Thursday, May 10, 2012

NDP leads, could win plurality of seats

After last week's teaser, Harris-Decima has completed and released the full results of their regular two-week survey. It increases the NDP lead by one (the last week must have been a good one for them) and points to the New Democrats being capable - for the first time, I believe - of winning the most seats in the House all on their own.
Since this poll incorporates the data from Harris-Decima's release last week, it is more instructive to compare the results to their last full two-week survey of Mar. 22 to Apr. 2.

The New Democrats are up two points since then to 34%, while the Conservatives have dropped four points to 30%.

The Liberals are up one to 20%, while the Greens are unchanged at 8% support.

As you can see, the weighted averages of all polls now give the New Democrats an outright lead of 33.4% to 32.4% for the Conservatives.

Harris-Decima shows a remarkably close race in Ontario, with the three parties virtually tied. The Tories are down nine points since the end of March and beginning of April to only 32%, trailed closely by the NDP at 31% (+5) and the Liberals at 28% (+4).

Things are stable in Quebec, with the NDP down one point to 38% and the Bloc Québécois up three points to 27%. The Liberals are unchanged at 14%, while the Conservatives are down two to 12%.

The NDP leads in British Columbia with 39% (-5) and Atlantic Canada with 44% (+8), while they trail in second with 39% (+5) in the Prairies and 17% (-2) in Alberta.

The Conservatives are ahead in Alberta (55%, +1) and the Prairies (43%, -2), and are second in British Columbia with 32% (+2). The Liberals hold second in Atlantic Canada with 30% support, unchanged.

The seat projection gives the New Democrats the plurality of seats for, if I am not mistaken, the first time here on ThreeHundredEight. It is likely the first time since at least the late 1980s, in that brief period where Ed Broadbent was on top.

With Harris-Decima's numbers, the New Democrats would win 128 seats, with the Conservatives winning 112 and the Liberals 58. The Bloc Québécois would win nine seats and the Greens one.

The NDP wins 17 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, 11 in the Prairies, 27 in Ontario, 55 in Quebec, 16 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the North. In the 338-seat House, they would likely win 137 seats (a decrease in share from 41.6% to 40.5%).

The Conservatives win 15 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 16 in the Prairies, 47 in Ontario, four in Quebec, two in Atlantic Canada, and one in the North. In the expanded House, their share would likely increase from 36.4% of all seats to 37.9%, or 128.

The Liberals win three seats in British Columbia, one in the Prairies, 32 in Ontario, seven in Quebec, 14 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the North. They would likely win 62 seats with the new boundaries.

Harris-Decima lays out the path to a Mulcair victory - the NDP continuing its dominance of Quebec and winning British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, while increasing their representation in the Prairies and Ontario. But the New Democrats actually need the Liberals in Ontario, as in this case it is that party that unseats a lot of Conservatives and gives the plurality of seats nationwide to the NDP.

The Conservatives are certainly in trouble if the race in Ontario becomes as close as this. They have faltered greatly in Atlantic Canada to the benefit of the NDP, and are trailing in British Columbia in almost every poll. That is a somewhat varied clientele for them to have to win back, especially when you add Saskatchewan to the mix.

But has Thomas Mulcair's honeymoon hit its peak? Have Stephen Harper's troubles caused his party to hit rock-bottom, and the only way to go now is up? Or is this what we can expect for the next three years, the two parties vying for top spot in the mid-30s, much like the Liberals and Conservatives did for most of the minority era? Interesting times.

75 comments:

  1. Mulcair is at the peak of his honey moon and there have been no attack ads yet.

    Ignatieff and Dion both led Harper in the polls at various points too.

    What's going on then ?

    Dutch disease is what. The Tories are letting this guy get confident, give him enough room to say stupid things like Bin Laden isn't really dead its a US conspiracy.

    Then a bit closer to an election call him out on all this stuff.

    PS - If its a two person race between the CPC and the NDP those LPC numbers will not hold. The center will be torn in half as each party appeals strategically to stop the other.

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    1. There have been attack ads against Mulcair but they were weak and ineffective. The Tories have lost the chance to define Mulcair's image in the way they were able to define Dion and Ignatieff.

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    2. And it's worth noting that Mulcair is plainly more capable (and practiced) than either Dion or Ignatieff in handling his image.

