Dogged by student strikes and the looming inquiry into construction-industry corruption, Jean Charest is nevertheless in a neck-and-neck battle with the Parti Québécois as the remaining lifespan of his government can be counted in months.
According to ThreeHundredEight.com’s seat and vote projection model, the Parti Québécois currently holds a narrow lead over the Quebec Liberals with 33.1 per cent to 32 per cent support. While this represents a significant gain for both parties since the end of February, with the PQ picking up 3.7 points and the Liberals three, it is a far closer race than was recorded by the polls only a few weeks ago.
You can read the rest of the article on The Globe and Mail website here.
I had been intending to maintain detailed seat and vote projections for Quebec as I had done with Alberta, but it does not appear very likely that the province will be going to the polls until the fall at least.
Instead, we have two by-elections to look forward to. LaFontaine should be rather straight-forward, but it will be interesting to see if the Liberal vote drops. Argenteuil will be far more interesting, though it is still a relatively safe Liberal seat. However, the CAQ is running Mario Laframboise, a former Bloc MP from the region, and the ADQ finished only eight points behind the Liberals in the 2007 election. So, François Legault could pull off an upset in Argenteuil, and if he does it will give us an indication that the CAQ is far from a sinking ship.