Monday, October 15, 2012

B.C. NDP still in control

A new poll by Angus-Reid for CTV shows that the B.C. New Democrats still enjoy a massive lead over the B.C. Liberals. But with the B.C. Conservatives in free-fall, the Liberals may no longer be in danger of being outflanked on the right.
The poll shows that the New Democrats picked up three points since Angus-Reid's last poll of Sept. 10-11, and lead with 49% support. The Liberals gained one point to reach 26% while the Conservatives were down three points to 16%.

The B.C. Greens were down one point to 7% while 2% of respondents said they would vote for another party or independent candidate.

While none of these shifts in support appear to be statistically significant, this poll does fall into line with an emerging trend in favour of the B.C. Liberals. They seem to have moved away from the Conservatives, whose numbers are looking very weak.

The New Democrats lead throughout British Columbia, with 57% on Vancouver Island, 54% in the North, 47% in Vancouver, and 43% in the Interior. The Liberals are second with 29% in Vancouver, 26% in the Interior, 22% in the North, and 21% on Vancouver Island. The Conservatives are really only a factor in the Interior, where they have 22% support.

With these numbers, the B.C. New Democrats would likely win 71 seats and form a majority government. The B.C. Liberals would win 11 seats, two independents would be elected, and the B.C. Conservatives would win one seat.

While the Conservatives haven't taken the kind of hit in support that cannot be regained, the numbers for leader John Cummins are especially problematic for them.

Adrian Dix was seen as the best person to be Premier by 30% of British Columbians, up two points since September. Christy Clark was down one point to only 14%, while Cummins was down three points to 6%. If we take out the "none of the aboves" and undecideds, we see that Cummins is in an especially bad position: Dix gets 58%, Clark gets 27%, and Cummins gets only 12%.
The biggest problem is Cummins's approval rating. It stands at only 16%, equal to his party's support. But that represents a drop of six points since December. His disapproval rating has ballooned to 56%, up 11 points. That means that Cummins's net rating has gotten worse by 17 points, a huge change in just one month. Undoubtedly, the dissent within his own party and how he has dealt with it have hurt him considerably.

That doesn't mean Clark is out of the woods: her approval rating was down two points to 26% and her disapproval rating was up three to 65%. Dix held relatively steady: approval up one point to 46% and disapproval down one to 37%, a net improvement.

This is not a horrible poll for the B.C. Liberals, but they seem to be making their gains by default. Christy Clark's personal numbers haven't improved, though John Cummins's have gotten much worse. This would seem to suggest that Clark and the Liberals will be able to recuperate a lot of their lost support from the Conservatives in a campaign - but with the New Democrats at almost 1 in 2 support and Dix's personal numbers being so rosy, the discomfiture of Cummins is unlikely to save Clark alone.

27 comments:

  1. I think at least one of the independent MLAs is very likely to lose. Simpson was elected as a New Democrat and left during the carole james imbroglio - the party doesn't want him back since he's regarded as a very loose cannon - and i expect the NDP to easily beat him if he runs again as an independent

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    1. The model is still basic - when I launch the new projections for B.C. there will be more attention paid to these sorts of details.

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    2. I've heard Simpsons is pretty well regarded in his riding. I dunno - we'll see what happens in May.

      BTW Eric - I don't know how closely you follow BC politics, but FYI the BC Conservatives' only MLA (who was elected as a BC Liberal) has left the BC Cons and is now sitting as an independent.

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    3. Yes, I did see that. With the election looming, I've been following BC more than I usually do.

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    4. Bob Simpson is very well regarded. In an election like this one it won't be close so "traditional" NDP voters will not feel the need to vote NDP to keep the Liberals out. I suspect many liberals in his riding will vote for Simpson believing he will be a better MLA than another NDP backbencher.

      Vicki Huntington may have a more difficult time being re-elected in Delta. Although I think similar dynamics apply to her as well.

      If I were to bet my money would be on Simpson being re-elected and Huntington losing.

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    5. Vicki Huntington has a lock in Delta South.

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    6. I too think Huntington is the more likely one to be re-elected. She was elected outright as an independent and so that status is easier to maintain.