      Btw, Mulcair never said that there was a US conspricy and that Bin Laden was actually alive. Mulcair doubted that there were photos showing Bin Laden reaching for a gun. Nothing more. Go back to CBC or youtube (or wherever) and watch the Evan Solomon interview and the follow-up. Even if you don't bother, that non-story happened ages ago - how has it affected Mulcair's popularity?

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    3. They haven't lost the chance yet. A majority of Canadians still don't know who Mulcair is. Harper has plenty of opportunity.

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    4. Anonymous could you tell us all which CPC minister you are emplied by or are you so entreched in the CPC that you can not see the light of day.

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  2. Ed Broadbent actually led in Quebec in some polls, and had 40% of the vote throughout the country. They also had 50% in Ontario, probably enough to win almost ever seat in that province.

    It will be interesting to see how much Mulcair's stupid comments about the oil sands will affect his numbers in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

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    1. Thanks for the information, I have edited. I had thought that Broadbent had only led by a narrow margin, but now that you have mentioned it I recall seeing some old polls with them as high as you say.

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    2. We'll see how stupid they sound outside of Alberta. You know that Harper isn't supposed to PM of Alberta right? Or did you forget that?

      Arthur Cramer

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    3. Mining, oil, and natural gas extraction takes place in BC, Alberta, Sask, Manitoba, Newfoundland, and Northern Ontario.

      These sectors provide spin off jobs to engineers, high tech, and manufacturing sectors in Ontario and Quebec.

      Being offended by ridiculous "Dutch Disease" comments is not an Alberta only thing.

      Harper is the one taking a pan-Canadian PM of everybody perspective.

      Its Mulcair that's playing to a narrow base of environmentalists in big cities and scape goat hungry auto workers in Ontario.

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    4. And yet, Anonymous 15:36, the NDP numbers have gone up in SK/MB, Ontario and the Atlantic (don't forget that natural gas extraction on a limited scale happens in NS as well).

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    5. Concern about runaway global climate change and about the destruction of the environment also takes place in BC, Alberta, Sask, Manitoba, Newfoundland, and Northern Ontario.

      Conservative Premier Danny Williams didn't give away Newfoundland's oil reserves while bowing and scraping to the oil multinationals. Social Credit Premier WAC Bennett built a government-run energy powerhouse, BC Hydro. Our latest crop of "conservatives," in contrast, are tools of Big Oil, pure and simple.

      They're putting all their economic development eggs in that one basket, to hell with the manufacturing, tourism, and trade in services that takes place in every province.

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    6. In addition, Dutch disease comments are no where near as stupid as the Nazi comments.

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    7. I don't think suggesting the Harper Gobvernment shows more concern than the NDP for Ontario auto workers is a particularly winning argument...

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    8. I completely agree with GHG.

      Let's not forget Mulroney was the greenest PM that Canada ever had. He put in the acid rain treaty and started the discussions that led to the Kyoto Protocol. But now Harper is erasing everything that Conservatives used to stand for and putting in his Reform and tea-party style policies.

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  3. This is a thing of beauty.

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  4. What's the third seat you have for the Liberals in BC? Vancouver-South?

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  5. The NDP have led national polls twice before, for a couple of months each time. First in mid-1987 under Broadbent, and still ended up in third place in the following election in 1988.

    The second occurrence was at the end of 1990 under Audrey McLaughlin when Chretien's numbers plummeted after winning the Liberal leadership. They ended up with 9 seats at the next election.

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    1. Eric, you edited but I guess you didn't believe me when I said the NDP had a lead in 1990. Here is a link to a Gallup poll from January 1991, where they had 43%. This was after Broadbent left.
      http://www.library.carleton.ca/sites/default/files/find/data/surveys/ascii_files/gllp-91-jan101_1-doc

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    2. Comparing the NDP's strength now to its strength in the late 80s and early 90s is not a prudent thing to do. The NDP had unpopular governments in Ontario and BC at the time of the 1993 election, and the Liberals were a far strong party in 1987 then they are now. Currently NDP support is on the upswing pretty much everywhere other than Alberta. There aren't unpopular, recession-mired NDP governments anywhere, as there where in Ontario and BC.

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    3. the NDP is on the upswing even in Alberta, for what it's worth...

