Thursday, June 12, 2014

Final Ontario update

For those of you who stayed up late and those who are early risers, I have updated the site with the final projection for the June 12 provincial election in Ontario. You can get the full details of the final projection by clicking on the chart at the top of the page, or here.

A full, detailed analysis of the final projection will be posted on Thursday morning.

The polls added to the projection since the penultimate update are the following (from oldest to newest), with field dates and margin among eligible and likely voters:

Léger (June 8-9, PC/OLP tie)
Forum Research for the Toronto Star (June 9, OLP +7)
Angus Reid Global (June 8-10, OLP +4 eligible, PC +2 likely)
EKOS Research for iPolitics (June 9-10, OLP +6.4 eligible, OLP +7.9 likely)
Ipsos Reid for CTV/CP24 (June 6-11, OLP +3 eligible, PC +6 likely)
Abacus Data for the Sun News Network (June 9-11, OLP +3 eligible, PC/OLP tie likely)
EKOS Research for iPolitics (June 10-11, OLP +6 eligible, OLP +6.3 likely)
Forum Research (June 11, OLP +6)

31 comments:

  1. I predict a PC majority 56 seats with 40.6% of the popular vote. OLP 32 seats with 33% of the vote, NDP19 seats with 23%.

    Ontarians being the humane people they are will put Wynne out of her misery, it will be close but she'll lose her Don Valley West seat.

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    1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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    2. Is that a prediction or a wish? Eric has Don Valley as greater than 85% to stick with Wynne, and I think that's probably low. No matter what you think of the OLP, people like Wynne.

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    3. "[Wynne will] lose her Don Valley West seat."

      Not a chance of that happening, which makes the rest of what you say suspect.

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    4. It's always nice to see a Tory with a sense of humour

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    5. Wynne is a weak leader, she was put in place as a stop-gap leader. People have very mixed opinions of Wynne. People may like Wynne but, she has demonstrated incapable of making the tough decisions. Nobody thought Iggy would lose his "safe" Liberal seat, Nobody though Marois would lose her seat but, when the tide turns it often turns fast.

      Paul A.S. Ward,

      Thanks for the insult, way to stay classy!

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  2. Thanks for the updates! I have always enjoyed coming to 308.com but I particularly enjoyed the updates this election.

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  3. I guess the lesson from this is that the cons need to tone down the rhetoric and be more Tory than tea party. That and someone in the cons needs to learn how to tell the difference between getting a job for a year and getting a permanent job.

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    1. Well said. And on top of that, you're the Ontario PC's. The reason why you stayed in power for 42 straight years was that you were the champion of education. You can't say we need to cut education and teachers without a concrete plan to make it better. The far right wing of the PC's are controlling this party with extreme ideals. The only thing concrete in their platform was that teachers and teacher assistants would be cut. Do they not think parents vote? To not understand the basic value system of the electorate shows a willful ignorance on this far right wing group's part. I hope the moderates can take their PC party back from this American idea based Republican Tea Party group that's running it now.

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    2. The PC's of yore were also the champions of public transit. It's simply no longer the same party. If you live in urban Ontario (which is actually most of us), your vote is better placed with the Liberals, NDP or Greens.

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    3. 11matt11,

      The problem is Ontario is broke whoever wins will need to cut salaries in any organisation are usually the largest cost. If the Liberals ever get serious about the Province's fiscal health they'll cut all sorts of positions including teachers, the only difference between the PCs and the OLP is the PCs campaign on what they plan to do, the Liberals keep the electorate in the dark until they get re-elected. Liberals like to be economical with the truth usually at a price of $1.1 billion. PCs like to be generous with the truth-it costs nothing but, if voters can't tell the difference it is Ontario's great loss.

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  4. Thanks for the update, Eric. You're the best!

