Monday, November 3, 2008

November 2008 Numbers

With each passing month, the poll weighting has to be updated. So, here are the new November 2008 numbers. No changes for the seat projection, but the popular vote projection has changed.

The PLQ has risen from 38.83% to 39.12%, the PQ from 32.78% to 33.09%, and the ADQ from 17.96% to 18.11%. The losers are the PVQ and QS, who have lost 0.15 and 0.03 points respectively.

Though the PLQ has bumped up its popular support to more than 39%, it has actually lost 0.1 points in the seat projection calculation. This is because the PQ has bumped up as well, and a stronger PQ (whose vote is more heavily-concentrated in the seat-rich regions) means more seats.