Monday, November 11, 2013

October 2013 federal polling averages

October was a rather tumultuous month here in Ottawa, and the volume of polling reflects that. In all, 14 national and regional polls were conducted and released during the month of October, surveying a total of 17,581 Canadians. That is the largest amount of public federal polling done in any month since March 2012, when Thomas Mulcair was named the leader of the New Democrats. It was a different recently named leader, however, who had the best numbers this month.

The Liberals led for the seventh consecutive month, with an average of 35.2% support. That was a 2.9-point gain over September's averages. Though the Liberals' lead has wobbled back and forth over the last seven months, the wobble itself has been relatively consistent. This period of polling strength is easily the longest the Liberals have enjoyed since Paul Martin's leadership.

The Conservatives were down 1.5 points to 28.9% support in October. The party has not been at or below 30% since at least before 2009, when the monthly averages begin, let alone for seven consecutive months. The current polling numbers for both the Tories and the Liberals put us back to pre-2006 levels. More than seven years ago!

The New Democrats were down 0.8 points to 23.7%, and have been stagnant at between 23% and 25% since April.

The Bloc Québécois was down 1.1 points to 5.9% support, while the Greens were up 1.1 points to 5.5%. Support for others parties stood at 0.9%, down 0.6 points from September.

If we compare these nine national polls to the last time the same firms were in the field, we get a good comparison of how things have moved since the summer.
When we compare apples to apples like this, we see that the Conservatives have dropped a point since the summer, the NDP has been relatively stable, and the Liberals have picked up almost three points.

Click to magnify
There was little movement in the polls in Ontario during the month, with the Liberals picking up 1.1 points to lead with 37.2% support. The Conservatives, who have been between 33% and 34% since May, averaged 33.5% support, a drop of 0.7 points. The NDP was down 0.6 points to 22.9%, while the Greens were up 1.1 points to 5.5% support in the province.

Quebec enjoyed its first month of stability in the polls since before Justin Trudeau became Liberal leader. The Liberals were down 0.7 points to 31.5%, while the New Democrats were down 0.3 points to 26.4%. The Bloc Québécois slipped 0.7 points to 23.1%, while the Conservatives were up 0.8 points to 13.3% in the province. The party has been at 13% in Quebec for the last four months now. The Greens were up 1.1 points to 4.9%.

British Columbia remains a jumble, as it has been for the last seven months. In October, the Liberals inched ahead by 3.9 points to lead with 32.6%, followed by the Conservatives at 28.9% (-6.3) and the NDP at 27.7% (-0.1). The Greens were up 1.7 points to 9.7% in B.C., their best regional result nationwide.

The Conservatives led in Alberta with 51.8%, a drop of 1.2 points. The party has actually been sliding since June. The Liberals put up their best numbers in the province since May with 25.1% support, a gain of 2.5 points. The NDP was down 2.1 points to 15.2%, while the Greens were up 1.8 points to 6.2%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals had the best result that any party has managed since at least January 2009 with 55% support, a jump of 10.3 points since October. The Conservatives were down 0.2 points to 20.7%, while the New Democrats were down 8.9 points to 20.2%. That is their worst result in the region since March 2011. The Greens were down 0.4 points to 3.7%.

And in the Prairies, the Conservatives managed their worst result since May with just 37.5% support, down 4.3 points from September. The Liberals, who have been moving up and down over the last few months but generally trending upwards, recorded their best result since at least January 2009 with a gain of six points to 34.5% support. The NDP was down 1.6 points to 22.8%, while the Greens were down 1.4 points to 3.5%.
With these levels of support, the Liberals would win a plurality of seats with 130, a gain of 15 over September's projection. The Conservatives dropped 15 to 121, while the NDP, Bloc, and Greens were unchanged at 70, 15, and two seats, respectively.

The Liberals made their biggest seat gains since last month in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, where they picked up five in each. The Conservatives dropped eight seats in British Columbia and three in the Prairies, while the New Democrats were up three seats in B.C. but down four in Atlantic Canada.