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  5. Well, this one is hard to predict. Even polls don't really agree. So, just as Eric, I'll use his poll-average to call it. Using his numbers, the seat count would be:

    47 OLP
    41 PC
    19 NDP

    Here is the riding by riding breakdown:

    Ajax—Pickering OLP
    Algoma—Manitoulin NDP
    Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale OLP
    Barrie PC
    Beaches—East York NDP
    Bramalea—Gore—Malton NDP
    Brampton-Ouest OLP
    Brampton—Springdale OLP
    Brant PC
    Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PC
    Burlington OLP
    Cambridge OLP
    Carleton—Mississippi Mills PC
    Chatham-Kent—Essex PC
    Davenport NDP
    Don Valley-Est OLP
    Don Valley-Ouest OLP
    Dufferin—Caledon PC
    Durham PC
    Eglinton—Lawrence OLP
    Elgin—Middlesex—London PC
    Essex NDP
    Etobicoke-Centre OLP
    Etobicoke—Lakeshore OLP
    Etobicoke-Nord OLP
    Glengarry—Prescott—Russell PC
    Guelph OLP
    Haldimand—Norfolk PC
    Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PC
    Halton PC
    Hamilton-Centre NDP
    Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek NDP
    Hamilton Mountain NDP
    Huron—Bruce PC
    Kenora-Rainy River NDP
    Kingston et les Îles OLP
    Kitchener-Centre PC
    Kitchener—Conestoga PC
    Kitchener—Waterloo PC
    Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC
    Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington PC
    Leeds—Grenville PC
    London-Centre-Nord OLP
    London—Fanshawe NDP
    London-Ouest OLP
    Markham—Unionville OLP
    Mississauga—Brampton-Sud OLP
    Mississauga—Erindale OLP
    Mississauga-Est—Cooksville OLP
    Mississauga—Streetsville OLP
    Mississauga-Sud OLP
    Nepean—Carleton PC
    Newmarket—Aurora PC
    Niagara Falls PC
    Niagara-Ouest—Glanbrook PC
    Nickel Belt NDP
    Nipissing PC
    Northumberland—Quinte West PC
    Oak Ridges—Markham OLP
    Oakville OLP
    Oshawa PC
    Ottawa-Centre OLP
    Ottawa—Orléans OLP
    Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean PC
    Ottawa-Sud OLP
    Ottawa—Vanier OLP
    Oxford PC
    Parkdale—High Park NDP
    Parry Sound—Muskoka PC
    Perth—Wellington PC
    Peterborough OLP
    Pickering—Scarborough-Est OLP
    Prince Edward—Hastings PC
    Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PC
    Richmond Hill OLP
    Sarnia—Lambton PC
    Sault Ste. Marie OLP
    Scarborough—Agincourt OLP
    Scarborough-Centre OLP
    Scarborough—Guildwood OLP
    Scarborough—Rouge River NDP
    Scarborough-Sud-Ouest OLP
    Simcoe—Grey PC
    Simcoe-Nord PC
    St. Catharines PC
    St. Paul's OLP
    Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PC
    Sudbury NDP
    Thornhill PC
    Thunder Bay—Atikokan OLP
    Thunder Bay—Superior-Nord OLP
    Timiskaming-Cochrane NDP
    Timmins—Baie James NDP
    Toronto-Centre OLP
    Toronto—Danforth NDP
    Trinity—Spadina OLP
    Vaughan OLP
    Welland NDP
    Wellington—Halton Hills PC
    Whitby—Oshawa PC
    Willowdale OLP
    Windsor-Ouest NDP
    Windsor—Tecumseh OLP
    York-Centre OLP
    York-Ouest OLP
    York—Simcoe PC
    York-Sud—Weston OLP

    I have a feeling the results will differ quite a bit to my prediction because the turnout will be different to the poll average.

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    1. I think you are wrong about the four NDP by-elections gains, especially Windsor Tecumseh which they won with 2/3rds of the vote

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    2. "Kitchener—Waterloo PC"

      Not a chance. Witmer may have owned this riding, but that is because of who she was, not her party. The only reason the 2012 by-election was a PC/NDP fight is because the Liberals were in power, so that is hardly surprising or relevant data. The only riding poll I can find for this riding is the Forum one which shows, accurately IMO, that it is as Liberal/NDP fight with the PCs well behind.

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    3. I don't use by-elections because I feel they are more about sending a message at the party in power at the current moment of the election and less about choosing a government, which, also, leads to generally very low turnout. Depending how things work out this time around, I may have to incorporate them, probably in a reduced manner.

      Since I don't follow Ontarian politics (being from Québec and all), I didn't tweak my numbers whatsoever for star candidates entering or leaving a specific riding. I also didn't have time to start including the riding polls in my model (I would actually have to find the specific method I would use in the first place) since I'm doing this in my free time.

