Friday, April 20, 2012

Wildrose poised for slim majority

With only days remaining before Monday's vote, the final polls of the campaign are being released. Léger Marketing, ThinkHQ, Campaign Research, and Abacus Data have all put out their final numbers and they all agree: while Wildrose's lead has been diminished over the latter half of the campaign, they are still in the lead.

Wildrose is projected to take 39.6% of the vote, down only 0.1 point since the Apr. 17 projection. The Progressive Conservatives have slipped 0.5 points to 34.8%, putting the gap between the two parties at just under five points.

The four most recent polls put the gap at between six and ten points, but as explained in that Apr. 17 analysis the model makes adjustments for expected discrepancies between voting intentions and voting behaviour (i.e., turnout).

The Liberals are up 0.8 points to 11.5%, putting them ahead of the New Democrats, who are unchanged at 11%. The Alberta Party is up 0.3 points since Apr. 17 to 2.1%.

At these levels of support, Wildrose is projected to win 45 seats. That puts them just over the bar for a majority. The Tories have picked up one seat since Apr. 17 and are projected to win 37.

The New Democrats are unchanged at four seats, while the Liberals are back to being on track to win a single seat.

As the polls are lining up (none of the newest ones feature anything that could be considered an "outlier" result), the ranges have been reduced. Wildrose's likely vote haul now no longer overlaps with the PCs: they are projected to win between 38.1% and 41.1% compared to between 32.3% and 37.3% for the Tories. In other words, if an election were held today the Wildrose would certainly finish ahead of the PCs in the popular vote.

The Liberals (10% to 13%) and the NDP (9% to 13%) are bunched up closely together, making it difficult to determine who is most likely to finish in third. At this stage, however, the Liberals have the advantage.
At least in the vote. In terms of seats, the New Democrats range between two and eight while the Liberals remain mired at between zero and three seats. This means it is possible that the Liberals could sit third in the legislature, but the odds do not favour this result.

The seat ranges for Wildrose and the Tories overlap dramatically, due in large part to the huge number of ridings that are being decided by only a few percentage points. And with the polls still unsure as to where the Tories stand in Calgary and Wildrose in Edmonton (though the order seems rather clear, the closeness of the race is still difficult to determine) anything from a Wildrose majority to a PC majority, and everything in between, is possible with the polls where they are. However, the odds favour a Wildrose majority government, and are heavily stacked against one headed by Alison Redford.

Edmonton voting intentions
The race is becoming increasingly four-sided in Edmonton, as both the Liberals and New Democrats have made gains in the capital. Wildrose support has been stagnant in the city for some time, while the NDP has hit a bit of a plateau as well. But the Liberals have made a small comeback, primarily at the expense of the Tories.

Since Apr. 17, the PCs have dropped 3.6 points and one seat in Edmonton. They are projected to win 35.4% of the vote and 19 seats. Wildrose is steady at 26.6%, but the New Democrats are up 0.9 points to 17.2%. The Liberals made the biggest leap, jumping 2.6 points to 16.8%, putting one seat back into their column. The Alberta Party stands to get its best result in Edmonton with 2.9%, a gain of 0.3 points.

But the polls are not exactly showing a consensus in the city. While the PC (31.4% to 39.4%) and Liberal (13.8% to 19.8%) ranges are relatively narrow, Wildrose could take as much as 32.1% of the vote or as little as 21.1%. The NDP could take between 12.2% and 22.2%. Though something in between is most likely, this degree of uncertainty means the PCs could win between nine and 26 seats in Edmonton, while Wildrose could take between one and 15 and the NDP between two and seven.

Calgary is also unsettled. Wildrose has dropped 2.2 points but still leads with 42.3% support. The Tories trail with 35.7% (-0.9) while the Liberals sit at 11.8% (+0.8). The New Democrats are up 1.2 points to 7.3% and the Alberta Party is up 0.2 points to 2%. The range for the Tories is incredibly wide, however: they could take between 27.7% and 43.7% of the vote, giving them between one and 18 seats. They are projected to win eight to Wildrose's 19.

