For those of you who stayed up late and those who are early risers, I have updated the site with the final projection for the June 12 provincial election in Ontario. You can get the full details of the final projection by clicking on the chart at the top of the page, or here.
A full, detailed analysis of the final projection will be posted on Thursday morning.
The polls added to the projection since the penultimate update are the following (from oldest to newest), with field dates and margin among eligible and likely voters:
Léger (June 8-9, PC/OLP tie)
Forum Research for the Toronto Star (June 9, OLP +7)
Angus Reid Global (June 8-10, OLP +4 eligible, PC +2 likely)
EKOS Research for iPolitics (June 9-10, OLP +6.4 eligible, OLP +7.9 likely)
Ipsos Reid for CTV/CP24 (June 6-11, OLP +3 eligible, PC +6 likely)
Abacus Data for the Sun News Network (June 9-11, OLP +3 eligible, PC/OLP tie likely)
EKOS Research for iPolitics (June 10-11, OLP +6 eligible, OLP +6.3 likely)
Forum Research (June 11, OLP +6)
Thursday, June 12, 2014
31 comments:
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I predict a PC majority 56 seats with 40.6% of the popular vote. OLP 32 seats with 33% of the vote, NDP19 seats with 23%.
ReplyDeleteOntarians being the humane people they are will put Wynne out of her misery, it will be close but she'll lose her Don Valley West seat.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
DeleteIs that a prediction or a wish? Eric has Don Valley as greater than 85% to stick with Wynne, and I think that's probably low. No matter what you think of the OLP, people like Wynne.
Delete"[Wynne will] lose her Don Valley West seat."
DeleteNot a chance of that happening, which makes the rest of what you say suspect.
It's always nice to see a Tory with a sense of humour
DeleteWynne is a weak leader, she was put in place as a stop-gap leader. People have very mixed opinions of Wynne. People may like Wynne but, she has demonstrated incapable of making the tough decisions. Nobody thought Iggy would lose his "safe" Liberal seat, Nobody though Marois would lose her seat but, when the tide turns it often turns fast.
DeletePaul A.S. Ward,
Thanks for the insult, way to stay classy!
Thanks for the updates! I have always enjoyed coming to 308.com but I particularly enjoyed the updates this election.
ReplyDeleteI guess the lesson from this is that the cons need to tone down the rhetoric and be more Tory than tea party. That and someone in the cons needs to learn how to tell the difference between getting a job for a year and getting a permanent job.
ReplyDeleteWell said. And on top of that, you're the Ontario PC's. The reason why you stayed in power for 42 straight years was that you were the champion of education. You can't say we need to cut education and teachers without a concrete plan to make it better. The far right wing of the PC's are controlling this party with extreme ideals. The only thing concrete in their platform was that teachers and teacher assistants would be cut. Do they not think parents vote? To not understand the basic value system of the electorate shows a willful ignorance on this far right wing group's part. I hope the moderates can take their PC party back from this American idea based Republican Tea Party group that's running it now.
DeleteThe PC's of yore were also the champions of public transit. It's simply no longer the same party. If you live in urban Ontario (which is actually most of us), your vote is better placed with the Liberals, NDP or Greens.
Delete11matt11,
DeleteThe problem is Ontario is broke whoever wins will need to cut salaries in any organisation are usually the largest cost. If the Liberals ever get serious about the Province's fiscal health they'll cut all sorts of positions including teachers, the only difference between the PCs and the OLP is the PCs campaign on what they plan to do, the Liberals keep the electorate in the dark until they get re-elected. Liberals like to be economical with the truth usually at a price of $1.1 billion. PCs like to be generous with the truth-it costs nothing but, if voters can't tell the difference it is Ontario's great loss.
Thanks for the update, Eric. You're the best!
