Saturday, June 6, 2009

New Polls: Nanos and Ipsos-Reid

Two new polls were released today. The Nanos Research poll involved 1,001 interviews and was taken between May 26 and June 1. The Ipsos-Reid poll involved 1,018 interviews and was taken between June 2 and June 4.

During the Nanos poll, the biggest news was the $50 billion deficit. It made top headlines from the 27th to the 29th. From the 30th to the 1st, the "tapes" comment about Ignatieff was made by Harper, Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre made the "tar baby" comment, and Layton announced he didn't want an election this summer. During the Ipsos-Reid poll, the biggest news was Natural Resources Minister Lisa Raitt leaving behind government documents at CTV. From these stories, one would not expect strong polling from the Conservatives.

Here are the national results, Nanos first and Ipsos-Reid second:

Liberals - 37.2% / 36%
Conservatives - 31.8% / 33%
New Democrats - 15.7% / 12%
Bloc Quebecois - 8.0% / 9%
Greens - 7.4% / 9%

For the details of both polls, you can take a look at the bottom of the page.

This last Ipsos-Reid poll would result in 130 seats for the Liberals, 113 for the Conservatives, 51 for the Bloc Quebecois, and 14 for the New Democrats.

The short-term projection has changed. The national vote is as follows, with the difference from last time in brackets:

Liberals - 34.5% (+0.8)
Conservatives - 32.6% (+1.1)
New Democrats - 14.8% (-0.6)
Bloc Quebecois - 8.7% (-0.2)
Greens - 8.4% (-1.1)

The short-term seat projection has changed as well:

Liberals - 121 (+1)
Conservatives - 118
Bloc Quebecois - 48 (-1)
New Democrats - 20 (-1)
Greens - 1 (+1)

The long-term projection has changed a little as well. The Conservatives are up to 121 seats while the Bloc Quebecois has dropped by one to 49. The Conservative seat came in British Columbia, where the Liberals lost one. They made good that last with a gain in Quebec at the hands of the Bloc.

Nationally, the Liberals have widened the gap between them and the Tories, gaining 0.3 points while the Conservatives have lost 0.1. The New Democrats have dropped 0.1 points, as have the Bloc. Regionally, there weren't any huge moves, no party losing or gaining more than 0.2 points.

These two polls are good for the Liberals, especially the Nanos poll. The 5.4 lead they had in that poll over the Conservatives is the biggest we've seen since an EKOS poll in early April. Both polls were bad for the Conservatives, particularly the 8% result the Tories had in Quebec in the Ipsos-Reid poll. The NDP fared better in the Nanos poll, but 12% in the Ipsos-Reid poll would be disastrous.

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