      Simpson on the other hand ... there may be many BCNDPers who are still sore about his exit and their candidate will almost certainly run hard against him. And besides, such an optimistic outlook for the BCNDP will drive more of their voters to turn out, not less -- much like the bandwagon effect that helped the federal NDP once they proved they could overtake the federal Liberals.

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    7. The reason I think Huntington may have a tough time at re-election is her low visibility. I'm sure her profile is larger in Delta but, I watch politics closely and have found her to be nearly invisible.

      Bob Simpson is a former BC Liberal. I think he has strong bi-partisan support in his neck of the woods. As I mentioned before he is well known and well liked in the Cariboo.

      A BCNDP surge may drive more Dippers to the polls or it could cause most voters to tune out and wait for the inevitable results.

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  2. Saw Clark yesterday on Global's West Block.

    Came across quite well on the bullying thing. Still that won't get her a win !!

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    1. She's been very vocal against bullying for a long time. She supported the "Pink Shirt Day" campaign very strongly as a radio host.

      http://www.pinkshirtday.ca/get-involved/top-seven-ways-to-support-cknws-pink-shirt-day/

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    2. I wasn't knocking her Ryan. She came across very well on this issue.

      At the same time it won't get her the win !!

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    3. Oh I realize. I thought I'd share some more about her advocacy on the issue. It's an important issue in this day and age.

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  3. So now the Liberals have swatted that pesky Conservative fly, or rather it swatted itself, they only have get say 49 or 50 per cent support to beat the NDP next spring and retain government.
    Good luck with that.
    By the way Eric, did you see the latest Nanos federal poll showing the Libs over the NDP by more than two percent. Wowsers. That sure has the CPC supporters' tails in a knot apparently, considering some of the responses to news stories carrying the poll.

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    1. The regional breakdowns make no sense, Cons down marginally, NDP up in Quebec and Prairies, Libs up in Ont and hugely up in BC. Does anyone truly believe that the Libs have doubled their support in BC? Twenty percent to 40 percent exposes this as an outlier. Nanos needs to go back and take another run at this to confirm or debunk these numbers.

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    2. If the Conservatives fall back to 2009 levels then the we only need to win back 5% of the vote from the NDP. That's hardly a herculean task.

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  4. Could be real Lib support but every party that has a leadership campaign gets a bump. The problem for the LP is still huge.

    1) No corporate money and a weak history of individual giving.
    2) Can't seem to find policy positions in the middle any more.
    3) Nanos poll shows Quebec does not support the Federalism "uber alles" Trudeau position.
    4) Can't answer the existential question, "why do we need a Liberal Party anyway?

    Doug Little

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    1. What does this have to do with this article?

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  5. Real Breaking News

    Dalton McGuinty has just resigned as Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.

    There will be a leadership contest and conference

    6 PM Toronto time

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  6. Meanwhile, in another provincial race... Dalton McGuinty just resigned.

    http://ca.news.yahoo.com/ontario-premier-dalton-mcguinty-resigns-prorogues-legislature-224232639.html

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    1. Yes. Lots of people think that means he's running for the leadership. I don't, partly because he said so himself.

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  7. I guess its time to dust off the Ontario model...

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  8. Mustel also recently released their Sept. BC poll with the following results:

    NDP - 45%
    Lib - 32%
    Con - 18%
    Grn - 4%

    http://www.mustelgroup.com/images/voter_intentions.jpg

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    1. Really? The Greens are truly doing that badly?

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    2. Charles Harrison17 October, 2012 16:01

      I found that link rather interesting.

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  9. Charles Harrison17 October, 2012 15:46

    Cummins doesn't have a chance. His numbers are too low to give him one.

    Clark has a chance at a strong opposition if she works at it, but at the moment she's too low.

    Dix is going to govern with 60 plus seats no matter what.

    The Greens are too below normal (~12-13%) to win a first seat, which I believe is their provincial goal.

    This poll shows a lot of stories which add up to a strong NDP and a whole bunch of weak other parties.

    No offense to the Liberals, but they've been governing too long.

    Every poll tells multiple stories, and this one's show a strong NDP, which, given the current state, is quite truthful.

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  10. I voted Green in all of the last 3 BC provincial elections, but voting NDP in 2013.

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  11. Both the Greens and Conservatives are endorsing Vicki Huntington in Delta South. I wonder how that might affect the prediction for her riding?

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