ReplyDeleteWell, this one is hard to predict. Even polls don't really agree. So, just as Eric, I'll use his poll-average to call it. Using his numbers, the seat count would be:
ReplyDelete47 OLP
41 PC
19 NDP
Here is the riding by riding breakdown:
Ajax—Pickering OLP
Algoma—Manitoulin NDP
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale OLP
Barrie PC
Beaches—East York NDP
Bramalea—Gore—Malton NDP
Brampton-Ouest OLP
Brampton—Springdale OLP
Brant PC
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PC
Burlington OLP
Cambridge OLP
Carleton—Mississippi Mills PC
Chatham-Kent—Essex PC
Davenport NDP
Don Valley-Est OLP
Don Valley-Ouest OLP
Dufferin—Caledon PC
Durham PC
Eglinton—Lawrence OLP
Elgin—Middlesex—London PC
Essex NDP
Etobicoke-Centre OLP
Etobicoke—Lakeshore OLP
Etobicoke-Nord OLP
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell PC
Guelph OLP
Haldimand—Norfolk PC
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PC
Halton PC
Hamilton-Centre NDP
Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek NDP
Hamilton Mountain NDP
Huron—Bruce PC
Kenora-Rainy River NDP
Kingston et les Îles OLP
Kitchener-Centre PC
Kitchener—Conestoga PC
Kitchener—Waterloo PC
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington PC
Leeds—Grenville PC
London-Centre-Nord OLP
London—Fanshawe NDP
London-Ouest OLP
Markham—Unionville OLP
Mississauga—Brampton-Sud OLP
Mississauga—Erindale OLP
Mississauga-Est—Cooksville OLP
Mississauga—Streetsville OLP
Mississauga-Sud OLP
Nepean—Carleton PC
Newmarket—Aurora PC
Niagara Falls PC
Niagara-Ouest—Glanbrook PC
Nickel Belt NDP
Nipissing PC
Northumberland—Quinte West PC
Oak Ridges—Markham OLP
Oakville OLP
Oshawa PC
Ottawa-Centre OLP
Ottawa—Orléans OLP
Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean PC
Ottawa-Sud OLP
Ottawa—Vanier OLP
Oxford PC
Parkdale—High Park NDP
Parry Sound—Muskoka PC
Perth—Wellington PC
Peterborough OLP
Pickering—Scarborough-Est OLP
Prince Edward—Hastings PC
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PC
Richmond Hill OLP
Sarnia—Lambton PC
Sault Ste. Marie OLP
Scarborough—Agincourt OLP
Scarborough-Centre OLP
Scarborough—Guildwood OLP
Scarborough—Rouge River NDP
Scarborough-Sud-Ouest OLP
Simcoe—Grey PC
Simcoe-Nord PC
St. Catharines PC
St. Paul's OLP
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PC
Sudbury NDP
Thornhill PC
Thunder Bay—Atikokan OLP
Thunder Bay—Superior-Nord OLP
Timiskaming-Cochrane NDP
Timmins—Baie James NDP
Toronto-Centre OLP
Toronto—Danforth NDP
Trinity—Spadina OLP
Vaughan OLP
Welland NDP
Wellington—Halton Hills PC
Whitby—Oshawa PC
Willowdale OLP
Windsor-Ouest NDP
Windsor—Tecumseh OLP
York-Centre OLP
York-Ouest OLP
York—Simcoe PC
York-Sud—Weston OLP
I have a feeling the results will differ quite a bit to my prediction because the turnout will be different to the poll average.
I think you are wrong about the four NDP by-elections gains, especially Windsor Tecumseh which they won with 2/3rds of the vote
Delete"Kitchener—Waterloo PC"
DeleteNot a chance. Witmer may have owned this riding, but that is because of who she was, not her party. The only reason the 2012 by-election was a PC/NDP fight is because the Liberals were in power, so that is hardly surprising or relevant data. The only riding poll I can find for this riding is the Forum one which shows, accurately IMO, that it is as Liberal/NDP fight with the PCs well behind.
I don't use by-elections because I feel they are more about sending a message at the party in power at the current moment of the election and less about choosing a government, which, also, leads to generally very low turnout. Depending how things work out this time around, I may have to incorporate them, probably in a reduced manner.
DeleteSince I don't follow Ontarian politics (being from Québec and all), I didn't tweak my numbers whatsoever for star candidates entering or leaving a specific riding. I also didn't have time to start including the riding polls in my model (I would actually have to find the specific method I would use in the first place) since I'm doing this in my free time.
