Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Today's Polls - 11/25



So many polls today. They haven't all been entered into the model, but many have and the national polls certainly have. I will be updating the individual riding pages with these new results over the next few days.

We have two national polls, one from Léger Marketing (with 3,070 polled) and one from CROP (1001 polled). We have regional polls from Léger Marketing for all regions of Quebec, and we have large regional polls from CROP. Lastly, we have a riding poll in Sherbrooke.

The seat projection has changed dramatically. The PLQ is up six seats to 67, and thus a majority. The PQ is up two seats from 52 to 54. The ADQ is down from twelve seats to four. Which four? Rivière-du-Loup, Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, Beauce-Nord, and Lotbinière.

The popular vote has also changed:

PLQ +1.68
QS +0.20
OTH -0.06
PVQ -0.06
PQ -0.09
ADQ -1.67

The high-low seat projection has also changed:

PLQ = 42 to 75 seats (+3 seats)
PQ = 39 to 65 seats (unchanged)
ADQ = 1 to 25 seats (-2 seats)

If you're wondering how the ADQ could still win 25 seats, that is in the case where the polls are wrong, the ADQ nets around 18% and has it concentrated in the most beneficial way.

I'll be continuously updating the riding pages over the next few days, so be sure to check them out.

1 comment:

  1. This is very close to what the result will look like IMHO

    ReplyDelete

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