Monday, June 8, 2009

Polling Firm Tendencies (Update)

I've added Nanos Research to the polling firm leaning rankings. The methods of Nanos tend to favour the Liberals and under-poll the Bloc Quebecois. The Conservatives fare worse in Nanos polls nationally and in Ontario, but do slightly better in Quebec. The NDP does slightly better nationally and in Quebec, but worse in Ontario. The Greens do worse nationally and in Quebec, but poll slightly above average in Ontario in Nanos surveys.

These are the rankings - to be constantly added to and updated - of the various polling firms in terms of their tendencies to favour one party over another. This does not necessarily equate to a deliberate bias, but instead is more reflective of the polling methods used.

As you can see, the list is not complete yet.

The following lists show each pollster's average variation from other polling firms. The numbers are the amount of percentage points a particular pollster favours or disfavours that particular party compared to other pollsters.

NATIONAL - CONSERVATIVE PARTY

1. Ipsos-Reid +2.9
2. Angus-Reid Strategies +1.9
3. Léger Marketing -0.4
4. EKOS Research -1.1
5. Nanos Research -1.5
6. Harris-Decima -2.6

NATIONAL - LIBERAL PARTY

1. Nanos Research +2.6
2. EKOS Research +2.3
3. Léger Marketing +2.2
4. Ipsos-Reid +0.1
5. Harris-Decima -1.1
6. Angus-Reid Strategies -1.9

NATIONAL - NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY

1. Angus-Reid Strategies +0.7
2. Nanos Research +0.4
3. Harris-Decima -0.0
4. Léger Marketing -0.2
5. EKOS Research -1.5
6. Ipsos-Reid -2.3

NATIONAL - GREEN PARTY

1. Harris-Decima +2.1
2. EKOS Research +1.3
3. Ipsos-Reid -1.1
4. Nanos Research -1.2
5. Angus-Reid Strategies -2.2
6. Léger Marketing -2.6

ONTARIO - CONSERVATIVE PARTY

1. Angus-Reid Strategies +3.2
2. Ipsos-Red +1.6
3. Harris-Decima -1.0
4. Léger Marketing -1.4
5. Nanos Research -1.6
6. EKOS Research -1.7

ONTARIO - LIBERAL PARTY

1. Léger Marketing +5.0
2. Nanos Research +2.6
3. EKOS Research +2.1
4. Ipsos-Reid +0.8
5. Angus-Reid Strategies -2.5
6. Harris-Decima -2.6

ONTARIO - NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY

1. Harris-Decima +0.4
2. Angus-Reid Strategies -0.4
3. Nanos Research -0.7
4. Léger Marketing -1.2
5. Ipsos-Reid / EKOS Research -2.3

ONTARIO - GREEN PARTY

1. Harris-Decima +2.2
2. EKOS Research +1.9
3. Nanos Research +0.6
4. Ipsos-Reid -0.5
5. Léger Marketing -1.8
6. Angus-Reid Strategies -2.0

QUEBEC - CONSERVATIVE PARTY

1. Ipsos-Reid +1.6
2. EKOS Research +0.7
3. Nanos Research +0.2
4. Angus-Reid Strategies -0.2
5. Harris-Decima -2.0
6. Léger Marketing -3.3

QUEBEC - LIBERAL PARTY

1. Nanos Research +5.2
2. Léger Marketing +3.0
3. Harris-Decima +0.4
4. Ipsos-Reid +0.1
5. Angus-Reid Strategies -1.3
6. EKOS Research -4.7

QUEBEC - NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY

1. EKOS Research +0.3
2. Nanos Research +0.2
3. Ipsos-Reid -0.0
4. Léger Marketing -0.3
5. Angus-Reid Strategies -1.1
6. Harris-Decima -2.3

QUEBEC - BLOC QUÉBÉCOIS

1. Léger Marketing +3.8
2. Harris-Decima +3.0
3. Angus-Reid Strategies +2.7
4. Ipsos-Reid +2.3
5. EKOS Research +1.2
6. Nanos Research -1.5

QUEBEC - GREEN PARTY

1. EKOS Research +3.4
2. Ipsos-Reid -0.7
3. Harris-Decima -1.1
4. Angus-Reid Strategies -1.5
5. Léger Marketing -2.8
6. Nanos Research -2.9

3 comments:

  1. I don't understand the BQ tendency in Quebec. Five of the six pollsters seem to show favourable bias, one unfavourable; but the weight you attach to the unfavourable pollster (Nanos) does not seem to make up the balance.

    All this makes your calculations of over/under-polling seem very murky?

    What's going on? Is there something I'm missing, numerically?

    ReplyDelete
  2. I haven't gone through all the pollsters yet. I still have Strategic Counsel and CROP to do, and CROP is a significantly unfavourable pollster for the Bloc. Strategic Counsel less so, but their 22% rating back in February throws everything off.

    ReplyDelete

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