In the rest of the province, Wildrose is up 0.5 points to 47.8% but down two seats to 21, as the Tories have picked up 2.1 points to hit 33%. The New Democrats are down 0.7 points to 9.7% and the Liberals are down 0.8 points to 6.6%.
EDIT: An earlier graphic mixed up the results of Abacus and Campaign Research. My apologies.

Provincially, the polls are all in general agreement. Wildrose scored 41% in the last three polls taken Apr. 17-19, while they were at 42% in Léger's poll taken Apr. 13-16.

Tory support is somewhat more uncertain, standing between 31% and 36%, though support for the Liberals (9% to 12%) and the NDP (10% to 13%) varies by no more than three, and in polls taken since Apr. 17 their results differ by no more than two points.

Regional results, though, are less certain. In Edmonton, the gap between the Tories and Wildrose is somewhere between two and seven points, while it ranges between three and 15 points in Calgary. Outside of the two cities, it is somewhere between 13 and 24 points. One can now see why my own projection ranges are so wide.

They all, however, put the Progressive Conservatives ahead in Edmonton and Wildrose ahead in Calgary and the rest of the province. They all give the Liberals (13%-19%) and the NDP (16%-22%) their best results in Edmonton, and show the two parties to be completely out of the race in Calgary and the rest of Alberta. No poll gives the two parties a combined score higher than 25% in Calgary or 17% outside the two cities (compared to a combined high of 38% in Edmonton in one survey).

They all also tend to show that Wildrose's momentum has stalled or has turned negative, while the Tories' slide has stopped or has even been reversed. If Angus-Reid or (more likely) Forum decide to do some polling today or tomorrow, we might get a more definitive idea of whether the gap is going to be tightening between now and Monday.

Note: A final projection will be posted either late on Sunday or early Monday. 

69 comments:

  1. I'm conducting a different kind of poll in Calgary-Klein. Two weeks ago, driving around our community, you could see lots of WR signs - easily a majority compared with the PCs. Today, I'd guess that only 1/3 of those signs are left. It's quite a striking change. With a lame PC candidate (I don't think he even qualifies as a "duck"...), it will be very interesting to see how this unfolds.

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  2. Interesting to see the race tighten in the closing days. What if the outcome were a minority government? With the NDP holding the balance of power?! That could make for a very different outcome than Alberta's ever seen.

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  3. I don't think a minority is a possibility - not in the months following the election.

    At least a handful of PCs would cross the floor, and voila. There's your majority.

    The NDP would never hold the balance of power in any minority government. The Wildrose would not cater to them, nor would the PCs (especially since they are likely going to punt Redford and take a turn for the hard right again as soon as this fiasco is over).

    A PC/NDP coalition would be the final death blow for the PCs, as it would solidfy them as a leftist party and hand the Wildrose many more centre-right voters. In Alberta, you win by goin to the right, not the left.

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    1. If it is a minority government Redford and the PCs have first kick at the can. So, It is quite likely that the PCS could offer plums to Wildrosers in order for them to cross the floor or resign. They need a new man in Asia after all!

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    2. A Conservative NDP coalition could never happen, not because the CONs wouldn't offer, but the NDs would never take it.

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    3. A minority government does not necessitate a coalition. Depending on the numbers abstentions could be just as useful.

      For example, in Nova Scotia between 1998-1999 and 2003-2009 there were 3 minority governments; none were formal coalitions or had mutually agreed policies a la Bob Rae and David Peterson in Ontario.

      Both federally with Jack Layton and provincially in Nova Scotia under Dexter the NDP has supported Conservative minority governments or; at the least not joined with other opposition parties to defeat them.

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  4. So any combination where the WR lose two seats leads to a minority government. Very interesting.

    It's strange to think that in an election that saw the rise of a far-right party, there is a distinct possibility that the center and center-left parties could have the most power in the Alberta legislature in a generation.

    Fascinating stuff.

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  5. Looks like it'll come down to the spreads in Edmonton and Calgary. If the PCs run up the seat count in Edmonton and manage to break even in Calgary they could pull it out. That would be crazy, but still possible.

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  6. The center does not factor in Alberta. NDP and Liberals are irrelevant.

