Thursday, September 26, 2013

NS Liberals move solidly into majority territory

The Corporate Research Associates daily tracking poll for The Chronicle Herald shows little movement as the campaign in Nova Scotia progresses. And the only small movement it does show is away from the incumbent government and the third place Tories and towards the Liberals of Stephen McNeil.

I wrote about the state of the race and the election projection in this week's article for The Globe and Mail, and I invite you to check it out.

Since the last major update on this site, the projection has swung rather significantly in the Liberals' favour. The party is now projected to take 50.3% of the vote, up 4.8 points from where the Liberals stood with polling up to Sept. 18. That gives them a 23-point lead over the New Democrats, and even their likely low range still puts them 21 points up on the NDP. Stretched to its extreme, the Liberals would still win by 10 points even if the polls fall on their face as they have in recent elections.

Click to magnify
The New Democrats have slipped 1.1 points to 27.3%, while the Progressive Conservatives have dropped 3.1 points to 20.1%. They seem to have bit hit hardest by the gains McNeil has made during the campaign so far.

The Liberals are projected to win between 30 and 38 seats with these numbers, up from between 25 and 34 from Sept. 18. That puts them comfortably in majority territory. Their absolute minimum at this stage is 25 seats - not enough to win a majority, but enough to win the election.

Darrell Dexter's New Democrats have dropped to between 13 and 16 seats from between 14 and 21, and their maximum range (23 seats) now puts them below the Liberals. CRA polling does not support the potential for an NDP upset if the election were held today.

The PCs have dropped from between 3 and 7 seats to between 3 and 6, but more importantly their most likely result has dropped by three seats to only four. The Liberals picked those up, along with another seat from the NDP.

The Greens have dropped 0.9 points to 1.3%, and are expected to take between 0.9% and 1.3% of the vote. This is after taking into account their slate of only 16 candidates out of a possible 51. Because they have not managed a full slate, the likelihood of the polls over-estimating the Greens is amplified significantly, even if the tracking polls give them just 2% of the vote.
The most recent set of numbers from CRA, running from Sept. 18-24, is almost an entirely new sample from the analysis of last week (the polls overlap only for Sept. 18). They show no statistically significant movement over the last week, suggesting that the campaign is relatively stable. But the trends are pointing in the direction of the Liberals: they have picked up three points to hit 51% support, the highest they have been in CRA polling for as long as I can recall. The New Democrats have slipped one point to 27%, while the Progressive Conservatives have dropped three points to 20%.

On leadership, McNeil gets 37% (+2) on who would make the best premier, followed by Dexter at 20% and Jamie Baillie of the Tories at 15%. That is a drop of four points, just flirting with the margin of error. The campaign has not been going very well for Baillie, though the reviews of last night's debate were relatively positive for the PC leader. Nevertheless, McNeil's leadership edge is rather crushing. The recent election misses in B.C. and Alberta, for example, showed nothing like this.

Each dot in the chart below represents a result from a poll that was in the field on that particular day. As CRA's polling spans a week, we cannot know for certain when movement is taking place. But this sort of tracking gives an idea.
As you can see, the campaign so far has been pretty steady. The Liberals started the campaign at 48% before dropping to 47% and then upticking to 49% and now 51% support. Meanwhile, the NDP has wobbled between 27% and 29%, while the PCs have been pretty steadily sinking, from 23% to 21% and now 20%.

The consensus opinion on the debate last night was that all did pretty well, but Dexter and Baillie performed better than McNeil. But it doesn't seem like these were the kinds of performances that should single-handily change the game. We won't start seeing the effect of the debate until the weekend, when CRA's sample starts leaning post-debate. It will be interesting to see if things shift, because at this stage of the race the Liberals are going to win in a landslide.

20 comments:

  1. One can only hope this presages a national movement?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Replies
    1. Afraid not boys-a poll in the Globe and Mail today has the Tories stable and the Dippers and Grits in decline.

      The way things are going in Nova Scotia the NDP could well end up in third place. In any case the Liberals are a small "c" conservative party with big business interests. So the amount of "change" one could expect from a Liberal government is minimal.

      Delete
    2. Actually, the Nanos poll mentioned in the Globe doesn't show that. It shows that people who would 'consider' voting for the LPC or NDP is down from a similar June poll. The poll itself doesn't show anything about actual voting intentions, and Nanos is quoted as saying those intentions are stable.

      In Nova Scotia, now sure if the NDP is in danger of dropping to third. The CRA polling from this morning (published after this post was put up) has the PCs down to just 17% and the NDP stable at 29%.

      Delete
    3. The second paragraph should start as "In Nova Scotia, not sure...", of course.

      Delete
    4. "The poll itself doesn't show anything about actual voting intentions, and Nanos is quoted as saying those intentions are stable."

      Thanks for that Eric. Sometimes it is necessary to tear aside the wishful blinkers.

      Thanks.

      Delete
    5. No, actually in this case it was a misleading headline.

      Delete
    6. No Eric it is bede's deliberate spin that matters !

      "Afraid not boys-a poll in the Globe and Mail today has the Tories stable and the Dippers and Grits in decline."

      Headline didn't say that !!

      Delete
    7. The headline literally said that.

      Delete
    8. I sent you the link.

      How about posting that link here ?

      Delete
    9. Sure, here it is:

      http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/support-falling-for-liberals-and-ndp-holding-steady-for-tories-poll/article14539717

      "Support falling for Liberals and NDP, holding steady for Tories: poll"

      Delete
    10. Support falling for Liberals and NDP, holding steady for Tories: poll

      The Conservatives, meanwhile, started off behind the Liberals and the New Democrats in terms of being an option for voters – and they are still behind. But they are holding their own.

      So no real movement out there

      Delete
    11. Peter,

      The only person trying to spin fact into fiction is you. Please don't accuse people unless you have proof-since, you have none I expect an apology! However, I doubt you have the ability to apologise.

      If you were a true student of Canadian politics or someone who understands history you would know that a win for the Nova Scotia Liberals presages Conservative government in Ottawa! This is the usual course of events in Canada. When the Tories are in power in Ottawa Liberal governments inhabit most provincial capitals. When the Grits are governing Canada Conservative governments dominate provincial capitals.

      Delete
  3. And noe after the Del Mastro affair does anyone out there think another CPC majority??

    My vote is NO !!

    And of course the senate Wallin/Duffy etc isn't over by a long shot yet !!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Peter,

      The Tories are well on their way to a second consecutive majority. With more seats in the West and Ontario for the 41st election the Tories chances have improved considerably since, 2011.

      Delete
    2. Folks, I suggest you carry on your partisan debates on the comment boards of CBC, G&M or NatPost. That's where I usually do so. ;)

      Dom

      Delete
  4. Are you giving Baillie any bonus in Cumberland South in your model?

    ReplyDelete

COMMENT MODERATION POLICY - Please be respectful when commenting. If choosing to remain anonymous, please sign your comment with some sort of pseudonym to avoid confusion. Please do not use any derogatory terms for fellow commenters, parties, or politicians. Inflammatory and overly partisan comments will not be posted. PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION ON TOPIC.