Thursday, November 8, 2012

October 2012 federal polling averages

October was a quiet polling month, at least on this side of the border. Only two national and one provincial (Quebec) polls were conducted in October, down quite a bit from the eight polls that had been done during the month of September. Though the monthly averages are not drawing from as large of a sample as is usually the case, here they are for the sake of continuity.
The Conservatives averaged 32% in the month of October, down 1.5 points from their average result in September. The New Democrats were down 1.1 points to 30.2%, while the Liberals were up six points to 28.3%.

The Bloc Québécois averaged 5.4% support and the Greens 3.5%, and an average of 0.5% of respondents said they would vote for another party.

Regionally, the Tories had the edge in Alberta and Ontario while the New Democrats were ahead in Quebec and the Prairies. The Liberals were in front in Atlantic Canada and British Columbia.

This represents a huge jump in support for the Liberals nationwide, but also in most parts of the country as well. This is in large part due to the big number the party put up in October's Nanos poll, but is there anything we can discern from the trends across both polls that were conducted this month?
Not particularly, at least compared to September. Both Nanos and Forum were in the field in both months, but they had the Tories and NDP heading in different directions. Nanos saw a small uptick in Conservative support while Forum saw a drop, and Forum recorded an NDP gain and Nanos a slip. They both agreed, however, that the Liberals were gaining - by an average of 3.8 points.

If we look at the previous month in which both Nanos and Forum were in the field, we see some clearer trends. Since July, the Conservatives have held relatively steady while the New Democrats dropped an averaged of 2.7 points. The Liberals made large gains in both polls since July.
But compared to September, the October numbers knock the Conservatives down 24 seats to 128 on the 338-seat map. The New Democrats would win 115 seats, up six since September, while the Liberals would win 92 (up 29).

The Bloc would win only two seats (down 11) and the Greens would win one.

Approval ratings
The poor performances of the Conservatives in British Columbia (due in large part to the Liberals) and in the Prairies (due to the NDP) makes it very difficult for the party to win anything but a bare plurality of seats. The New Democrats would need to make up some ground in Ontario in order to move ahead of the Tories, but a Liberal gain in the province is more efficient at whittling down the Conservative number.

With only two polls in the field in October, it is impossible to determine if some of the wilder results (particularly in British Columbia) are outliers or not. It does seem that the Liberals are eating into the support of both the Conservatives and the New Democrats, and it is difficult to separate that from the on-going leadership race. I suspect that we will continue to see some strange fluctuations until the next leader is chosen.

48 comments:

  1. I'll hazard a guess that the Liberal rise is due to Justin ??

    Thoughts ?

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    Replies
    1. Charles Harrison08 November, 2012 15:33

      Who else?

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    2. Which is kind of a sad commentary but Yes !

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    3. Which is kind of a happy commentary but Yes ! Liberals are back!!

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    4. Looking forward to a Liberal sweep of Quebec in 2015.

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    5. You predict a sweep based on the Liberals being behind in the polls?
      That's...well, it's optimistic, if absolutely nothing else.

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    6. And it's not going to happen. The Liberals will succeed in doing only one thing in 2015 - keeping Harper in power. What these polls really show is that a NDP-Liberal merger prevents this.

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    7. I think we may have seen the end of Harper majorities. If the case, and if Harper wins a minority in 2015, you can expect him to retire as he has no desire to lead another minority. With no one in the CPC capable and with clean hands to lead the party, the government will fall. And, the CPC coalition could fracture, and would need to rebuild - which could take many, many years.

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  2. Dear Owner/Publisher of 308.

    I just wanted to say thank you for your dedication to political polling over the last number of years.

    I check your site frequently during the week. I find your information on polls to be insightful, accurate, and very interesting.

    Keep up the good work! Your dedication benefits all of us political junkies.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you! That's greatly appreciated.

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    2. Ditto here.

      Your approach seems to have been vindicated by the success of Nate Silver in calling every state to within an incredibly small margin in the presidential election.

      Guy Smiley
      Of course, I'm sure you can only dream of having that amount of polling data to work with, as well as only to have to call 6 relatively large states as opposed to 308 small ridings.

      Keep up the good work.

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  3. 2 Liberals in Alberta? Sounds a little fishy... What ridings? Edmonton Centre? Calgary Centre?

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    1. Calgary McCall and Edmonton McDougall. Consider that, at 18.4%, the Liberals would almost double the 9.3% of the election.

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    2. Aren't those provincial districts? Ahem.

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    3. No, those are the new proposed federal districts.

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    4. Right, makes sense, forgot about redist. I see that McDougall is more Liberal and less Conservative than old Edmonton Centre, and McCall is more Liberal than old Calgary NE. So, there is a benefit from redistribution. Nevertheless, Edmonton McDougall will need to consolidate progressive vote though, I think, for this to happen. The Trudeau effect could be especially strong in McCall, with the immigrant population. See if there's any staying power to the Kenny-effect. Doubt it.

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    5. I wonder if the current MPs for Edmonton Centre and Calgary Northeast will challenge these proposed boundaries as they could potentially lose their jobs in the next election?

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    6. Jason Kenney has no effect whatsoever. Just wait until those immigrants hear about his social-conservative beliefs.

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  4. Or Trudeau-immigrant vote in Calgary Northeast?

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  5. Charles Harrison08 November, 2012 14:46

    Trudeau-as-Liberal-leader average?

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  6. Charles Harrison08 November, 2012 15:27

    Could you show us a riding map of the results? It would help a lot.

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  7. These sort of results make me think that minority parliaments may be the new normal. That said, I think voters often 'park their vote' when a party is in power. Majority parliaments, I think even in the three party era, are the norm.

