Saturday, June 20, 2009

New Poll: Ipsos-Reid

Ipsos-Reid released a new poll today, taken between June 16 and June 18 and involving 1,000 interviews. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%. This poll was taken in the midst of the election crisis and the Harper/Ignatieff negotiations. Here are the national results:

Liberals - 35%
Conservatives - 34%
New Democrats - 13%
Bloc Quebecois - 10%
Greens - 8%

This shows a modest Tory improvement, though we should note this result is very close to the last Ipsos-Reid poll released on June 4 which had the Liberals at 36%, the Tories at 33%, and the NDP at 12%. In any case, this poll demonstrates that an election would have been a risky venture for everyone - except the Bloc, which polled at 38% in Quebec, identical to the 2008 electoral result.

The poll was broken down into several categories, including urban/rural. The urban vote is 36% Liberal, 31% Conservative, and 14% New Democratic. I would have expected the NDP result to be higher. The rural vote is 44% Conservative, 29% Liberal, and 11% New Democrat.

Regionally, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 35% in British Columbia, and the Tories have a comfortable lead in Alberta and the Prairies. In Ontario, the result was very close, with 40% going to the Liberals and 38% going to the Conservatives. The NDP received a very small 13%. In Quebec, the Bloc remains on top with 38%, the Liberals second with 33%, and the Tories third with 16%. The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada at 37%, but the New Democrats are a close second with 34%.

I will update the projection with these results tomorrow, as I do not have the time today.