Saturday, June 20, 2009

New Poll: Ipsos-Reid

Ipsos-Reid released a new poll today, taken between June 16 and June 18 and involving 1,000 interviews. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%. This poll was taken in the midst of the election crisis and the Harper/Ignatieff negotiations. Here are the national results:

Liberals - 35%
Conservatives - 34%
New Democrats - 13%
Bloc Quebecois - 10%
Greens - 8%

This shows a modest Tory improvement, though we should note this result is very close to the last Ipsos-Reid poll released on June 4 which had the Liberals at 36%, the Tories at 33%, and the NDP at 12%. In any case, this poll demonstrates that an election would have been a risky venture for everyone - except the Bloc, which polled at 38% in Quebec, identical to the 2008 electoral result.

The poll was broken down into several categories, including urban/rural. The urban vote is 36% Liberal, 31% Conservative, and 14% New Democratic. I would have expected the NDP result to be higher. The rural vote is 44% Conservative, 29% Liberal, and 11% New Democrat.

Regionally, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 35% in British Columbia, and the Tories have a comfortable lead in Alberta and the Prairies. In Ontario, the result was very close, with 40% going to the Liberals and 38% going to the Conservatives. The NDP received a very small 13%. In Quebec, the Bloc remains on top with 38%, the Liberals second with 33%, and the Tories third with 16%. The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada at 37%, but the New Democrats are a close second with 34%.

I will update the projection with these results tomorrow, as I do not have the time today.


  1. What would the CROP poll out today do in Qubec in your opinion?

  2. We'll have to wait and see, it will no doubt give the Liberals a boost. I hadn'y seen it, so thanks for point it out.


COMMENT MODERATION POLICY - Please be respectful when commenting. If choosing to remain anonymous, please sign your comment with some sort of pseudonym to avoid confusion. Please do not use any derogatory terms for fellow commenters, parties, or politicians. Inflammatory and overly partisan comments will not be posted. PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION ON TOPIC.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.