    Its PC or WR. REDford is gone.

    That is all

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  7. Given Redford announced today that the PCs have nothing in common with a conservative right of center party there must be a lot of confused liberals in the province.

    How long after the election until they change their name to the Progressive Party of Alberta?

    Chris

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    1. Here is what I think. Although it may not be too obvious right now and given the volatility of the electorate and the expectations of Danielle Smith...the biggest loser in this race will be Redford...even if she manages to pull off a slim majority or hold on to power via a coalition with NDP's or Libs. She will be the Premier presiding over a much diminished party and her main opponent will be a party of disgruntled former PC'ers. She will no longer be able to claim any conservative credentials if she wants to differentiate herself from the Wildrosers because there is no way they are going to propose any policies or positions that are in anyway left leaning. She will have no choice in effect but to admit she is a liberal and her party is liberal and then the real war begins...which she will lose.

      After a few months...even though she may not be Premier...and despite the huge expectations...Danielle Smith will have taken her party from 4 seats to probably the strongest opposition Alberta has ever seen...which will bode well for her and her party. D. Smith is not going anywhere soon....but I see a VERY limited shelf life for Redford even if she manages to pull out a win.

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  8. Eric,

    I wonder if in future elections it would make sense to consider "momentum" going into the last few days of the election. I don't know if you've been following 538's coverage of the Republican election, but I noticed they're incorporating momentum as a variable for their models. It might have accounted for some of the discrepancy between the polling and the results in the last 3 federal elections.

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    1. I was thinking of doing a rough "momentum" calculation to include with the final projection, along with a look at what the polls predict without my adjustment.

      For the last federal election, though, it wouldn't have helped. The Conservative vote was pretty steady over the last few days in the polls, and the numbers for the Liberals and NDP were generally on mark. The Tories had no momentum going into the last days that could explain the discrepancy.

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  9. Hi Eric. By all reports turnout at advanced poll's at least in Calgary have been higher then normal to say the least. Given your election watching experience I am curious if you have any idea's whether this sort of phenomenon generally favors incumbent's or "up and comer's"? Particularly in such a hotly contested race as this one is.

    Ken.

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  10. I think the real ballot question in this election comes down to leadership...at least in this election.

    D.Smith has stood by controversial candidates and entered hostile territories where she has been heckled for unpopular positions and has not blinked or apologised once...even when up against a wildly popular mayor who claim's to be neutral in provincial politic's even though only a moron would think he is not.

    A.Redford from day 1 has flip-flopped on every promise she has made (i.e full health inquiry's and fixed election date's)...or qualified and couched them in lawyer backdoor exit's and trickery language. And in recent day's her campaign has disintegrated into playing the race card.

    Danielle Smith's leadership and campaign in the last day's of this election harken back to just after the crappy day's of the Getty years. She has alot of shade's of the vigorous early Ralph Klein...love him or hate him.

    Allison Redford and her campaign resembles more Paul Martin and the beginning of the end of the Liberal Party of Canada.

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  11. Danielle Smith will be the President of Alberta.Brian Mason will be the new Finance Minister. Raj Sherman will be finally committed (thank god :P)Oh and Christy Clark...ahem...I mean Allison Redford...will be trying a second time to become a citizen of South Africa...because people down there "get" her. Good luck Ally :)

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  12. I have been undecided, but leaning WR. So I sent a question to my candidates this week to finally decide who I would vote for. The WR candidate did not reply so I sent the same question to Smith. She did not reply either. If the WR candidate and leader will not even reply to a legimate question during a campaign when they are seeking my vote I doubt they will have time for me after the election. Given their non reponse I definately will not vote WR!

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    1. Please that's lame, during a campaign they stick to forums, debate and media, they get piles of letters and emails and you'll get the same experience from any of them. You sound as if your just trying to grind an ax against the WR.

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    2. What was the question?

      But seriously, they are kinda busy to be replying to individual emails.

      Chris

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    3. While I agree that individual politicians may not have time to reply to an e-mail-the campaign absolutely should! Most campaigns nowadays have a social-media coordinator. Very foolish of them not to, you've done the leg work and got in touch identifying yourself as a potential supporter.

