Saturday, November 15, 2008

Today's Polls - 11/15

To make things easier, I am now including regional projections into my riding projection calculations. So, here you can see CROP's regional breakdown as well as national.

The seat projection remains the same, but the PLQ is close to being bumped up to 61 and the ADQ is close to sinking to 12. The popular vote projection changed by the following amounts:

PVQ +0.31
PLQ +0.30
QS +0.04
OTH +0.03
ADQ -0.33
PQ -0.36

In terms of seat possibilities, the high/low is now:

PLQ = 39 to 71 seats (+1)
PQ = 39 to 65 seats (-1)
ADQ = 1 to 27 seats (-1)

There is no change in the individual riding projections, aside from a few points here and there. Their pages will be updated as I add new projections.

You might be wondering why my electoral projections don't swing around as much as others. That is because my model is conservative when it comes to new polls and takes into account old polls and electoral performances.


  1. Thanks for compiling this, Eric. It makes for some interesting reading.

    I don't believe that the best predictor of how a population voted was how they voted last time-- think about how dramatically the ADQ's support has shifted in the last four elections: 4% in 1994, 12% in 1998, 18% in 2003, 31% in 2007.

    Quebec polls are more accurate than they were in the past. In 1994 and 1998 they overestimated PQ support by as much as 10%, mostly because they didn't account for much PQ support among people who don't turn out to vote. With the Green Party and Quebec Solidaire on the scene, a lot of that mirage support goes to them. (Notice in 2007, PVQ and QS were polling at 10-14% in the polls but only got 7.5%) Between the three main parties, I think the polling is reasonably accurate.

  2. I don't think the polling is inaccurate, but I need trends rather than individual polls to make things swing more violently.

  3. Fair enough. The only reason I brought up the point was because the last time a poll had the ADQ above 17% was seven months ago, so I was surprised you had them above 17%.
    Still, that might be justified since QS and PVQ will almost certainly get fewer votes than they are polling. They have weak voter loyalty and they are completely disorganized. So far,combined, they have only handed in nomination papers for 18 candidates. If their percentages go down on voting day, the other parties will get a bounce of 1 or 2 percent by default.

  4. Also, don't forget that the margin of error is usually around 3%. The lowest we've seen the ADQ at has been 14%, which still makes my projection possible.

    But remember, this is more about how people will vote on December 8 than how they will vote today.


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