Thursday, June 25, 2009

Projection Update

With an election impossible until the fall, and with EKOS seemingly having a regular arrangement with the CBC for weekly polls every Thursday, I will be updating the projection only once per week, on Thursdays. Throughout the week I will still report on new polls and post other interesting tidbits, but projection updates will only be done on a weekly basis.

Two polls have been added to the projection. The first is by Angus-Reid, taken between June 17 and June 18 and involving 1,005 interviews. The national result:

Conservatives - 32%
Liberals - 31%
New Democrats - 18%
Bloc Quebecois - 11%
Greens - 7%

This poll translates into 121 Conservative MPs, 101 Liberals, 53 Bloc Quebecois MPs, and 33 NDP seats. One of the questions asked in this poll was who would be best to handle the economy. Stephen Harper was first with 34%, followed by Michael Ignatieff at 20% and Jack Layton at 10%. The Liberals had a very strong result in the Prairies in this poll (39%, just below the Tories at 43%). The Conservatives took a small lead in Ontario (37% to 35%), and the NDP ranked first in Atlantic Canada with 34%, just ahead of the Conservatives at 33%. The Bloc had a strong result in Quebec with 42%.

The second poll is from EKOS Research, taken between June 17 and June 23 and involving 3,505 interviews. The national result:

Conservatives - 34.8%
Liberals - 32.6%
New Democrats - 14.3%
Greens - 9.3%
Bloc Quebecois - 9.0%

This poll translates into seat totals of 126 Conservatives, 112 Liberals, 47 Bloc Quebecois, 22 New Democrats, and one Green.

This marks two polls putting the Tories slightly ahead of the Liberals - a significant change from the last few months. In the EKOS breakdown, the Conservatives led in most demographics - males, females, 25-44 year olds, 45-64 year olds, those over 65, those with a high school education or less, those with a college education, and in the cities of Vancouver, Calgary, and Ottawa. The Liberals led among those younger than 25, those with a university education, and in the city of Toronto. The Bloc led in Montreal.

The Liberals have not managed to recover from their slide at the end of the last EKOS poll. This shows that Ignatieff was wise to avoid an election, but it also might show that he was unwise to threaten one in the first place. In any case, the volatility of the voting public is clear, and it would seem to be necessary to go to an election with solid justification rather than a simple desire to replace the government. And while the NDP had an excellent result with Angus-Reid, this EKOS poll is very dangerous for them - 14% in Ontario, less than 8% in Quebec, and less than 20% in British Columbia.

The short-term projection has changed significantly. The Conservatives have gained ten seats and the NDP three, while the Liberals have dropped 13. The Conservatives have gained 1.2 points nationally, while the Bloc has gained 0.4 and the NDP 0.2. The Liberals have lost 1.0 points and the Greens 0.6.

The long-term projection has changed as well. The Conservatives have gained 0.2 points and the New Democrats and Bloc Quebecois have gained 0.1 points each. The Liberals have lost 0.2 points and the Greens 0.1. The NDP has gained one seat to reach 22 while the Liberals have lost one, and stand at 120. The Tories lost one seat in the Prairies but gained another in Ontario. The Liberals lost a seat in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, but gained one in the Prairies. Finally, the NDP made their seat gain in Atlantic Canada, where recent polling numbers are showing great gains for them.

Regionally, the Liberals have gained 0.3 points in British Columbia and 0.8 points in the Prairies. They've lost 0.4 points in Ontario and 0.7 in Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives have gained 0.4 points in Ontario but have lost 0.4 in the Prairies. The NDP has gained 0.7 points in Atlantic Canada and lost 0.4 points in British Columbia. Other movements are less than 0.3 points.

So! Things remain incredibly close, but for the first time in a very long time the worst news in recent polling is for the Liberals. They have work to do to get themselves back in the lead.