Friday, October 25, 2013

When a poll is and isn't an outlier

As I'm a little under the weather today, a short post to highlight my latest article for The Globe and Mail, on the topic of outlier polls.

With a series of polls out in the last week giving the Conservatives everything from 26% to 32%, and the Liberals from 32% all the way to 40% support, the piece is somewhat timely. EKOS was the first out of the gate and had some unusual results, making it look like an outlier poll. But the new numbers from Nanos and Forum go a long way to back them, as the updated federal polling averages can attest to.

The Globe article is available to Globe Unlimited subscribers only. If you like reading this sort of deep polling analysis (which, if you'll allow me to say, you'll have a hard time finding anywhere else except right here), please consider getting a subscription. In the end, the work I'm lucky enough to do for places like the Globe help subsidize my work on this site.

Speaking of which, a few days ago was the fifth anniversary of the launch of, which began all the way back in 2008. I just wanted to give a big thank you to all of my readers, who have made this project possible. And thanks also to those of you that I have interacted with in the comments section over the years, on Twitter, and in real life, who help make this strange job of mine so fulfilling. I'll do my best to keep your interest for the next five years. It helps that those coming years are setting up to be pretty darn interesting.