A new poll by Angus-Reid for CTV shows that the B.C. New Democrats still enjoy a massive lead over the B.C. Liberals. But with the B.C. Conservatives in free-fall, the Liberals may no longer be in danger of being outflanked on the right.
The B.C. Greens were down one point to 7% while 2% of respondents said they would vote for another party or independent candidate.
While none of these shifts in support appear to be statistically significant, this poll does fall into line with an emerging trend in favour of the B.C. Liberals. They seem to have moved away from the Conservatives, whose numbers are looking very weak.
The New Democrats lead throughout British Columbia, with 57% on Vancouver Island, 54% in the North, 47% in Vancouver, and 43% in the Interior. The Liberals are second with 29% in Vancouver, 26% in the Interior, 22% in the North, and 21% on Vancouver Island. The Conservatives are really only a factor in the Interior, where they have 22% support.
While the Conservatives haven't taken the kind of hit in support that cannot be regained, the numbers for leader John Cummins are especially problematic for them.
Adrian Dix was seen as the best person to be Premier by 30% of British Columbians, up two points since September. Christy Clark was down one point to only 14%, while Cummins was down three points to 6%. If we take out the "none of the aboves" and undecideds, we see that Cummins is in an especially bad position: Dix gets 58%, Clark gets 27%, and Cummins gets only 12%.
That doesn't mean Clark is out of the woods: her approval rating was down two points to 26% and her disapproval rating was up three to 65%. Dix held relatively steady: approval up one point to 46% and disapproval down one to 37%, a net improvement.
This is not a horrible poll for the B.C. Liberals, but they seem to be making their gains by default. Christy Clark's personal numbers haven't improved, though John Cummins's have gotten much worse. This would seem to suggest that Clark and the Liberals will be able to recuperate a lot of their lost support from the Conservatives in a campaign - but with the New Democrats at almost 1 in 2 support and Dix's personal numbers being so rosy, the discomfiture of Cummins is unlikely to save Clark alone.