Monday, June 1, 2009

Angus-Reid Details

The details of the Angus-Reid poll are available.

This poll contains a few notable differences from the norm. In Quebec, the NDP is listed at 17%, putting them well ahead of the Conservatives. In the Prairies, the NDP is up to 28%, above the Liberals at 21% and behind the Tories at 38%. Finally, in the Atlantic, there is a three way tie: Conservatives and NDP at 29% and the Liberals at 28%. Of course, the Atlantic polling sample is always one of the smallest, so this is an outlier result.

This is the amount of seats each party would win if this poll were the electoral result:

Conservatives - 120
Liberals - 114
Bloc Quebecois - 48
New Democrats - 25
Greens - 1

Despite being a few points below the Liberals nationally, the Tories still form government on the strength of their 71 seats west of Ontario. The Liberals manage to get themselves within a few seats of the Conservatives on the strength of their 82 seats in Ontario and Quebec. The Atlantic result is what throws this seat projection out of whack, as the three-way tie results in 14/10/7 seats for the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP, respectively. It even allows the Greens to go through the middle and win a seat (all the more likely now that Peter MacKay might not run in the next election). If the Atlantic poll had been within the norm, this poll would likely have resulted in a slim Liberal minority.