Saturday, June 6, 2009

Liberals Lead in Every Demographic

Behind the national and regional numbers of the most recent Ipsos-Reid poll, the results show something very significant: the Liberals are beating the Conservatives in every demographic.

Nationally, the poll put the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives 36% to 33%. A three point lead is not huge when margins of error are 3.1%, but people get too caught up in the "margin of error". Yes, it does mean that the two parties could be tied, but it also means the gap could be six points instead of three. So let's put that aside for the moment.

The Ipsos-Reid poll divided up the results by age and sex, and in every category the Liberals were ahead.

Among 18-34 year olds, the Liberals had 31% to the Conservative 28%. In the previous Ipsos-Reid poll, where the Tories had a lead over the Liberals (35% to 33% nationally), the margin was only 30% to 29% in this age group.

Among 35-54 year olds, the Liberals have a 35% to 33% lead. That is a huge swing from Ipsos-Reid's last poll at the end of May, when the Tories had a significant 37% to 32% lead in this age group.

This change of fortune continues in the 55+ age group, where the Liberals now have a 41% to 36% lead. At the end of May, the Conservatives were ahead here 39% to 36%.

While before males were split on the two parties at 34% apiece, the Liberals are now ahead 37% to 34%. While at the end of May Ipsos-Reid had women preferring the Conservatives 37% to 31%, that has now swung to the Liberals where they lead 34% to 31%.

That the national lead in Ipsos-Reid polling has swung from the Conservatives to the Liberals is important enough. But that every demographic has moved from the Conservatives to the Liberals is a far more significant fact. If the Liberals can beat the Conservatives in any demographic group, they have a chance to beat them in every part of the country.


  1. The word incremental, as Nanos called the gradual Liberal rise, seems to be the crucial one here.

    Do you have a sense that the rise has been essentially linear since the New Year? Sub-linear? More than linear?

  2. When you look at the trendlines, it does seem to be pretty steady. However, for the month of May it seems like the Liberals were underperforming.


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