Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Ontario race tightens in new projection

With the release of a new poll by Forum Research, the Ontario projection has been updated. Though there has been very little change, the race has narrowed in many ridings and a worst case scenario for the Tories could see them win one less seat than the Liberals.
The Progressive Conservatives are projected to win 40.5% of the vote and 60 seats, while the Liberals win 30.6% of the vote and 29 seats.

That is a drop of 0.8 points for the Tories and 0.6 points for the Liberals since the last projection. It is a gain of one seat for the Liberals and a loss of one for the Tories.

The New Democrats are up 1.1 points to 21.0%, but remain at 18 seats, while the Greens are up 0.3 points to 6.6%.

As only one seat has changed, there has been no shift in the regional breakdowns except in the Greater Toronto area.
There, the Tories are now projected to win 12 seats, down from 13, while the Liberals are up one to six.

Aside from that, the PCs are projected to win the most seats in every part of the province except Toronto (Liberals) and the North (NDP).

But it is in the marginal seats that the election will be decided, and the number of these seats has risen.
The PCs are leading by 5% or less in 16 seats and are trailing by that amount in nine seats.

The Liberals are leading by 5% or less in 10 seats and trailing by 5% or less in 16 seats in the projection, while the NDP is trailing by 5% or less in two seats.

This puts the Progressive Conservative range at between 44 and 69 seats, down from the range of 48 to 70 seats in the previous projection. It still means that 62% of the range puts the Tories in a majority situation, but a minority is still a possibility, at 38% of the range. Worse still is that with the Liberal range standing at 19 to 45 seats (an increase from 18 to 41), there is a small chance that the Liberals could win one more seat than the Tories.

The breadth of the NDP range, at 18 to 20 seats, is unchanged. But there is now less overlap with the Liberals than there was in the past projection, lowering the chances of the NDP forming the Official Opposition. Though the NDP has gained ground on both the Liberals and Tories in the popular vote in this projection, the reduction of PC support has benefited the Liberals more, as they are in more one-on-one races with the Tories.


  1. Will you also do a projection of just the latest Forum poll?

  2. Looks as if the Liberals are starting to fight back??

    If the recent Attack Ad they ran is any decent sample Hudak is in for a real mauling !!

  3. PC minority. NDP official opposition. Liberals third party.

    Those are the fundementals folks.

  4. @Anon, nope.
    NDP-Liberal coalition.

  5. All three major parties have a chance of forming government. It is unlikely that either the Liberals or NDP will be able to form a majority by themselves, unless there is a huge shift in support.

    It will be interesting to see what the Liberals and NDP would do if the Tories do not win a majority. I prefer a formal Liberal-led coalition government, but I find it hard to believe Horwath will join McGuinty's cabinet after three years of bashing him in every turn.

    I find the reverse would be harder to swallow for the Liberals; an NDP minority. I doubt the Liberals would join an NDP government. It would be interesting to see if the Liberals would prefer to prop up the NDP or the Tories. Either way they will provide discontent for half their base.

    Tories winning a minority becomes a likely scenario as Hudak becomes more exposed to voters, his lack of experience will show. I do not think the GTA will swing Tory the same way it did in the federal election.

    - Maple

  6. McGuinty and the Liberals as the incumbant government has first opportunity to deliver a throne speech so a liberal led coalition government is more likely than an NDP led government(Don't kid yourself unlike Paul Martin McGuinty and his political staff such as former Chretien pitbull Warren Kinsella will use this to their full advantage). In terms of an NDP led coalition I don't think the numbers in any circumstance are there for NDP getting more seats than the Liberals and thus having a claim on Premier's office short of a complete Liberal collapse and probably a pretty substantial PC majority.

    I suspect McGuinty would try neogotiate an accord through elder statesmen such as Jean Chretien, Ed Broadbent, Buzz Hargrove, Roy Romanow etc and avoid dealing one on one with Horwath(At a recent public appearance Chretien and McGuinty were acting quite chummy). Even better for McGuinty would be if Jack Layton's health were to prevent him from backing up Horwath.


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