Saturday, November 15, 2008

Today's Polls - 11/15

To make things easier, I am now including regional projections into my riding projection calculations. So, here you can see CROP's regional breakdown as well as national.

The seat projection remains the same, but the PLQ is close to being bumped up to 61 and the ADQ is close to sinking to 12. The popular vote projection changed by the following amounts:

PVQ +0.31
PLQ +0.30
QS +0.04
OTH +0.03
ADQ -0.33
PQ -0.36

In terms of seat possibilities, the high/low is now:

PLQ = 39 to 71 seats (+1)
PQ = 39 to 65 seats (-1)
ADQ = 1 to 27 seats (-1)

There is no change in the individual riding projections, aside from a few points here and there. Their pages will be updated as I add new projections.

You might be wondering why my electoral projections don't swing around as much as others. That is because my model is conservative when it comes to new polls and takes into account old polls and electoral performances.