Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Today's Poll

Finally, we have a new poll in the midst of this election. It comes from Léger Marketing and appeared in Le Journal de Montréal, The Gazette, and on TVA.

With these new numbers, the PQ has moved up to 52 seats and the ADQ down to 13, while the PLQ remains steady at 60.

In terms of the popular vote, the biggest winner is the PQ who is up 0.65%. The PVQ is next with +0.26%, and the PLQ with +0.08%. The ADQ and QS have fallen, the former by 0.12% and the latter by 0.25%.

It also worth noting that in two of the scenarios the PLQ do form a majority, with between 64 and 69 seats. In its best-case-scenario the PQ can form government with 65 seats, but is short of a majority by four in its next-best-case-scenario. Even in its worst-case-scenario, however, the PQ still improves with 39 seats. And the ADQ, even if it is very lucky, is still projected to only win at most 28 seats. In a worst-case-scenario, Mario Dumont will be the sole MNA.

As will always be the case, you can go to the individual riding pages to see the new projections based on this new poll. When posting new polling numbers, I will also make mention of any riding changes. In this case, there are no changes in my projections.

Also as always, you can click on the image for more detail.