Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Harper's leadership numbers jump in Quebec

On the eve of Jack Layton’s death, the NDP still dominated the province that swung so decisively in its favour on May 2.

But there are signs that the party’s support in Quebec could be at risk.

A CROP poll for La Presse that surveyed 1,000 Quebecers between August 17 and 22 found that the New Democrats still enjoyed 40 per cent support in the province, down insignificantly from the 42.9 per cent of votes cast in Quebec on election night.

The Conservatives stood at 22 per cent, up a more significant — but still modest — five points since May 2.

However, compared to CROP’s last poll in the province carried out in June, it is clear that the NDP’s position in the province could be fragile.

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

Along with the results of this federal poll, CROP reported on the provincial voting intentions of Quebecers. Those results were highlighted by La Presse last week.

With the current line-up of parties, the Liberals led that poll with 33%, followed by the Parti Québécois at 27%, the ADQ at 16%, and Québec Solidaire at 11%. "Others" stood at a preposterous 9%, so distributing that support to the existing parties bumps the Liberals to 36%, the PQ to 29%, the ADQ to 17%, and Québec Solidaire to 12%.

Those numbers would give the Liberals 64 seats, the PQ 48, the ADQ nine, and Québec Solidaire four. A rather narrow majority for Jean Charest.

But this is unlikely to be the line-up of parties on election night. François Legault's CAQ seems set to become a party, but it is difficult to take poll numbers for the CAQ seriously while the party is just a name with no candidates and a set of policies that are, at this point, somewhat vague and unlikely to be getting much notice from the general public. Nevertheless, the CAQ stands at 40% in this CROP poll, enough to propel it to a comfortable majority.