Friday, November 14, 2008

Today's Poll



This poll was released on November 12 by Environics, but it is a bit of an old poll. The polling took place between September 24 and October 21, and so its weight is not very high in my calculation. Nevertheless, it did change the popular vote totals:

PLQ +0.24
PQ +0.22
OTH -0.03
QS -0.12
PVQ -0.14
ADQ -0.17

The highest and lowest possible seat projections are now the following:

PLQ - 39 to 70 seats
PQ - 39 to 66 seats
ADQ - 1 to 28 seats

The most significant seat calculation change goes to the ADQ who have dropped from 13.15 seats to 12.94. They have been consistently dropping. My model works under the assumption that people vote differently from what they tell pollsters and that the best indication of how people will vote is how they voted in the last election. I have trouble believing the ADQ can go from 31% to 14% in less than two years, and my model reflects that by giving them 17.82% of the vote. But, if more polls show the ADQ as in the low teens, their projected total will reduce as well. You can argue with a handful of polls but not a torrent.

None of the individual riding projections changed hands, so I won't be updating them immediately but they will be updated in the next few days.

UPDATE: The Montérégie ridings page has been updated.

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