Wednesday, June 11, 2014

2014 Ontario Election Projection

The following are's final forecasts for the provincial election in Ontario, held on June 12, 2014. These numbers were last updated on June 12, 2014, and reflect the best estimates as of June 11, 2014, the last day of polls included in the model. You can click on all of the charts below to magnify them.

Click here to read the detailed analyses from the main site concerning the Ontario election and new polls. 

The vote and seat projections in the central columns reflect the best estimates based on the available polling data. The low and high projections are based on the over-estimation or under-estimation of support the polls are likely to make, while the minimum and maximum projections are designed to include 95% of potential outcomes.

The chart below shows how each party is classified in the model for the determination of the high and low ranges, and the probability that the result will fall within any of the projection ranges.

Based on these probabilities, there is a 62% chance that the outcome of the election for the Liberals will fall between the best estimate (or average) projection and the high projection. There is an 71% chance that it will fall between the average and maximum projection, and so on. There is a 5% chance that the outcome will fall outside of the minimum and maximum ranges.

A detailed explanation of the vote and seat projection models and how the probabilities are calculated can be found here.

The projections are subject to the margin of error of the polls included in the model, as well as the inherent inability for the projection model to make perfect estimations of real-world dynamics. The projection ranges are a reflection of the degree of error polls have made in recent elections. The probabilities are based on how polls have differed from election results in the past.

The follow chart breaks the projection down by region. A description of what each region includes can be found at the bottom of this page.


The following chart lists the polls currently included in the projection model that make up at least 99% of the weighted average, as well as the weight each poll carries. It also lists the media outlet that either commissioned or first reported the poll.

By including polls in the projection, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimization of their results. However, the weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account.

The following is a list of the current projections for all 107 of Ontario's ridings. These are the best estimates of likely outcomes if an election were held on the last day of polling. The high and low results are  the estimates of likely floors and ceilings, based on the high and low vote projection ranges. The probabilities listed beside each riding is the likelihood that, if an election were held on the last day of polling, the winning party identified by the model would actually win. It does not assign any probability to a particular trailing party winning the riding - if a projection gives the leading party a 75% chance of winning, there is a 25% chance that any of the other parties could win (though, in practice, most ridings are only contests between two parties).

These riding projections are not polls and are not necessarily an accurate reflection of current voting intentions in each riding.


The chart below shows the evolution of the seat and vote projections and ranges since the start of the campaign.



Eastern Ontario - Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Kingston and the Islands, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington, Leeds-Grenville, Nepean-Carleton, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa-Orleans, Ottawa South, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa-West Nepean, Prince Edward-Hastings, Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry

905 Area Code - Ajax-Pickering, Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Brampton-Springdale, Brampton West, Burlington, Dufferin-Caledon, Durham, Halton, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, Markham-Unionville, Mississauga-Brampton South, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga-Erindale, Mississauga South, Mississauga-Streetsville, Newmarket-Aurora, Niagara Falls, Niagara West-Glanbrook, Northumberland-Quinte West, Oak Ridges-Markham, Oakville, Oshawa, Pickering-Scarborough East, Richmond Hill, St. Catharines, Thornhill, Vaughan, Welland, Whitby-Oshawa

Northern Ontario - Algoma-Manitoulin, Barrie, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Kenora-Rainy River, Nickel Belt, Nipissing, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Peterborough,  Sault Ste. Marie, Simcoe-Grey, Simcoe-North, Sudbury, Thunder Bay-Atikokan, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Timiskaming-Cochrane, Timmins-James Bay, York-Simcoe

Southwestern Ontario - Brant, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Cambridge, Chatham-Kent-Essex, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Essex, Guelph, Haldimand-Norfolk, Huron-Bruce, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener-Conestoga, Kitchener-Waterloo, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, London-Fanshawe, London North Centre, London West, Oxford, Perth-Wellington, Sarnia-Lambton, Wellington-Halton Hills, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West

Toronto - Beaches-East York, Davenport, Don Valley East, Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Etobicoke North, Parkdale-High Park, St. Paul's, Scarborough-Agincourt, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough-Guildwood, Scarborough-Rouge River, Scarborough Southwest, Toronto Centre, Toronto-Danforth, Trinity-Spadina, Willowdale, York Centre, York South-West, York West