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    4. I beg to differ...

      There are still unpopular NDP governments in Canada. There are the Saskstchewan NDP and Manitoba's Selinger NDP. The former got decimated in the last election because the Sask Party handled the economy very well while the NDP couldn't. The latter is getting tired, dishonest, and hated by the people.

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  6. "PS - If its a two person race between the CPC and the NDP those LPC numbers will not hold. The center will be torn in half as each party appeals strategically to stop the other."
    No that won't happen I'm quite sure. The blue Liberals already left for the Tories in the 2011 election and appear to still be with the Tories in these recent polls. You can't predict anything in politics so definitive statements such as "The following will happen. Period." are not that useful. That said, I'm quite sure the centre is not dead in Canada despite what many people keep saying.

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    1. @Brendan isn't it ironic, don't ya think that the Liberals were the ones playing the strategic voting card for all those years ?

      Now it'll be used against them by Tories trying to scare people away from the NDP and Mulcair trying to scare people away from Harper.

      OH sure, maybe they'll get 10-15%.

      But that's it. That's all you can get in a polarized left-right race.

      The lines between the NDP and CPC are soooo stark this is basically going to be an "are you a Capitalist or Socialist ??" election.

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    2. The Liberals tried the strategic voting card and it failed. Why should we expect it to work for the NDP?

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    3. Actually anon that's not correct. In BC, for example, we tend to split left and right provincially. And while the right has prevailed in the past, the left still wins a lot more than 10 to 15 per cent. I realize the CPC wants the Libs to dissapear so it can take advantage of a left-right split, but that simply isn't going to happen. The CPC is starting to slip. As that progresses, the Liberals will swing to their natural place, the center-right, and start picking off CPC support. Actually in one way you might be right, if the CPC implodes like I think it might. Only the left-right split will be between the Libs and the NDP with the CPC picking up the dregs (mostly in the two western Prairie provinces.)

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    4. Ryan, as a New Democrat, I have always been an opponent of the strategic vote strategy, especially because it ALWAYS elects Liberals. Vote Lib if that is your preference. But don't vote out of strategy. Vote for what it is you believe. That should be THE ONLY decider.

      Arthur Cramer

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  7. Thank the lord. Hope it stays this way.

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  8. I haven't seen anything yet that would drag the NDP numbers back down. They may well settle a bit as the current batch of scandals dies down, but also maybe not. The next set of leadership index numbers from Nanos is going to be extremely interesting. If Harper's personal brand has taken a major hit, these kind of numbers could well be the new normal.

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  9. @Eric

    The seniors group C.A.R.P. has another poll(2000+) out, and apparently the first time ever that the NDP have been in the lead!

    Also a bunch of other questions about OAS, the omin-budget, etc.

    http://www.imakenews.com/eletra/mod_input_proc.cfm?XXDESXXsurvey.id=45212&mode=view&mod_name=surveyresults&XXDESXXbackto=http://www.imakenews.com/carp/index000591003.cfm&XXDESXXshow_votes=T&XXDESXXuser=carp


    Current Details:
    ------------
    25.1 % Conservative
    20.6 % Liberal
    29.0 % NDP
    2.9 % Green Party

    Jan. 2011 details:
    ------------
    52.0 % Conservative
    32.0 % Liberal
    12.0 % NDP
    5.0 % Green Party


    EM

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    1. The methodology on that poll is sketchy though. It asks a whole bunch of questions that will produce negative sentiments toward the CPC and only at the end asks the vote intention question. It should be the other way around. If they want to measure the impact of those questions on the vote intention, they ought to ask vote intention twice, beginning and end, to see if it changed anything. As it is, that methodology is not reliable.

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    2. Just passing the numbers along to Eric!

      But over a 50% drop in support(52.0% » 25.1%) from one of the CPC's main voting bases since last year is rather amazing!

      Apparently about 3/4 of seniors vote compared to the general population!

      EM

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    3. The whole point is that the numbers are largely meaningless because of the flawed methodology. You can't draw any conclusions from numbers derived by a flawed method.

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    4. CARP is a very thinly disguised Liberal support group.

      CARP totally supported the Liberal last election and total failed to represent the concerns of a vast majority of seniors.


      CARP provides minimal benefits to members, that usually are availble elsewhere.

