Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Harper's leadership numbers jump in Quebec

On the eve of Jack Layton’s death, the NDP still dominated the province that swung so decisively in its favour on May 2.

But there are signs that the party’s support in Quebec could be at risk.

A CROP poll for La Presse that surveyed 1,000 Quebecers between August 17 and 22 found that the New Democrats still enjoyed 40 per cent support in the province, down insignificantly from the 42.9 per cent of votes cast in Quebec on election night.

The Conservatives stood at 22 per cent, up a more significant — but still modest — five points since May 2.

However, compared to CROP’s last poll in the province carried out in June, it is clear that the NDP’s position in the province could be fragile.

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

Along with the results of this federal poll, CROP reported on the provincial voting intentions of Quebecers. Those results were highlighted by La Presse last week.

With the current line-up of parties, the Liberals led that poll with 33%, followed by the Parti Québécois at 27%, the ADQ at 16%, and Québec Solidaire at 11%. "Others" stood at a preposterous 9%, so distributing that support to the existing parties bumps the Liberals to 36%, the PQ to 29%, the ADQ to 17%, and Québec Solidaire to 12%.

Those numbers would give the Liberals 64 seats, the PQ 48, the ADQ nine, and Québec Solidaire four. A rather narrow majority for Jean Charest.

But this is unlikely to be the line-up of parties on election night. François Legault's CAQ seems set to become a party, but it is difficult to take poll numbers for the CAQ seriously while the party is just a name with no candidates and a set of policies that are, at this point, somewhat vague and unlikely to be getting much notice from the general public. Nevertheless, the CAQ stands at 40% in this CROP poll, enough to propel it to a comfortable majority.


  1. I think, as Eric's piece points out, we need to give the recent fervor over Layton's death a bit of time to settle out.

    Then we'll see although I suspect Charest will maintain his lead.

  2. The 9% others leads me to wonder what king of party is missing in Quebec.

    Maybe an Anglo-tolerating party focusing on actual Quebec politics and problems, while deliberately having no stance on separation and no interest to legislate language issues?

  3. No, I imagine the 9% are people who want to vote for Legault's party (or a new sovereigntist party), despite it not being listed as an option.

    Support for "Other" picked up once talk of Legault's party sprung up.

  4. Goaltender Interference30 August, 2011 17:02

    Polls mean not much during the summer two years before an election, especially when one of the major choices is a theoretical party that most people haven't examined.

    Legault's numbers reminds me of the sky-high polling numbers Charest would get when he was still PC leader, saying he would wipe the floor with the PQ if he were Quebec Liberal Leader. When he actually became Liberal leader, his numbers fell and he lost the 1998 election.

  5. Sorry Eric.

    Interpreting polls is not enough. One has to 'feel' the wind and 'sense' people's mood to predict precisely ... nothing. Quebecker's mood right now is to vote for Mr. Change. Whether he or she is left, right or center. This feeling has endured since May 2nd, and there has not been any opposite wind. On the contrary, Pauline Marois' difficulties are followed eagerly by the majority and thrill us all. Another one bites (or will bite) the dust. THRILLING! Like in the 1976 provincial campaign, for those who remember, Quebecker are walking around right now with a broom and they are ready to clean sweap anyone in the way.

    Marcus Aurelius


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