      During the NDP leadership campaign I sent an e-mail to a candidate explaining that I was not a NDP supporter but, had found an error on the website relating to Scotland that should be corrected. Within 2/3 days I had a reply.

      You should send the campaign a second e-mail explaining why they did not get your vote.

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    4. Sorry that they dont have a dedicated staff of email answerers for you. Maybe you should have a little more patience or call them? Do you really expect a woman who plans to be premier to answer every single email? Come on.

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    5. juvanya:

      All parties have staff dedicated to answering e-mails, telephone calls etc...Canvassers, outreach workers social media experts etc...

      Anon April 20th sent an email to his local candidate and Smith and had no response. The fact he sent two e-mails to WR and got no reply speaks more about WR's ability to plan (and lets remember they conducted a faux election campaign last fall)as well as their organization. It could have been 5 words; "I will get back to you". Or "please look at our platform".

      No response indicates WR has no intention of having a more transparent or accountable government.

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  13. Interesting to see the perspectives. The "far right"comments are extremely rolling as the WR are clearly the centrists holding a majority of the publics opinion and all the other parties are to th far left. After all a centrists party is not defined by where there opponents are on the political spectrum but compared to the people they represent. With 70-80 percent of Alberta being conservative voters, clearly the new left pcs,
    Ins, ndp, AB party represent the rise of th far left with scary policies here in Alberta. I will be therefore voting for the ore moderate wildrose party.

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    1. "Moderate" and "centrist" have very different meanings.

      A "centrist" clings to the political centre in their current environment.

      A "moderate" is someone who is willing to compromise on their positions to get at least something done in a situation.

      Someone can be centrist while not being moderate and vice-versa.

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  14. Wildrose Supporter (Former PC Supporter)21 April, 2012 00:10

    Question for All:

    Assuming a minority government, is it the incumbent or the party with the most seats that gets first crack at forming the government?

    For example, if Redford wins 36 seats but WR wins 39, does Redford get the first chance to form the government? I recall that this came up in the Paul Martin election, but the Martin agreed that he would not attempt to form a government if the Tories had more seats. I've heard no similar statements from Mz. Redford.

    Anyone know what the actual rule is?

    Go Wildrose!
    Kick the Bums out!
    40 years is long enough!

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    1. Yes, the government going in to the election (in this case, the PCs) get the first shot at forming government - if they choose to take it. Often - as in the Paul Martin example you mentioned - the outgoing government doesn't even bother to try.

      My (dim!) recollection of my PoliSci classes is that in a case where the outgoing govt loses the election but tries to hang on, the Governor General (or the Lt Gov in a province) could even insist that the govt test itself with a confidence vote asap.

      (You may ask, "then how could S. Harper get away w/ proroging the House back in '08 with the Coalition?" Harper's govt *did* win a confidence vote or two on its Throne Speech *before* the financial update led to the coalition threat.)

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    2. Unless the Liberal/NDP get more than 10 seats and the cons do not have more seats than the WRA I think the point is moot.

      There will be the 3 or 4 rural elected Cons who would cross the floor to give the WRA a majority. They could argue that they are acting in the best interests of the voters who clearly rejected Liberal and NDP policies.

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    3. The rule is: Governments have the right to meet the House after an election. In order for a government to be replaced the previous one must resign. Only in the rarest and most grave of circumstances have the Monarch or Governor dismissed the government.

      By convention the Legislature is called within a short period of time after the election and the second bill debated is the Throne speech- a confidence matter. Usually a few weeks.

      This is one of the few times when the Crown has real decision making power. If Redford resigned before the House met and recommended Ted Morton as premier the LG would have no obligation to follow the advice. Conversely, he may decide he has no good reason to ignore the advice and appoint Morton. Once the ministry resigned, the LG may feel another party has the best opportunity to form government and appoint them. The Governor or Monarch can also play an important role in determining when the House is recalled. In a minority situation a couple months would be the maximum extent between the return of the writs and a Throne speech. We witnessed this in 2009 when the GG agreed to a six week prorogation.

