Sunday, April 22, 2012

Forum shows closing gap in last hours

Note: An analysis of ThreeHundredEight's final projection will be posted Monday morning. 

Three final polls saw the light of day on this, the last day of the Alberta campaign. Forum's was reported in The Globe and Mail this morning, while Angus-Reid released theirs less than an hour ago. It was taken on Apr. 20-21, however, whereas the very last poll of the campaign, again by Forum, was conducted today. It shows a very close race.
Forum puts Wildrose at 38% support to 36% for the Progressive Conservatives, 12% for the NDP, 10% for the Liberals, 3% for the Alberta Party, and 1% for other parties.

This is quite a change from their polling conducted yesterday. Forum has Wildrose down three points while the Tories are up four. The gap has narrowed to two points from nine, according to these numbers.

Forum polled 1,949 Albertans via their IVR method, giving the survey a sampling margin of error of +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The big sea change that Forum has is a gain by the Tories in Edmonton. In their polling completed yesterday, the PCs were at 31% to 30% for Wildrose. The numbers are now 37% to 25% with the Tories well ahead. The gap is also smaller in Calgary (from 12 points to six) and in the rest of Alberta (from 16 points to nine), but it is in Edmonton where things have shifted the most.

Is Forum capturing last minute second thoughts? They are the only firm to have done any polling today. Weekend polling always comes with some risk and as Forum now stands alone going into voting day (all other polls put Wildrose at 41% with the Tories in the mid-to-low 30s), and they will either sink or swim. If they have it right, then we are in for a long night tomorrow.

28 comments:

  1. Wow, if those Forum numbers actually come to fruition, there are going to be some embarrassed pollsters tomorrow.

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  2. Your numbers do not make any sense the Forum poll is WR41-PC32 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/wildrose-party-set-for-sweeping-majority-latest-poll-shows/article2410297/?from=sec431

    Angus Ried is also WR41-PC32
    http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/44522/wildrose-party-maintains-strong-lead-heading-into-alberta-election/

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    Replies
    1. That first Forum poll you mentioned was reported today, conducted yesterday.

      The Forum poll mentioned in this article was first reported by me, and was conducted today.

      Delete
    2. Eric

      is there any link that we can read about the latest Forum poll. The only place info about this poll is on your site.

      Did you commission it?

      Your math does not seem to be accurate as even including the latest unreported Forum poll the lowest the WRA has gotten is 38 and a 35 on the oldest poll... if 12 40-46 with median of 41 polls with with an old small forum 35.5 and latest large Fourm poll 38 results in 38.4 then your weighting is suspect.


      If you are anywhere close to being correct on this election your system is spetacular, but I would be drafting the "what went wrong" piece if I were you.

      Delete
    3. That is rich coming from you, who constantly goes on about how we have to add this or that many points to a poll because they under-estimated the Conservatives in the last election.

      As I've stated multiple times, and as I write in my final projection analysis, there is an adjustment made to the aggregate to estimate for the difference in voting intentions and voting results.

      I did not commission the poll. The release is available on Forum's website.

      Forum's poll gets a good deal of weight because it is the newest set of numbers.

      Delete
  3. Very interesting. This will be a close race and a lot of people proclaiming the Wild Rose would win, might be in for a surprise.

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  4. I think if WR somehow loses D. Smith will regret her positions on re-opening the downtown airport issue and possibly stopping the proposed RAM museum here in Edmonton. From a political vantage point I thought it strange she would be so openly hostile to Edmonton. She should have remained ambiguous and vague. If the Forum numbers are accurate WR might be lucky to win 1-2 seats here in the Capital region. With the numbers tightening elsewhere that would be enough for the PCs.

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  5. Wildrose Supporter (Former PC Supporter)23 April, 2012 00:58

    AHHHH!

    Eric, you're going to kill me!

    When will you update the riding projections and the main call?

    Go Wildrose!
    You can do it!

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    Replies
    1. PC Supporter (Former Wildrose Supporter)23 April, 2012 13:21

      I think if the PC and Wildrose are tied in support, then the PCs will likely win more seats because their support is more concentrated in Edmonton and Calgary, rather than Wildrose, who will waste support in rural regions, making their votes less efficient.

      Go PC!
      Stop the Wildrose nanny state!("Danibucks", massive tax hikes to get rid of deficit in 1 year)
      True blue will win the day!

      Delete
  6. Looks like the undecideds are paying attention now and siding with the Tories.

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    Replies
    1. JH, that's exactly what I was thinking. Haven't many polls throughout this campaign reported a sizable proportion of undecideds? Too bad Forum's reports don't show this info; it would help verify your hypothesis.

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  7. I also suspect that once the advance polls opened the polling companies are no longer getting good data.

    Wildrose supporters are older and more sure of what they are voting for and why, thus conservative types aren't going to be swayed at the last minute.
    They vote early.

    Once they've voted they're no longer in the game and if they get a robocall or a polling call they hang up without participating.

