Thursday, August 25, 2011

Brad Wall increases majority in first Saskatchewan projection

The Saskatchewan projection model is now complete, and will now be maintaining up-to-date riding by riding projections for the Saskatchewan election, scheduled to take place in November.

Now, there have not been many Saskatchewan polls so the current projection is largely based on the latest poll from Insightrix Research. Nevertheless, more polls should appear as we approach the election.
The first projection for Saskatchewan has Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party (SP) at 58.9% of the vote, with the New Democrats trailing with 31%.

The Greens stand at 5% in the projection, while the Liberals are at 4.7%.
The SP is projected to win 43 seats, increasing its majority from 38. The New Democrats are projected to win 15 seats, while both the Liberals and Greens are shut-out.

The Saskatchewan Party wins 12 seats in the north, 19 in the south, five in Regina, and seven in Saskatoon.

The New Democrats win three seats in the north, one in the south, six in Regina, and five in Saskatoon.
It is unlikely that this is going to change any time soon. Most of the ridings in Saskatchewan are heavily tilted towards one party or the other. Only one riding is projected to have a margin of 5% or less, and it is one in which the SP leads.

This gives the Saskatchewan Party a range of 42 to 43 seats, with the NDP at between 15 and 16 seats.

The models for Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island are also completed, but need to have the charts and vote projection finished. Once they are, I will present ThreeHundredEight's projections for these two Atlantic provinces.


  1. I think with Link at the helm they may surprise us all.... And lose even more seats


  2. Your one close riding, Saskatoon Meewasin, was a close three-way contest due to the Liberal leader running in that riding. It seems extremely unlikely that the Liberals will be able to muster anywhere near the projected 17% support in this election, and I suspect the Liberal voters will mostly defect to the SP.


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