      The AARP (American version that CARP is based on) actually does provide benefits to members as well as being a Democratic political support group.

      Because of their political stance a new senior organization providing the same benefits - AMAC has been formed.

      The results of this survey have as much credibility as Greenpeace poll would have on CPC support.

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    5. LOL, more Harper apologies. 50% drop is notthing and its wrong.

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  10. God help us all...

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    1. Why?

      Arthur Cramer

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    2. There's no need for that. Mulcair will take Canada out of the darkness that Stephen Harper has put in. 2015 will be the start of Canada's next progressive decade. The future of Canada would never have looked brighter.

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  11. The NDP really needs to step it up in Ontario as even though they trail the Conservatives by 1%, they earn 20 fewer seats (even 5 fewer than the Liberals who are 3% below them). This is why keeping the Conservatives down is more important than obliterating the Liberals because a two-way race in Ontario would mean the Conservatives benefit from an inefficient NDP vote.

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  12. Mark my words - if the CPC and NDP are essentially tied in the Ontario popular vote in the next election (i.e. anything like the 32-31 split in this poll), there is no way that the CPC would get 47 seats and the NDP 27. If the CPC to NDP gap shrunk from 18 points to 1 point...it would never be an even province wide swing - instead you would see the NDP coming out of nowhere in ridings they had never previously been competitive in and you would see a lot of replication of the what we saw in places like Scarborough Rouge River and Bramalea-Gore Malton. If anything the Tories would probably be disadvantaged because they tend to pile up supersized majorities in exurban places like Oakville and Richmond Hill while the NDP tends to win rdings in inner cities and in Northern Ontario that are usually smaller.

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    1. The CPC's vote in rural ontario is very strong and efficient. While the NDP's base in inner cities is not as efficient or strong. And Northern Ontario don't have a lot of seats, so the NDP still couldn't overtake the CPC even if they completely sweep Northern Ontario. So if the CPC and the NDP are tied in Ontario, I would guess that the CPC will still win more seats.

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  13. Mark in Mexico10 May, 2012 19:13

    I have heard and read repeatedly that if the NDP cannot make a big breakthrough in Ontario, then they cannot form government. Yet this projection says quite the opposite and lays the groundwork for an unusual scenario in which Ontario is no longer kingmaker.

    Not since 1926 has a party won a federal election on the strength of as few Ontario seats (24) as in this projection (27). And 1926's 24 was proportionally greater than 2011's 27.

    Parties have won federal elections without carrying Ontario, but this would be the first time a party won a federal election AND finished third in seats in Ontario.

    In an odd way, the three-way fight in "Battleground Ontario" levels the playing field so evenly that the parties' seats seem to cancel each other out.

    The result would be a noteworthy role reveral of sorts. Québec, having long relegated itself to the Opposition benches for many years, sees itself as the heart of the caucus governing the nation. The bulk of the Ontario caucus, normally found within the government, finds itself across the aisle.

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    1. As a westerner, this is a breath of fresh air. Finally we won't be dictated by arrogant Ontarians who thinks that they are the only Canadians and everywhere else is "the north". Finally we will have an alliance between westerners and Quebec, the only two places where democracy flourishes in this country.

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    2. The only such arrogant Ontarians are those in the mainstream media. The people of Ontario are like Canadians anywhere else, they just vote for whom they like and hope for the best. Don't presume that the folks of Bobcaygeon or Jane-Finch feel any better represented by Parliament than the people of Melfort or High River.

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  14. I would like to see a riding by riding now since it would be interesting to see how it would be spread out with and NDP lead. Provinces/Poll regions are too large

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  15. The problem with thinking that the Conservative scandals will subside is thinking that the Conservative party's scandals are finite. Any cub reporter journalist is going to be trying to uncover the latest scoop well into the next election cycle. But the biggest scandal of all will be the cumulative deficit under Harper from 2006-2015 (or the next 'snap' election). My money is on Harper not standing for the next election. He'll be a professor at the University of Calgary or some emissary before he stands on a 10 year record of deficits.

    ~MTN

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    1. No, he'll be an oil company lobbyist, or maybe he'll be writing his memoirs.

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  16. Try and catch Don Martin's Power Play of today on CTV.

    Very interesting bits on NDP !!

