.8% (or between 34% and 39%), followed by the Tories at 33.2% (32% to 36%) and the New Democrats at 22.7% (or between 21% and 24%).

The seat count is virtually identical to the standings at dissolution: 48 for the Liberals, 37 for the PCs, and 22 for the NDP. The ranges still overlap between the Liberals and PCs, however, at between 40 to 58 seats for the Liberals and between 30 to 47 seats for the PCs. The New Democrats sit at between 16 and 24 seats.

For once, we're spared the whiplash caused by a new poll contradicting the one that came before it. In fact, this Abacus poll is broadly similar to the most recent poll by EKOS Research. The Liberals have now led in three of the last four polls, and the methodological trend seems to have been broken. It was starting to emerge that the IVR polls favoured the Liberals and the online polls the PCs, suggesting that there was a methodological factor behind the discrepancy. But now that is no longer the case.

A bit of a trend is developing. The charts below are the same as the one posted yesterday, but highlighting only each party. The vertical lines represent each day a poll was in the field, with a rough approximation of the margin of error relating to the poll (assuming a probabilistic sample). The horizontal lines track the trends for each individual pollster. When looked at in this fashion, the discrepancies recorded so far in the campaign do not seem too large, and the trends seem a lot clearer.

Generally, the numbers have not been moving very much. But it is clear that there is a positive trend in favour of the Liberals and a negative one for the Progressive Conservatives. The New Democrats appear stable. The Liberals have gone from the low-30s to the mid-to-high 30s, while the PCs have gone from the high-30s to the low-30s. There is a bit of a signal in all this noise.

The Abacus poll shows a great deal of stability, with even the regional results not changing from Abacus's last poll by more than five points (keeping them well within the margin of error of a probabilistic sample of similar size).

Among all voters, the Liberals picked up one point to move into the lead with 34%, as the PCs dropped one point to 32%. The NDP was also down one point to 25%, while the Greens were steady at 6%. The number of undecideds increased by one point to 15%.

The interesting result was among likely voters, which has favoured the Tories in past polling by Ipsos Reid and Abacus. Here, however, the Liberals are increased to 36% (+3 from last week) while the PCs also increase, but just to 33% (-3 from last week). Have the Tories lost their turnout advantage?

At the regional level, the races are quite close. The Liberals led in Toronto and eastern Ontario, with 39% and 40%, respectively. The Tories were second with 31% and 34%, and the NDP in third with 22% and 21%.

There was a tie in the GTA/Hamilton-Niagara region at 33% between the two parties (the PCs led here last week), while the NDP was at 25%.

Elsewhere, the PCs led in southwestern Ontario with 34% to 28% for the NDP and 27% for the Liberals, while in the north the NDP was ahead with 34% to 32% for the Liberals and 22% for the PCs.

It will be interesting to see if other polls start to echo what Abacus is recording. They are all recording drops in support for the PCs, so that is a trend that seems to be consistent. Whether that drops them into a tie or further behind, however, seems dependent on the pollster. But for now, at least, the polls are making a bit more sense.

Ontario Liberals move ahead

Another day, another poll, another story line. This time it is from Forum Research and the Toronto Star. The latest numbers give the Liberals the lead, with their support steadily growing. Should we ready ourselves for another whiplash when the next poll comes out?

The projection now gives the Liberals the lead in the vote projection, the first outright lead they have enjoyed since the campaign began. They stand at 38.7%, or between 37% and 43%. The PCs have fallen to 34.6%, or between 33% and 38%, while the New Democrats sit at 21.1%, or between 19% and 23%.

In terms of seats, the Liberals are now in majority territory - again for the first time since the beginning of the campaign. They are projected to win 55 seats, or between 46 and 62 seats. The PCs are projected to win 37 seats, or between 31 and 46 seats. The NDP is projected to win 15 seats, or between 13 and 16 seats.

The Forum poll has the same sort of sampling issues I have highlighted before. The proportion of respondents 55 or older is almost twice as large as it should be, and the proportion of respondents 34 or younger is almost a quarter of what it should be, if this was a representative sample. Weighting can correct for this, but as explained before that has the potential to magnify the errors that can creep in with small sub-group sample sizes.

Forum was last in the field on May 12, and since then the Liberals have picked up three points to move into the lead with 41%. That is an extraordinarily high number. How high? The last poll to give the Ontario Liberals 41% dates from early October 2011 - almost three years ago.

Those three points came equally from the other three parties, with the PCs down to 34%, the NDP down to 20%, and the Greens down to 4%.

None of these shifts are outside the margin of error, but of note is that the New Democrats have now fallen in five consecutive Forum polls, while the Liberals have gained in three consecutive polls.

It will be interesting to see what other pollsters say, as it does seem that the Liberals are improving their position (either among all eligible or just likely voters) in every poll that has been out since the campaign began. Whether they really hold a lead of this magnitude, however, is another matter entirely. The normal margin of error of a random sample of this size would be around +/- 3%, roughly reducing the Liberals to as little as 38% and the PCs to as much as 37% (or, conversely, to as high as 44% and as low as 31%).

The Liberals led in every region of the province in this poll except in eastern Ontario. A Liberal lead in the 905 area code and, especially, the southwest is somewhat unusual. The only large shifts that appear statistically significant was a swing between the NDP and Liberals in Toronto: the Liberals were up 12 points to 51%, while the NDP fell 10 points to just 14%. This echoes the latest poll from EKOS, but not the one from Abacus.

Forum showed little change in approval ratings, with Kathleen Wynne and Andrea Horwath steady at 38% and 35%, respectively. Their disapproval ratings fell to 46% and 40%, respectively. Tim Hudak's approval rating increased to 25%, while his disapproval rating was unchanged at 59%.

In the second release from Abacus's poll this week, similar numbers were shown in terms of favourability - or at least relative numbers, since Abacus provides the option of people having a 'neutral' opinion. But 29% said they had a favourable opinion of Horwath, with 28% having a favourable opinion of Wynne and just 22% saying the same for Hudak. Negative views topped out at 42% for Hudak, against 37% for Wynne and just 21% for Horwath (she had the highest 'neutral' score).

On who would make the best premier, Abacus gave Wynne 26% to 20% for Hudak and 18% for Horwath. Among likely voters, however, Wynne's score improved to 31%, against 24% for Hudak and 20% for Horwath. Those numbers were very similar to Forum's estimate of 34% for Wynne, 22% for Hudak, and 17% for Horwath.

Also on the plus side for the Liberal leader is that Abacus found Wynne polling ahead of her rivals in three key swing groups: OLP/PC voters (32% to 17% for Hudak), OLP/NDP voters (43% to 25% for Horwath), and three-way swing voters (19% to 10% for Horwath and 7% for Hudak). Hudak, meanwhile, beat Horwath among PC/NDP swing voters by a margin of 36% to 23%.