Hi Eric,
ReplyDeleteI am a student in university statistics. I would like to ask the following questions:
1. How can we determine the boundary at the "high" point and "low" point in your projection?
2. Your projection is leaning very close to the Min point (the lower boundary of the 95% confidence level) while the Max point is very further away especially for Liberal and PC. Does it mean that the Max and Min point you use are the boundaries of the 95% confidence level?
The intention for the above questions are I was trying to fit your buckets onto the normal table, but have huge difficulties rationalizing the boundaries especially the max.
Thank you very much,
Clarence
The high and low points are determined by how polls in the past have under- and over-estimated parties that were in a particular position in the legislature at dissolution.
DeleteThe Max and Min are the 95%, yes.
Is it just me, or is there a difference in IVR vs. internet polls? When I look at the poll weighting on the projection, it looks like the IVR polls show a Liberal lead, but the internet polls show either a close race or a PC lead. Am I reading this correctly?
ReplyDeleteIt does look that way. Thing is, Internet polls have a track record of producing correct or near-correct results - think Abacus and Angus for the 2011 federal election which had the results pretty well pegged while the IVR pollsters had over-inflating Liberal numbers. So you can't dismiss them just because they're online despite the comments from some pollsters about their validity.
DeleteOne thing is for certain, and that's there will be at least one group of pollsters tonight - either the IVRs or the onlines - who will need to reflect deeply on the methodology they used during this election.
It looks like the IVR were closer than the internet polls this time.
DeleteEric, if the aggregated popular vote numbers are correct, i find the total seat counts a little strange and non-intuitive. You have the NDP getting less of the popular vote than 2011, yet gaining 5 seats vs 2011... the PC's getting slightly more of the popular vote but one less seat, and the Liberals 0.7% less, and losing 4 seats... just doesn't seem intuitive to me.
ReplyDeletebut hey, you're faced with pollsters using likely voter models that have wildly different results. guess we'll know in 12 hours!
ReplyDeleteCurious. That actually matches my gut feeling.
Guess we all got to get out and vote, and see how it turns out.
Wayne
Thanks for all your work, Eric.
ReplyDeleteOne question though: what would Nate Silver do?
WWNSD?
DeleteWhat's most interesting about these final polling numbers - and we've sort of seen this coming - is that the PC numbers show next to no variation across pollsters, while the NDP numbers are all over the map. Despite all the who-ha about Ipsos and Ekos, both peg the PCs at 36, as does everyone else (+/-1). That's pretty definite! The Liberals show much greater variation, but only the final Ipsos "likely" number is outside Éric's ranges. The crazy part is the NDP. Half the polls in the projection peg them outside Éric's min and max. And there's no question that this reflects what's really going on - it's potential NDP voters who are most volatile and least certain. Horwath has done a horrible job of giving them reasons to vote NDP, while Wynne (and Hudak) have given them good reasons to vote Liberal, yet it's hard to credit that this could actually be true! We'll have to see how it all breaks today. Thanks Éric and I'll be tuning in tonight!
ReplyDeleteYou know it's all very well to pontificate from BC or Alberta or even Quebec but if you don't live in this province then you simply can't understand the nuances that exist.
ReplyDeleteFor instance I'm in Eastern Ontario and will happily talk about things here but won't pontificate at all about Thunder Bay or the western part of the province.
And don't ever get trapped by the mantra or the punditry of the various parties. Because all that varies according to where you are in the province. Something Mike Harris ignored by the way.
And sure the economy is important but it is NOT the only important thing going on. People services are extremely important !!
I think people have a right to comment no matter where they live. Someone may have an intimate knowledge of Toronto but, no longer live there. That knowledge doesn't disappear simply because one's postal code changes.
DeleteServices are very important, at the end of the day those services are paid for by taxes and taxes or the lack thereof are dependent upon the economy. A province can go into debt of course but, that is a short term solution, in order for any jurisdiction to be wealthy a strong economy is necessary. Most people have driven through a ghost town they most often come about due to two reasons; 1. A dramatic change occurs in the local economy. 2.Environmental changes make the place inhabitable or dangerous.
I see bede so your obvious brilliance, despite results, can't be blocked !!
DeletePeter,
DeleteI simply don't understand your logic or reason to limit a person's right to free speech based upon where they live.
Eric really appreciate all your work on what has turned out, I suspect, to be way bigger file than expected. Any info on voter turnout yet ??
ReplyDelete