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  17. You watch Rex Murphy's take on Mulcair's view
    on stopping the tar sands to and force the dollar
    down to the benefit of mainly Que and Ont.
    Tar sands are the driver of the west and that
    would cause friction and fires Mulcair may not
    know how to put out.

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    1. First, we don't call it the "Tar Sands", we call it the Oil Sands. Second, Mulcair is just a leader for Toronto and Quebec, and knows nothing about our economy and our way of life. The NDP is just a eastern Canada protest group. If Mulcair is just having low 30's support, then they would be destroyed in the next election by the Tories.

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    2. The NDP (CCF) was formed on the prairies... get your history right, bud. And what about the party's popularity in BC, Atlantic Canada and Manitoba...

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    3. Yes, I know the NDP is formed on the prairies. But they are very unpopular there. Look at Saskatechwan's NDP, and Manitoba's NDP. The first got decimated in the last election, because they can't handle the economy as well as the Sask Party. The second will have governed for almost two decades. They are getting dishonest and tired, and are becoming unpopular. Also, the federal NDP in the last decade focused their campaings on Ontario, Quebec and eastern Canada, while melting away in the west. Yes, its true the NDP is on the upswing in BC, but that's mostly because the right is divided there, and there isn't a single rallying point for right wing BCers to unite under. So while I respect your opinion, I would go so far to say the NDP is a party for eastern Canada.

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    4. Oh, and don't get me wrong. I may have said that NDP is unpopular here in the prairies and a party for eastern Canada, but I actually like the NDP, now if only they stood up more for western Canada instead of re-opening the west-east rift, then I would vote for them.

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    5. And, if you have paid attention, I didn't say that the NDP was a eastern Canada protest group, I said the NDP "is" a eastern Canada protest group. So nowhere in my sentence have I referred to the NDP's history. So get your grammar right, bud.

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    6. You are conflating provincial with federal politics. The split right wing in BC is provincial, not federal, where for some time now the battle is straight up between the Cons and the NDP. In Manitoba, you give the answer yourself by pointing out that the provincial NDP has been in power for almost 20 years, its tired and dishonest - but that doesn't likely have any bearing on the popularity of the federal party - witness the poll numbers. The same applies to the Saskatchewan NDP, whose record in the '90s was the farthest right (openly Blairite, actually) of any NDP government... Many NDP supporters were turned off by their defacto abandonment of traditional NDP policies/values. But for many people, the party of Layton and Mulcair represents a resurgence of those values. Remains to be seen if they'll deliver.

      Also, growing up in Calgary in the 1970s, we always referred to the "tar sands"... "oil sands" is a more recent euphemism. Actually, around 1980 I had a dozen shares in the "Syncrude Tarsands"... how rich I'd be if I still had them... ha ha.

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    7. Dan in Calgary11 May, 2012 14:07

      Oil Sands (used by Alberta govt/oil co's etc) vs Tar Sands (used by environmentalists) is basically just a PR battle to control messaging through the name itself.

      To anonymous - NDP has never had provincial governments in AB so I think its disingenuous to use 20-30 year old cliched rhetorical arguments about other provincial governments. Try tangible facts one day - thanks, bud.

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  18. Benefit mainly Ontario and Quebec? Wrong. The BC manufacturing sector is in the tank too because of the high dollar, mountain pine beetle and raw log exports.

    Make no mistake the Dutch Disease message rings true out here too!

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  19. Who ever said anything about "stopping" the tar sands in the first place?

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    1. Um, basically the majority of NDPers and their shadow cabinet? Even Alberta NDP MP Linda Duncan is siding with the anti-oil sands people. A vote for the NDP is a vote to destroy the oil industry.

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    2. Dan in Calgary11 May, 2012 14:11

      Why would Linda Duncan stray from party policy? Edmonton-Strathcona isnt as much of an oil riding as alot of others surrounding Edmonton and in Calgary

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  20. I tried to post a comment on the fund raising of the parties.

    I included the fact that NDP fund raising was increasing and Liberal Fund rasing was in decline.

    I also pointed out that CPC fundraising was increasing by $900,000 over the last Quarter and the NDP were up $400,000 in Q1, 2012 and Liberals were down $300,000.

    The NDP were still in 3rd place behind the Liberal party that seems to be in distress but still is raising more money than the NDP in the Quarter that the NDP had their leadership.