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  6. Hi Eric,

    I am a student in university statistics. I would like to ask the following questions:
    1. How can we determine the boundary at the "high" point and "low" point in your projection?
    2. Your projection is leaning very close to the Min point (the lower boundary of the 95% confidence level) while the Max point is very further away especially for Liberal and PC. Does it mean that the Max and Min point you use are the boundaries of the 95% confidence level?

    The intention for the above questions are I was trying to fit your buckets onto the normal table, but have huge difficulties rationalizing the boundaries especially the max.

    Thank you very much,

    Clarence

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    1. The high and low points are determined by how polls in the past have under- and over-estimated parties that were in a particular position in the legislature at dissolution.

      The Max and Min are the 95%, yes.

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  7. Is it just me, or is there a difference in IVR vs. internet polls? When I look at the poll weighting on the projection, it looks like the IVR polls show a Liberal lead, but the internet polls show either a close race or a PC lead. Am I reading this correctly?

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    1. It does look that way. Thing is, Internet polls have a track record of producing correct or near-correct results - think Abacus and Angus for the 2011 federal election which had the results pretty well pegged while the IVR pollsters had over-inflating Liberal numbers. So you can't dismiss them just because they're online despite the comments from some pollsters about their validity.

      One thing is for certain, and that's there will be at least one group of pollsters tonight - either the IVRs or the onlines - who will need to reflect deeply on the methodology they used during this election.

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    2. It looks like the IVR were closer than the internet polls this time.

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  8. Eric, if the aggregated popular vote numbers are correct, i find the total seat counts a little strange and non-intuitive. You have the NDP getting less of the popular vote than 2011, yet gaining 5 seats vs 2011... the PC's getting slightly more of the popular vote but one less seat, and the Liberals 0.7% less, and losing 4 seats... just doesn't seem intuitive to me.

    but hey, you're faced with pollsters using likely voter models that have wildly different results. guess we'll know in 12 hours!

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  9. Curious. That actually matches my gut feeling.

    Guess we all got to get out and vote, and see how it turns out.

    Wayne

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  10. Thanks for all your work, Eric.

    One question though: what would Nate Silver do?

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  11. What's most interesting about these final polling numbers - and we've sort of seen this coming - is that the PC numbers show next to no variation across pollsters, while the NDP numbers are all over the map. Despite all the who-ha about Ipsos and Ekos, both peg the PCs at 36, as does everyone else (+/-1). That's pretty definite! The Liberals show much greater variation, but only the final Ipsos "likely" number is outside Éric's ranges. The crazy part is the NDP. Half the polls in the projection peg them outside Éric's min and max. And there's no question that this reflects what's really going on - it's potential NDP voters who are most volatile and least certain. Horwath has done a horrible job of giving them reasons to vote NDP, while Wynne (and Hudak) have given them good reasons to vote Liberal, yet it's hard to credit that this could actually be true! We'll have to see how it all breaks today. Thanks Éric and I'll be tuning in tonight!

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  12. You know it's all very well to pontificate from BC or Alberta or even Quebec but if you don't live in this province then you simply can't understand the nuances that exist.

    For instance I'm in Eastern Ontario and will happily talk about things here but won't pontificate at all about Thunder Bay or the western part of the province.

    And don't ever get trapped by the mantra or the punditry of the various parties. Because all that varies according to where you are in the province. Something Mike Harris ignored by the way.

    And sure the economy is important but it is NOT the only important thing going on. People services are extremely important !!

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    1. I think people have a right to comment no matter where they live. Someone may have an intimate knowledge of Toronto but, no longer live there. That knowledge doesn't disappear simply because one's postal code changes.

      Services are very important, at the end of the day those services are paid for by taxes and taxes or the lack thereof are dependent upon the economy. A province can go into debt of course but, that is a short term solution, in order for any jurisdiction to be wealthy a strong economy is necessary. Most people have driven through a ghost town they most often come about due to two reasons; 1. A dramatic change occurs in the local economy. 2.Environmental changes make the place inhabitable or dangerous.


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    2. I see bede so your obvious brilliance, despite results, can't be blocked !!

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    3. Peter,

      I simply don't understand your logic or reason to limit a person's right to free speech based upon where they live.

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  13. Eric really appreciate all your work on what has turned out, I suspect, to be way bigger file than expected. Any info on voter turnout yet ??

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