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    1. You're probably right. At least in the absence of the Bloc taking 50 seats.

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    2. I have a hard time imagining that we will continue to see regular majority parliaments if we are moving into a legitimate 3-party system as compared to our previous 2.5-party system.

      That said, I think we are fairly clearly a major inflection point in Canadian political history, and it's hard to predict where things will settle back down.

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    3. Minority Parliaments have been fairly common since the 1920's. 13 minority governments were elected between 1921 and 2011 encompassing 28 elections.

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    4. Actually, we could now see coalition majority governments such as an NDP-LPC coalition or a CPC-LPC coalition.

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    5. Or maybe a possible but unlikely grand coalition between the CPC and NDP!

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    6. While nothing precludes a majority coalition government it is interesting to note that such governments are exceedingly rare. From the 13 minority parliaments elected since 1921 none has resulted in a coalition. The only national coalition to ever emerge resulted during the majority government of Sir Robert Borden. Provincially, they have been equally rare with the BC Coalition of 1941-52 and the Saskatchewan coalition of 1999.

      I think the reason why parties choose minority government no better demonstrated than the current situation in Ontario. Opposition parties are enticed by holding the ability to call an election while governing parties are unwilling to share the benefits of power.

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  8. I'm starting to understand why we are again getting inundated by these "Canada's Action Plan" commercials in prime time TV.

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    1. Anon 10:52

      I was wondering about that too but in light of the numbers on here I think you may have hit the nail on the head !!

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    2. Eric

      Sorry for seeming stupid but with a 338 seat House doesn't that mean to get a majority you must have at least 170 seats ?

      When I add 115 and 92 I get 207 ?? Should be enough ??

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    3. Yes but they are now backfiring. Now the public knows they have spent $200 million total on them, they are not happy, since they are being told the cupboard is bare.

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    4. And yet the Tories are trying to push through more funding for ads.

      So is the public wise or not or is this our version of "Citizens United" ??

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    5. Maybe the next government should create some concrete rules limiting the amount of partisan ads ran before an election campaign, so we will no longer get these personal and fabricated attack ads? Besides, the Economic Action Plan is already over, since we got out of the recession. Now it's just a fancy name for the annual Conservative budget.

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    6. So, now we know how the CBC is getting those money after the Conservative cuts, from those government "Economic Action Plan" ads. I guess this Tory government is not as fiscally prudent as they claim to be.

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  9. I see the Guelph CPC campaign manager has fled to the middle east. LOL there is something stinky there.

    More ads please maybe no one will notice.

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  10. So true. To add something on top of it, if the government is airing ads on private TV networks, which I presume they are, then that's equivalent to handing government money to big corporations. Since they are spending 200 million on them, I suppose not only are the Tories giving businesses tax cuts, but they are also giving them welfare!

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    1. MD,

      There is a difference between a corporate subsidy (welfare) and buying advertising air time. For example, the CBC receives $1 billion per annum in a subsidy as well as monies to air governmental advertising. By contrast private broadcasters are only eligible for advertising revenue. Both the CBC and private media must comply with CRTC guidelines but, whereas, the CBC is given a subsidy to meet CRTC regulations private media are not.

      It is also important to remember the Government has a legitimate need to inform Canadians on a wide range of subjects (whether the current matter under discussion is one of them is a subjective choice) to be effective both public and private media are important distribution centres.

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    2. However William,

      What is the point of the advertising besides propaganda. What informational value did they carry. Its very hypocritical from a government that announced they will stop providing physical social insurance number cards to save a measly 10 million dollars.

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    3. Well Jarry,

      Part of the reason people/ governments/ corporations advertise is to inform people of services/ products they provide and promote them.

      Since, you seem concerned about governmental expenditures perhaps you would be willing to eliminate the CBC subsidy?

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  11. "OECD says Canada to lead G7 in growth for next 50 years" Daily, thinking Canadians recognize our current leadership is doing reasonably well for Canada, by any measure, but especially when measured against the rest of the world.Canada is not the hell-hole of Conservative policies from which the Liberals and NDP speak.
    Canada still has some growing pains to overcome but the future is looking a bit better.

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    1. I wouldn't take forecasts that look 50 years into the future too seriously. Surely, they couldn't take into account the Martian invasion of 2034.

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    2. Environics today says Harper is the least trusted leader in the Americas.

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  12. The reason the Grits are in trouble and politics has, at least temporarily, polarized is due to the destriction of middle income jobs "Steelworker" for example and its replacement by McJobs. Polarizing people by rich or poor and hollowing out the middle leads to polarized politics.

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  13. The Tories have 36% support from decided voters versus 29% for the NDP and 22% for the Liberals in the Abacus Data poll, conducted in November 2012. Can Not wait for the blade straight and steel true of the CPC to do battle in the election of 2015!

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    1. LOL factor Trudeau in that poll and Harper is wiped out.

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  14. The whole world is in an economic mess in case you haven't noticed. Canada's CPC Gov't weathering the storm as well or better than anyone else.

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  15. Don't worry Harper and the CPC will help Canada join the ranks of the more indebted nations in record time. 26 billion dollar deficit for this year 5 billion more then anticipated. I remember there use to be complaints during Paul Martins time about the surplus being underestimated. I guess those were the nostaligic times. Also the in 2014 there has to be the requisite spending spree to buy as many votes as possible for 2015. Housing bubbles bursting in Canada is just beginning.

    I wonder how long it will take for if Pierre Trudeaus record on debt to GDP ratio to be better Harpers.

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