Friday, June 24, 2011

NDP's Quebec support grows

It’s Quebec’s Fête nationale today, and the province will be decked out in white and blue. But the colours of the Fleur-de-lis may have to compete with a little orange, according to a new poll from CROP.

The New Democrats’ electoral victory in Quebec in the last federal election came as a surprise, and many have called their success a flash in the pan. But more than one month after the campaign has ended, the NDP now enjoys the support of a majority of Quebecers.

The poll, reported by La Presse on Thursday, was conducted online by CROP from June 15 to 20 and surveyed 1,000 people in the province. 

Since the election, the New Democrats have picked up ten points in Quebec and now lead with a massive 53 per cent. With this level of support, especially considering how the NDP’s voters are evenly spread across regional and demographic lines in the province, the New Democrats would have a good shot at winning up to 70 seats in Quebec.

You can read the rest of this article on The Huffington Post Canada  website.

I encourage you to check out the article for the details, but meanwhile here is how this CROP poll translates into seats.

At the provincial level, Jean Charest's Liberals would win a minority government with 61 seats, two short of a majority. The Parti Québécois wins 49 seats, the ADQ 13 seats, and Québec Solidaire two.

As the ADQ has far more in common with the Liberals than they do the PQ, this minority government would likely have no problem surviving for quite some time. It is quite a bit of a shift, as it has been months (years?) since the Liberals were the favourites to win the next election in Quebec.

At the federal level, this poll would hand 69 seats to the New Democrats and the remaining six to the Conservatives. The Liberals and Bloc would be kaput.

Now, some caveats. The provincial projection is based on a simple swing model. I'm in the process of updating the Quebec projection model to my current system, using the incumbent factors and other inputs. That should be done in the next few days.

Federally, I'm still using the model used to project the 2011 election. I am also in the process of updating that model. That one should be ready in the next few weeks.