Wednesday, August 24, 2011

PQ plunges as Charest gains, even against Legault

Turmoil in the sovereignty movement has had a dramatic impact on provincial politics in Quebec this summer, with the Parti Québécois polling at new lows and an uptick in support for Premier Jean Charest’s governing Liberals. 

A new poll conducted by Léger Marketing for the Journal de Montréal finds that Charest’s government now enjoys the support of 34 per cent of Quebecers, up four points from Léger’s last poll taken in early June

The Parti Québécois has dropped six points to just 24 per cent — a full 14 points below the party’s standing from four months ago. 

The Action démocratique du Québec (ADQ) is down three points to 14 per cent while Québec Solidaire stands at 12 per cent support and the provincial Greens scored five per cent.

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

UPDATE: I also have a piece on The Globe and Mail website this morning:

Trailing Tory Leader Tim Hudak in the polls and ranking as one of the country’s least popular premiers, Dalton McGuinty does have one ace up his sleeve in the upcoming provincial election in Ontario: a Conservative government in Ottawa.

Quebec will probably not have another election until next fall or even 2013, as Charest is less than three years into his five year term. But politics in the province are currently the most volatile in the country. The Parti Québécois has gone from front-runner to trailing by 10 points in a matter of months, while the potential formation of new parties (François Legault's CAQ or a new sovereigntist party called the Nouveau Mouvement pour le Québec) is throwing everything out of whack.

The formation of the CAQ seems inevitable, but poll numbers for the phantom party will only mean something when Quebecers start paying attention to what it has to say. The creation of the NMQ is, perhaps, less likely but even if it captures 5% of the vote it would severely hinder the PQ's chances in a three-way race between Marois, Charest, and Legault.

But things happen so quickly in Quebec that by the time the election rolls around the landscape could have completely transformed again.


  1. Why does the National Assembly have so many seats? Has there been any talk of reducing it? There are 125 seats now, I think it could be reduced to 75.

  2. There is talk of increasing it.

    Why do they have so many seats? They actually don't. Most legislatures in Canada have more seats per capita than Quebec:

    PE - 5,000 people per seat
    NL - 11,000 people per seat
    NB - 14,000 people per seat
    SK - 18,000 people per seat
    NS - 18,000 people per seat
    MB - 22,000 people per seat
    AB - 43,000 people per seat
    BC - 54,000 people per seat
    QC - 64,000 people per seat
    ON - 124,000 people per seat

  3. Seems to me McGuinty's greatest asset may be Hudak??

    The reaction against this Mike Harris clone just gets stronger and stronger !!

  4. @308: Will you do a seat projection based on the last Léger Poll? I think it would be really interesting as there are rumors of provincial election for november in Quebec...

  5. Anonymous 10:50,

    I did a seat projection, it is in the Huffington Post article.

  6. For those who catch the national news on either CBC or CTV what the early parts of the shows cover is the Layton mourning.

    It's interesting as a coverage of not a nations mourning but a celebration of a life.

    That's far more this country IMO

  7. Goaltender Interference25 August, 2011 08:28

    Interesting strategy of Legault to not set up a political party yet. For now, he can be all things to all people, has no candidates with embarrassing pasts and no platform to be criticized by other parties. His message can simply be, "Trust me, I'm a good leader, you're tired of all the other options."

    It's a risky strategy as it means that negative stuff can come out of the closet at the last minute, and his team will have to spend a lot of time near the next election organizing rather than campaigning.

  8. Or does this mean sovereignty is dying in Quebec ??

  9. It was at 40% (or so, reports aren't specific) in a CROP poll this week, and 36% in a Leger poll this week. That's generally where it has been for a long time, so it doesn't seem that the option is unpopular - just the parties pushing it.

  10. Something viewed as a "Good Thing" as distinct from something actively supported are two distinctly different things.

    So while the concept may still be popular the question, in the face of the facts of what has happened since the referendum, may be causing a shift from the concept to a search for parties that will support the "progressive" view but actually be able to do something about it??


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