Friday, August 12, 2011

Ontario Election: Ridings to watch

Ontario will hold its election on Oct. 6. Premier Dalton McGuinty, who is trailing the Progressive Conservatives in the polls, will have a difficult time getting a third mandate for his Liberal government (though a new poll suggests he’s narrowing the gap with PC Leader Tim Hudak).

The New Democrats under Andrea Horwath, meanwhile, will try to capitalize on their federal counterparts’ success, further squeezing the Liberal leader.

Here are some of the ridings to watch on election night in Ontario...

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website. Articles for the two Prairie provinces and the two Atlantic provinces holding elections this fall will follow next week.

I'll have something on the latest Ipsos-Reid poll for Ontario later today, with a projection update.


  1. What an un exhaustive list. I hate when people do these "ridings to watch" list. They never really include all ridings to watch.

    You didn't mention any of the potential three way races such as London-Fanshawe, Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Scarborough Southwest. Now, those will be ridings to watch! Also, Kenora-Rainy River and Welland will be races to watch to see if the NDP can hold on to them. They have the potential to be 3-ways as well (especially Kenora).

    In Eastern Ontario, I would be watching more than just Ottawa West. Ottawa Centre will be quite interesting to see if the NDP can pick it off. Glengarry-Prescott-Russell may be interesting as well, with no incumbent. If the Tories poll better, they could pick off Ottawa-Orleans too.

    In Northern Ontario, Nipissing, Thunder Bay-Atikokan and Algoma-Manitoulin will all be races to watch as well.

    I would also throw in any rural seat held by the Liberals- especially those without incumbents such as Chatham-Kent-Essex or Elgin-Middlesex-London.

    There are also other seats without incumbents that could be interesting. Howabout Windsor West? The NDP will be looking at picking that one up.

    Also, all the seats in Mississauga and Brampton have the potential of flipping depending on how the Tories do. And where's York Centre? That's the most likely Tory pickup in Toronto at the moment.

  2. I only had room to choose ten. Sheesh.

    And if you didn't notice: "Here are SOME of the ridings to watch on election night in Ontario..."

  3. Oh ok, well, the thing about picking just *10* is quite subjective. I wouldn't have included Barrie for example, as that's pretty much a forgone conclusion it will go Tory. Same goes for Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry. Vaughan may be interesting, but there will be more interesting races to watch. Same goes for Don Valley West. The other six races you mentioned are good candidates for ridings to watch.

    That's just my two cents. If I had to pick ten I would go with:

    Kenora-Rainy River
    Ottawa Centre
    Windsor West
    Thunder Bay-Superior North
    York Centre

    I realize most of these are NDP factored seats, but those are just that much more interesting.

  4. I'm biased, but I would have included York South-Weston. While it does have an incumbent, Laura Albanese has been asleep at the wheel for the last four years. She's undergone some very heavy local weather with the Georgetown GO line and Air Rail Link proposals, and questions over whether the Eglinton LRT will even reach Weston or Jane Streets are the last things she needs. She's paying the price for being a McGuinty drone.

    Paul Ferreira has never really stopped campaigning, and he was undoubtedly buoyed by the results on May 2, where a seat that had been a Liberal lock went orange by 4,000 votes. Albanese will have undoubtedly watched the same results with trepidation.

    The PC candidate has been parachuted in (Lan Daniel is the wife of the MP for Don Valley East), and won't really be a factor beyond voters liking Tim Hudak or not.

  5. With current polling trends, I'd say about half the seats in Ontario will be competitive.

    I will be keeping an eye on these races. My list is more GTA centric as I have more knowledge on the local politics there.

    Etobicoke Lakeshore
    Scarborough Southwest
    Scarborough Rouge-River
    Ottawa West-Nepean
    Windsor West

    - Maple


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