Wednesday, June 10, 2009

New Poll: Strategic Counsel

Strategic Counsel released a new poll yesterday, for CTV. The poll was taken between June 3 and June 7, and involved 1,003 interviews.

Here are some of the stories that came out during this period:

- Natural Resources Minister Lisa Raitt and the documents she left behind at CTV.
- TD Bank forecasts Canada to go $170 billion into debt over the next five years.
- Minister Raitt's resignation is refused, and an aide resigns instead.
- Liberals and Conservative reject the Bloc proposal to impose Bill 101 on federally regulated institutions in Quebec.
- Jobless rate in Canada will reach 8.4%.
- Michael Ignatieff makes an important speech in Quebec.
- Conservatives move to remove the "faint hope" parole clause.
- Unemployment rate reachs 11-year high.

June 7th was a Sunday, so it was pretty quiet. Now that some context has been provided, here are the national results:

Liberals - 34%
Conservatives - 30%
New Democrats - 16%
Greens - 11%
Bloc Quebecois - 9%


Liberals - 44%
Conservatives - 35%
Greens - 11%
New Democrats - 10%


Bloc Quebecois - 37%
Liberals - 35%
Greens - 11%
Conservatives - 9%
New Democrats - 8%

This was a very good poll for the Liberals. They have a national lead beyond the margin of error, a significant lead in Ontario, and are within striking distance of the Bloc in Quebec. This poll would've given the Liberals 65 seats in Ontario, 11 more than they are currently projected to have. They would also win 24 in Quebec, three more than they are projected to have.

This is a bad poll for the Conservatives, as 30% is their 2004 result, as is the 9% in Quebec (translating to no seats). The 35% in Ontario is their 2006 result, which isn't catastrophic but would make holding onto power very difficult, as they would only win 35 seats.

The NDP had a good national result but very bad results in Ontario and Quebec, while the Greens had stellar results in the two major provinces. The Bloc can content itself with 37%, but anything lower than that is very bad news for them.

The short-term projection has changed, with the Liberals gaining six seats and the Conservatives losing six. The Bloc, NDP, and Greens remain unchanged. The Liberals pick up 0.2 points, but the Conservatives lose a full percentage point in the national vote. The Greens and NDP pick up about half a point each.

The long-term projection has not changed, with seats staying the way they are. But, the gap between the Tories and Liberals nationally has widened, with the Conservatives dropping 0.1 points to 32.7% while the Liberals remain steady at 33.3%. The Greens gain 0.1 points nationally, and gain 0.1 points each in Ontario and Quebec. The Liberals and NDP trade 0.1 points in Ontario to the benefit of the Grits, and both the Tories and NDP lose 0.1 points in Quebec.

The Liberals need to start breaking away in the regional polling for them to move into a position to form government. The Tory block of almost 70 seats west of Ontario is difficult to overcome, but if the Liberals continue to poll in the 40s in Ontario and high 30s in Quebec, this could be done. The dip in Atlantic support we've seen recently is costing the Liberals a few precious seats in what would be a very, very close election.


  1. Do you know if the polls are run on any kind of schedule, or do they just come out as they do?

    I ask because I get the sense that there may have been a breaking point in the last two days. I am often too partisan for my own good, but the revusion over Raitt has been of a qualitatively higher level than the incremental tendencies at play since the new year.

    By the way, as I'm sure you've seen already, there's a Harris-Decima poll just out: 35-31 nationally, apparent movement in Ontario, no information yet about Quebec.

  2. PS. Again, though, the dates for H-D are May 25-June 8.

    Watch June 9-10 as the key period, I think.

    If it doesn't move, we can probably consider the 35-30 Lib/Con split nationally a very stable equilibrium.

  3. I hadn't seen the Harris-Decima poll yet, thanks. I'll add it to the projection tonight or tomorrow, as I am too busy with other things this afternoon.

    To answer your question, they do seem to have a general schedule. But, since they are paid for by the various media outlets, their release and start and end dates might not be dictated by the polling firms themselves. Strategic Counsel tends to be between the 5th and 10th of every month, Ipsos-Reid every first week, or sometimes last week, of the month, Nanos tends to be the beginning of the month, and Harris-Decima tends to be within the first 10 days of the month.

    Angus-Reid doesn't seem to have a regular schedule, while EKOS is scheduled to release new polls every Thursday with the CBC.


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