Monday, May 14, 2012

With students in streets, Charest faces tough slog with PQ in polls

Dogged by student strikes and the looming inquiry into construction-industry corruption, Jean Charest is nevertheless in a neck-and-neck battle with the Parti Québécois as the remaining lifespan of his government can be counted in months.

According to ThreeHundredEight.com’s seat and vote projection model, the Parti Québécois currently holds a narrow lead over the Quebec Liberals with 33.1 per cent to 32 per cent support. While this represents a significant gain for both parties since the end of February, with the PQ picking up 3.7 points and the Liberals three, it is a far closer race than was recorded by the polls only a few weeks ago.


You can read the rest of the article on The Globe and Mail website here.

I had been intending to maintain detailed seat and vote projections for Quebec as I had done with Alberta, but it does not appear very likely that the province will be going to the polls until the fall at least.

Instead, we have two by-elections to look forward to. LaFontaine should be rather straight-forward, but it will be interesting to see if the Liberal vote drops. Argenteuil will be far more interesting, though it is still a relatively safe Liberal seat. However, the CAQ is running Mario Laframboise, a former Bloc MP from the region, and the ADQ finished only eight points behind the Liberals in the 2007 election. So, François Legault could pull off an upset in Argenteuil, and if he does it will give us an indication that the CAQ is far from a sinking ship.

15 comments:

  1. I supported Charest's hard line with the students right up until the moment when he agreed to talk with them.

    Charest negotiated with terrorists. That's never okay.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ha ha ha... Too funny.

      You are kidding, right?

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    2. You (and Charest) have broadened the category of "terrorists" to include, basically, everybody. Or possibly just everybody you don't happen to like or agree with.

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    3. Charest was right to be hard with the students. Quebec has the lowest tuition rates in all of Canada. The students are just whiny spoiled brats who expects the government to only govern for them. If you can't take any sacrifices today for the well being of society, then you can't be tomorrow's leaders.

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    4. Two points here Anon.

      First Bill 78 will NOT survive a Charter challenge !!

      Second what you are seeing in Quebec is Occupy with leadership. Something all those other Occupy's haven't had and the result is gains for the students !!

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    5. I like the point made by a number of students in the demos: You pay for my education, and I'll pay for your retirement.

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  2. Gotta say for the Teflon Don this is looking a bit "sticky" !!

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  3. No updates Eric, why? It couldn't because the NDP are hammering the Libs and the Tories, right? Sure.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Believe it or not, I'm a real flesh-and-blood person who takes a vacation now and then.

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    2. I wish there were little thumbs icon so I could give Éric a thumbs up and anonymous a thumbs down.

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    3. Yannick I'm 100% with you on that !!

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  4. Jean Charest's career is like a zombie: slow, plodding, irresistible, and no matter how many times you gun it down, it picks up and keeps shambling your way.

    Seriously, how does someone survive as many scandals as this man? It's incredible!

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    Replies
    1. ha ha ha. Now that is seriously funny! And true, unfortunately...

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  5. Welcome back Eric! I hope you enjoyed you vacation.

    Angus Reid published a B.C. poll a while ago, with the NDP reaching 50%. Maybe you would like to take a look at that. Clark also criticized Angus Reid for coming up with the poll, something I find quite surprising frankly. Either she is really not thinking before speaking, or the poll really freak her out.

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