Monday, November 17, 2008

Riding Projections - Capitale Nationale

These are the final projections for the region of the Capitale Nationale.

Charlesbourg - Michel Pigeon (PLQ)
Charlevoix - Pauline Marois (PQ)
Chauveau - Sarah Perreault (PLQ)
Jean-Lesage - André Drolet (PLQ)
La Peltrie - France Hamel (PLQ)
Louis-Hébert - Sam Hamad (PLQ)
Montmorency - Raymond Bernier (PLQ)
Portneuf - Michel Matte (PLQ)
Vanier - Patrick Huot (PLQ)

You can click on the image to see them in greater detail and the comparison of projections to results are below.

Charlesbourg was won by the PLQ as projected with 42.4% of the vote, slightly more than the projected 38.0%.

Pauline Marois won Charlevoix with 52.2% of the vote, more than the projected 44.8%.

Gérard Deltell won in Chauveau, which was counter to my projection. His 43.6% result differs greatly from my 32.0% projection.

The PLQ won in Jean-Lesage as projected, the 41.7% result close to the 39.1% projection.

Éric Caire defied the projection and won in La Peltrie with 38.8%, more than the projected 30.3%.

Sam Hamad won in Louis-Hébert as projected, with 48.8% of the vote instead of the projected 41.8%.

The PLQ won in Montmorency as expected, with 36.5% of the vote instead of 33.9%.

Portneuf went to the PLQ as projected, with 39.6% of the vote. I projected 39.6% of the vote as well. A perfect match!

Finally, Vanier went Liberal as expected, with 38.3% of the vote instead of the projected 34.7%.

Result: 7 for 9 (78%)

1 comment:

  1. Just as a follow-up to comments below about candidate nominations. With 4 days to go to register candidates, the director general reports this many candidate nominations:

    Liberal: 98
    Parti quebecois: 64
    ADQ: 41
    Quebec Solidaire: 19
    Green: 8
    Parti independantiste: 4

    We can expect the first 3 parties to nominate 125 candidates, and Quebec Solidaire to come pretty close, but they will have to hurry up with getting the paperwork done. The Greens, which fielded 108 candidates last time, are going to be way below that this year-- their website only lists the names of 75 candidates. Only contesting 60% of the seats will hurt their overall vote percentage.

    The early election call seems to have really helped give the Liberals a head start on organization and campaigning, while the small parties are really having trouble finding candidates in a hurry.


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