Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Incumbent landslides in first Atlantic projections

With the first projections for Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador, all five provinces scheduled to have elections this fall now have running seat projections models under way at this site.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, ThreeHundredEight's first projection is a majority government for Kathy Dunderdale, with the Liberals and New Democrats tying for second.
With 67.1% of the vote, the Progressive Conservatives win 44 seats, increasing their current crop of MHAs by one. The Liberals place second with 20.3% and win two seats, while the New Democrats also win two seats with 12.3% of the vote.

Now, a poll has not come out of the province since the Liberals named Kevin Alyward their new leader. Whether the departure of Yvonne Jones and the arrival of Alyward changes anything remains to be seen. But until we get some new polling data, this is what we're looking at.
The PCs win 13 seats in the St. John's region, nine seats on the Avalon and Burin peninsulas, 20 seats in the rest of Newfoundland, and two seats in Labrador.

The Liberals win one seat in the rest of Newfoundland and one in Labrador, while the New Democrats win one seat in St. John's and the other in Labrador.
There are not a lot of close races in Newfoundland and Labrador. The Tories are leading by 5% or less in one seat and trailing by that amount in another, giving them a range of 43 to 45 seats.

The Liberals are trailing the PCs in one and the NDP is leading them in another, giving the Liberals a range of two to three seats and the NDP a range of one to two seats.

Though the colours are different, Prince Edward Island also has a landslide on its hands.
With 54.4% of the vote, Robert Ghiz's Liberals are projected to win a massive majority of 26 seats, leaving one seat and 31.4% of the vote to Olive Crane's Progressive Conservatives. The New Democrats are shut out but win 10.7% of the vote, while the Greens take 2.7%.

This is another province with few polls, and the small size of the ridings (roughly 3,000 people vote in each of them) make this province more difficult to project.
The Liberals win all five seats in Charlottetown, all eight seats in central PEI, and all seven seats in the western part of the island. They win six seats in eastern PEI, which is where the Tories win their one seat.

There are no close races in the projection, leaving the "range" at 26 Liberal seats and one PC seat.

ThreeHundredEight is now completely prepared for the fall election season. As long as there is a poll to add, I will update the projections every day starting next week.

EDIT: After a question from a commenter, I should point out that for all provinces I am assuming parties (and independents) will run candidates in the same ridings that they did in the previous election, until the election agencies in each province releases the official candidate list. At that point, I will update the projections to accurately reflect which parties and which independents are running in each riding.

I think there could still be a few surprises. While the Saskatchewan Party and the PEI Liberals look like locks to be re-elected, the Manitoba race is looking very close and Ontario could still go either way. And in Newfoundland and Labrador, the change-up in leadership throws everything up in the air. While Dunderdale's PCs are still the odds-on favourites, it makes the race one to watch.

27 comments:

  1. Where does the polling data come from?

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  2. For Newfoundland and Labrador, provincial polls are from Corporate Research Associates and Telelink, which conducted a poll for NTV.

    For PEI, the polling data is from Corporate Research Associates, the only active pollster for PEI.

    A list of the most recent polls is at the bottom of this page.

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  3. In the PEI projection, the seat-by-seat numbers seem to assume that the NDP and Greens only run candidates in the same seats as last time. Isn't that a bit of a problem?

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  4. The PEI projection looks spot on. I'm glad you got rid of that ridiculous projection showing the NDP winning seats.

    I think you are underestimating the Liberals in Newfoundland. They should win a few more seats in the province. I can tell you though, most Newfies are undecided at the moment.

    I would agree that the NDP will win at least 2 seats in the province, and could win more, but I wouldn't know where.

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  5. Joffré,

    I am assuming that until we know otherwise. Once the various election agencies announce the official candidate lists, I will make the necessary changes.

    Earl,

    The Liberals could do better in Newfoundland - but the numbers aren't there for them, yet. Once the campaign starts, though, I expect them to rise unless Aylward shoots himself in the foot.

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  6. Does this mean you are still using data from February and May for NL?

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  7. Yes, though the projection is heavily weighted towards the newest poll (May).

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  8. The Projection for new foundland is not very realistic newfoundland and labradorians are getting fed up with the govening Progressive Conservatives the PCS will lose around 4 seats or more the NDP and Liberals are going to make gains.

