With the first projections for Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador, all five provinces scheduled to have elections this fall now have running seat projections models under way at this site.
In Newfoundland and Labrador, ThreeHundredEight's first projection is a majority government for Kathy Dunderdale, with the Liberals and New Democrats tying for second.
Now, a poll has not come out of the province since the Liberals named Kevin Alyward their new leader. Whether the departure of Yvonne Jones and the arrival of Alyward changes anything remains to be seen. But until we get some new polling data, this is what we're looking at.
The Liberals win one seat in the rest of Newfoundland and one in Labrador, while the New Democrats win one seat in St. John's and the other in Labrador.
The Liberals are trailing the PCs in one and the NDP is leading them in another, giving the Liberals a range of two to three seats and the NDP a range of one to two seats.
Though the colours are different, Prince Edward Island also has a landslide on its hands.
This is another province with few polls, and the small size of the ridings (roughly 3,000 people vote in each of them) make this province more difficult to project.
There are no close races in the projection, leaving the "range" at 26 Liberal seats and one PC seat.
EDIT: After a question from a commenter, I should point out that for all provinces I am assuming parties (and independents) will run candidates in the same ridings that they did in the previous election, until the election agencies in each province releases the official candidate list. At that point, I will update the projections to accurately reflect which parties and which independents are running in each riding.
I think there could still be a few surprises. While the Saskatchewan Party and the PEI Liberals look like locks to be re-elected, the Manitoba race is looking very close and Ontario could still go either way. And in Newfoundland and Labrador, the change-up in leadership throws everything up in the air. While Dunderdale's PCs are still the odds-on favourites, it makes the race one to watch.