Approval ratings over the month (just two polls by Forum and EKOS) averaged 29% for Stephen Harper, 45% for Mulcair, and 49% for Trudeau. That was generally unchanged for both the Conservative and Liberal leaders from September, but Mulcair's was up a fair bit.

So it would seem that the month was a rough one for Harper and the Conservatives, which you probably didn't need polling data to figure out. So far, the Liberals have made the gains though it is possible that we will see Mulcair's Question Period performance begin to pay off. The Conservatives dropped everywhere in Canada except Quebec, where their gains were modest and the electoral consequences minimal. The Liberals gained in everywhere except in Quebec, which does have implications for their chances of winning a strong minority or majority government. For the New Democrats, it was general stagnation. In the context of the party, 24% is terrific as it would still be the second-best result for the NDP in its history, but after 2011 expectations are considerably higher.

Nevertheless, October was also a noisy month when you take into account all of the events on Parliament Hill - particularly in the last two weeks. It may be more instructive to see where the numbers lie in November and December when things have some time to settle down.

16 comments:

  1. Please remind me how many seats the next House will have?

    And are the numbers here based on the current House size or the new one ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 338 seats, and these projections are based on that total.

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    2. Thanks Eric.

      So the numbers don't for any party represent majority.

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  2. Safe bet: next month the Liberals will be down. It seems there's a clear oscillating pattern based on which pollsters are in the field when.

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  3. Why do Con numbers get rounded up while NDP numbers get rounded down (23.7% goes to 23%)?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I assume you're referring to these averages? http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html

      That is a different set of calculations. This post is the average of polls conducted during the month of October, weighted only by sample size. The averages that you are referring to are weighted by pollster track record and by the age of the poll (i.e., a more recent poll is weighted more heavily than an older poll, while in these October averages, it doesn't matter if the poll was done at the beginning or the end of the month).

      The averages at http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html are the running aggregates of this site. The averages in this particular post are for the month of October only.

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  4. If the polls show a clear gap between the Liberals and NDP when the writ drops, I wouldn't bet on that 24% of the vote holding up over the course of the campaign. I'd bet on votes flowing from smaller parties to the larger parties as the campaign progresses. BC had that happen in spades.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A lot will depend on whether Trudeau or Mulcair deserve a majority in the opinion of voters. My sense is that at this point the answer is no.

      I think BC is a mixed bag really. We certainly have a history of supporting the larger "free-enterprise party" but, don't forget during the Socred period the Liberals or PCs held seats until 1979. The Green party has also been extremely resilient. The party has polled 2% or better in every election since 1996. Their best performance was in 2001 with a 12.4% showing. Since then their per centage of the vote has fallen in every subsequent election. However, at 8% of the vote and a MLA they are still a force in BC politics.

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  5. "Seven consecutive months"... Funny how the Liberals always poll really high in between elections. They haven't been faring so well when the actual votes get counted though. Their pop. vote has declined every election for the last ten years.

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  6. knownothingsk,

    I'd say we Liberals are long overdue for an upswing. Maybe Justin will finally make that happen.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Replies
    1. Ronald,

      The Grits have experienced an upswing since, Trudeau became leader! Before Trudeau took over the Liberals were polling in the high to mid twenties today they are polling roughly 10 points better mid-high thirties. They have maintained this support and lead over the Tories and Dippers since, April.

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    2. bede dunelm,

      Absolutely agree with your comment on voting intention. However, knownothingsk's point on popular vote received strikes me as a valid one.

      Delete
  8. Well based on those numbers and Eric's seat projections I see a Liberal minority Govt supported by the NDP.

    Tories are dead if these numbers hold !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As knownothingsk mentions Liberals poll high between elections then crash during the campaign period.

      The Liberals will not join forces with anybody especially Mulcair. .A Liberal majority runs through Quebec. Cooperation is contrary to their interest.

      Delete
  9. what seats do the green and bloc hold

    ReplyDelete

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