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  9. Do have any plans in place if there ends up being an Election in Alberta in November, as some predict?

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  10. Anonymous 12:26,

    If you're right, the polls should start showing a shift soon.

    Brandon,

    British Columbia, too. I'll just have to put together a detailed model quickly.

    I hope neither province has an election this fall, as 2012 is looking a little light.

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  11. How do you gage the regional breakdown's in PEI i.e. central, east, west, ch'town? Is that info provided by the pollster?

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  12. The projections are based on the provincial poll numbers, there are no regional breakdowns for PEI. I break down the seat projections by region to provide a little more information and context.

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  13. The Liberals in NL are at the same place now as they were in 2007, they don't have much room for growth. The NDP hit 20% in May, after the federal election, which still isn't great if their support is not concentrated in an area.

    As of right now I'd say the NDP have some hope of winning a few seats in the St. John's area, and there are a few seats in rural NL they have a shot at. The Liberals still only have about 15 candidates in place so it's hard to know how they will do.

    I won't be the least bit surprised if the NDP and Liberal leaders are both defeated. Liberal leader Kevin Aylward is challenging high profile cabinet minister Joan Burke while former Auditor General John Noseworthy is running against the NDPs Lorraine Michael.

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  14. does anyone know where can I find the latest federal poll that shows the NDP and Cons are tied in canada?

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  15. Eric any plans to look at the HD poll ?

    Not that its particularily newsworthy. HD always has the CPC way too low.

    We all remember they were -3.6% CPC from the actual results last go around ...

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  16. Nazar: Google Harris Decima Poll. They call it the Jack Affect. For the two weeks beginning Aug. 18 they have CPC and NDP tied at 33, Liberals at 21 and Bloc at around 6.
    The regional breakdowns are also good news for the NDP, at least in the wake of Jack Layton's death.

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  17. One way or another, I'll take a look at the HD poll. Would be interesting to get a result projecting an NDP government - a first!

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  18. The HD poll is ridiculously hyped - the NDP sit at the same place they were in the last HD poll. It's the Liberals that have jumped up 6% while the Cons drop like a stone.

    No one talks about that though, no. Pft.

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  19. Anyways Eric, you won't get a result with an NDP gov't - they're still behind in Ontario and Prairies, while static in QC. Only BC and the Atlantic provide good opportunities, but not enough to put them past the Cons.

    I personally got 133 Cons, 117 NDP, and 53 Libs, plus four Bloc and Lizzy May. I bet yours will be similar.

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  20. Haven't looked at it in detail yet, you're likely right. I don't expect the NDP vote to be very efficient.

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  21. I agree that this poll has the after jack effect, but i have the right to dream :) dreaming aside, this is mixed news for the NDP. It shows that there is a possibility that they can form government. On the other hand it will encourage crooks to try to infiltrate the NDP and gain influence in a government in waiting which fortunately so far it was not a concern. I hope the NDP keep their principles and not get tempted to move to the right too much

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  22. Eric forget BC.

    Clark just told the globe and mail that an election is off until the fixed date !

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  23. Yes, I saw that last night.

    While I'm relieved that my fall season won't be any busier (especially since Alberta might take the plunge), 2012 is really starting to look empty.

    No elections are scheduled at all, with Alberta, BC, and Quebec the only ones scheduled for 2013. If Alberta goes this fall and Quebec waits until 2013, there won't be an election at all in 2012! Woe is me.

    Oh, except in the USA. That'll be a sort of biggie. But I can't imagine trying my hand at that one.

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  24. By my reckoning, the Harris-Decima numbers would generate a stable NDP minority government of about 130 seats, with more than enough Liberals to hold the balance and put the Tories in opposition.

    - Numbercruncher

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  25. Numbercruncher,

    In what world do you live in where the NDP being at 30% in Ontario, 4% behind the Cons, equals 130 seats?

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  26. Will you be doing an updated projection for PEI following the release of a new CRA poll tomorrow morning? Also, do you have a specific projection on which seat will be won by the PCs in PEI?

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  27. Anonymous,

    Yes, PEI will be updated as new polls are available. Expect the Atlantic update Wednesday.

    And yes, you can click on the list of ridings in this post or on the "Riding Projections" image in the right-hand column to see the specific riding projections for PEI.

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