    The Harris Decima poll showing the NDP in the lead will help the CPC increase their already huge fund raising gap over the Liberals and NDP.

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    1. That's because the NDP had a leadership election in the first quarter, which created a lot of new memberships and new revenue for that party. The Liberals hardly had any fundraising events at all in the first quarter, that would explain its decline. Also, the CPC will not increase their fundraising gap in the long term. The reason why their fundraising was increasing in the first quarter is because a lot of its members choose to renew their memberships, or give to an annual fund, at the start of the year.

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    2. Perhaps, but Harper is so toxic now that all the money in the world won't help him now, unless he expands on elections fraud. Too many lies. Canadians are angry and fed up with his deceit.

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    3. CPC fund raising in Q1:

      2009 - 3.4M
      2010 - 4.0M
      2011 - 7.3M --- election May 2.
      2012 - 5.0

      The CPC is preparing for the loss of the per vote subsidy.

      The NDP

      2009 - .5 M
      2010- .9 M
      2011 - 1.9 M election May
      2012 - 2.0 M

      The Liberals

      2009 - 1.8M
      2010 - 1.4 M
      2011 - 2.6 M election in May
      2012 - 2.3 M

      As much as polls the fund raisng is a leading indicator of a parties success.

      The fact that the NDP still trails the Liberals in Q1 fund raising is a HUGE indicator of a Liberal comeback and NDP slide back.

      The CPC is up 1.4 M in fund raising from Q1 2009 to Q1 2010. Q1 is the traditional worst (non-election) fund raising Quarter for the CPC .... Christmas credit card payments?

      The NDP fund raising is just incredibly bad for a party that Eric and HD is taking seriously as forming the next government. Very few people believe in the NDP them enough to kick in $20 of their coffee money.

      I don't think that the CBC has ever had such an outright attack on a non-CPC leader as Rex Murphy did on Mulcair. The lack of CBC support will counter-act the spending on on-election advertizing that the NDP spent a lot of money on defining Mulcair.

      Chretien came through Adscam and Shawinigate with solid support from the CBC. Mulcair just voices a bad understanding of economic principles (hardly an NDP or Quebeckers strongpoint) and BOOM the hammer came down.

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    4. And BOOM! the robofraud hammer will come down and it will be Kim Campbell redux for Harper.

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    5. Harper is finished and it will take a lot more than dumb statement to ruin Mulcair. Harper is living proof of that with all his stupid statements and dishonesty. Harper is toxic and is finished.

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    6. Boom! Harper is so toxic now he is finished. Fund raising won't change that now. Canadians are sick of his dishonesty and are going for the NDP. Hang on to your fundraising numbers, I know its all you've got with Harper tanking in the polls.

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  21. There's one thing I don't trust in this poll. The Green Party couldn't be at 12 percent in Alberta.

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    1. I agree. The most the Green Party could have in Alberta is in single digits, there's no way they could have 12 percent in Alberta.

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    2. but they have polled in that neighbourhood before... however improbable that seems

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    3. Dan in Calgary11 May, 2012 14:20

      why - the 2008 general election they pulled 8.8% of the votes in Alberta....

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    4. Dan In Calgary11 May, 2012 15:55

      also.. when did we start trusting Alberta polling ;) after what happened a few weeks ago? I was going to mention then it seemed to me polling here has always underrepresented conservative strength and over estimated opposition compared to election result. So while 12% is a reach maybe it fell on the very high end within margin of error and capturing some protest vote that dont actually vote on E-day.

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  22. Lets face it, the Liberal brand is as good as dead!

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  23. ~~ we don't call it the "Tar Sands" ~~ It? by it do you mean the clumpy filthy tar filled sands in Alberta? Why do you call it Oil? It's never Oil in Alberta, it gets shipped where no matter what they do they Tar based Oil is so dirty they passed a law in US forbidding its use in the military. TarSands, its the ethical way to describe the filth.

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  24. Decima messieurs, Decima! I worked there a decade ago! This is it: the end of Tory rule in favour of the NDP and a possible coalition government under their graces, not under the Liberals!

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  25. I believe "anonymous" above, is the same guy who predicted that the NDP vote would collapse when Jack Layton sadly passed away. (Same name, anyway!)

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