    Same thing was seen in the last Federal election. Nobody expected a majority in the last few days, because the polls showed it wouldn't happen.
    People also pointed to the high advance poll turnout as evidence that people were motivated against Harper.
    Wrong.
    Conservatives had their minds made up and decided to vote early and get it done with. Once they voted they were out of the game and thus, the Tory poll reflected that.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's assuming that your conjecture about conservatives voting early and then not taking part in further polls is true.

      Where is your -evidence- -- you know, some actual statistics -- behind your claims that conservatives vote early, and that this was the cause of high advance polling turnout in 2011? Just declaring "conservatives vote early, high advance poll turnout in 2011, ergo majority not forecasted because all those early voters must have been conservatives and thus the data there was flawed" doesn't make it true, and that also does not mean that the case is necessarily the same here.

      Delete
  8. »As an undecided up until now WR has failed to show me any leadership skills or the ability to represent our province to others as the best candidate. PC will have my vote but I do hope for a minority.

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  9. Looks like a tight race, I hope for Alberta's sake the PC take it, Im pro Public Health Care! Go PC Go

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  10. Received calls from Redford, Sherman (where did he get my number, other than the phone book) and Mason. Hung up on them all.
    How many people called by pollsters in the last few days have lied. I know I did. Same when I was asked will I vote tomorrow, said no. They never asked if I had voted in advance polls.

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  11. Your regional seat projections don't add up. You're showing 29 ridings in Edmonton and 27 in Calgary? That's incorrect.

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    Replies
    1. No, those are the number of ridings in Edmonton and Calgary's CMA.

      Delete
  12. If these numbers play out this will have the dippers holding the balance of power. This will be awful! Let us hope for some floor crossing love to take place.

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    Replies
    1. social democrats provide good government

      Delete
  13. Eric,

    Keep your eye on Calgary-Buffalo tonight, the only true inner-city riding in Calgary. I can confirm from living here that incumbent Liberal MLA Kent Hehr is very popular in the community and has plenty of support across the political spectrum; including from myself as something of a 'Red Tory'.

    This will be a somewhat rare two-way race between Wildrose and the Liberals, as the PC candidate is very weak (appointed by Redford late in the process after he lost the nomination in Calgary-McCall; to the best of my knowledge he does not live in the riding).

    Kent's owns internal polling numbers are very strong, even if I do agree there should be a discount on it. I would be shocked if he came in behind the PC candidate though.

    http://www.kenthehr.com/2012/04/internal-poll-results-show-kent-hehr-the-only-candidate-who-can-beat-the-wildrose-locally/

    As something of a political junkie I've built some of my own model projections of my own in previous federal elections and usually done OK (high 280's sort of thing) and I don't envy your task of dealing with the 'Wildrose factor’ in this race given their very low levels of support in 2008, but I would say this riding is a great case of one which is going to provide poor results for you. I know Liberal support has dropped like a rock out in other areas of the city, especially out in the suburbs, but it seems to have held up fairly strong downtown. Every riding is unique, but Buffalo is something of an outlier in Calgary and is one of the few in the city where Wildrose ‘bozo comments’ will actually hurt them materially as it is home to most of the city’s gay community.

    I strongly suspect that if he wins, Hehr will be the only Liberal MLA standing in southern Alberta, perhaps the whole province.

    Just thought I would share my thoughts with you on this one. Keep up the good work.

    Cheers,
    Chris

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  14. The latest numbers I found on the www indicate WRP taking 30 rural/small city seats, this means they only need 14 between Calgary & Edmonton for a majority, WRP leads Calgary in every poll since they started the election, do the math it's a WRP majority however you want to spin it. PCs are in the final death throws and are grasping at anything even if it's made up polls. Albertans are tired of fiscal mismanagement for 5 years and nanny state ideologies. Redford is likely to even lose her own seat in Elbow.

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    Replies
    1. PC Supporter (Former Wildrose Supporter)23 April, 2012 13:15

      It does not matter if the Wildrose win. The progressives in the PC party will cross the floor to Wildrose and attempt to turn that party into a progressive party too. Besides, the PCs government is definitely not a nanny state, the Wildrose will be a nanny state by giving out "Danibucks", not to mention the massive tax hikes they will implement for their plan to get rid of the deficit in 1 year. PCs are true conservatives, Wildrose are just knockoffs.

      Delete
  15. I'll go with:

    Wildrose 49 (+45)
    Progressive Conservatives 33 (-33)
    New Democrats 5 (+3)
    Liberals 0 (-8)
    Alberta 0 (-1)

    ReplyDelete
  16. Well Eric, you ended up with PC and WR ending up in the extreme seat ranges (PC at the upper end of their range, and WR a little below what you stated was the bottom of their range). The dippers doubled and the Liberals survived to fight another day. Interesting election, with some really wild swings. A pollsters nightmeare.
    JKennethY

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  17. This just proves that polls are meaningless.

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  18. Yet another black eye for the polling industry. Seems no one was within margin of error. Use of some methodologies highly questionable such as IVR.

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