      Finally, regarding Jason's point on prorogation. Harper had won a confidence vote but, equally important the Government had not lost a confidence vote-so there was no reason for it to resign.

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  15. This will likely be a major realignment election. I think the era of political dynasties is over in Alberta. Future elections would be competitively contested between a centrist party and a right-wing party.

    While Alberta is Canada's most right-wing province, there is a large segment of the population that is looking for a more moderate alternative. Perhaps the Red Tory flank of the PC party can rebrand itself and merge or absorb the Liberal and Alberta parties.

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    1. Wildrose Supporter (Former PC Supporter)21 April, 2012 12:02

      I'm sceptical.

      If Redford wins a majority, it's business as usual.

      Anything else, all the right-wing tories will cross the floor to WR and Smith will form the government. I doubt the Libs + NDP + Reford Tory/Liberals could form a government.

      So, in many cases, a vote for the PCs is as good as a vote for the WR.

      Go Wildrose!
      Kick the Bums Out!
      Down with the Nanny-State!

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    2. Until this election the voters of Alberta did not think they were voting for a centrist party. They were voting for the most right wing alternative that they had.

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    3. Many of us Albertans are not politically educated people.. A lot of us don't even know the meaning of "Left Wing" or "Right Wing". We just want to vote for the party that will stand up the most for us. Some of us here even think the NDP is more centrist than the Liberals. If we were voting for the most right wing alternative, then Wildrose would have formed government 8 years ago, and the Social Credits would never have lost power to the PCs 41 years ago.

      The reason why not a lot of us vote for Liberals or NDP is not because they are not right wing, it's because they have a lot of baggage in the province (Wheat Board, Canada's Flag, NEP, patriation of the Constitution, Long-Gun Registry, etc.), much like how the Liberals don't do so well in Quebec like they used to due to scandals.

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  16. I would not in the least be surprised to see a small PC majority.

    Lets face it Wildrose is way to far Right even for Alberta !

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    1. And PCs are too far left for Alberta. Get real

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    2. PCs are not too far left for Alberta. Albertans who voted Wildrose will regret their decision if they ever form government. A Wildrose government will do a lot of damage to Alberta every day they are in power. Wildrose is too far right for Alberta, that's the truth, face it. If you can't, then you will have to be dragged kicking and screaming while the rest of us move Alberta forward.

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  17. Hi Éric,
    I love your site, I just have one comment to make about your methodology. It doesn't look as though you factor in where parties are getting their votes from (example, PC voters moving WR). I think it's a problem (especially in this election) because I took a look at your Edmonton projections, and the WR don't vary much riding to riding.

    Take a look at these two (PC, Lib, NDP, WR):
    Edmonton Strathcona: 26-21-50-0 (2008) 17-11-47-23 (2012 proj.)
    Edmonton Whitemud: 59-34-5-0 (2008) 45-19-6-26 ((2012 proj.)

    I think it's very unlikely that the WR would get only 3% more in Whitemud than Strathcona because there is so much more PC vote to steal in Whitemud. So I think the WR are going to pick up a few more seats than you predict in Edmonton because their vote will be concentrated in formerly PC areas.

    Although perhaps this is a case of keeping your methodology scientific (you don't want to introduce something that you just felt was right), it might be possible to get numbers on this phenomenon from pollsters or past relationships between WR and PC vote correlations riding by riding.

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  18. For the first time in years we will elect a small majority govt with a strong opposition. For years we voted PC in droves to keep the ndp/libs away. This year we have a choice, so it will be a fun night of tears and cheers on Monday. We can't have a minority or the same thing will happen here as has happened in Ont. Dalton has given in to the ndp budget demands to stay in power.

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  19. Any idea on what the Undecided percentage is in these polls? I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Albertans remain undecided. It's a very confusing and conflicting election for voters. I happen to be in the social circles of "progressive" voters in Alberta, who would never have considered voting PC in the past. But things have changed, and most of them plan to vote PC this time to attempt to stave off a Wildrose victory.

    Also, are pollsters phoning cellphones these days?

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    1. Time was the undecided % was always included in poll reporting, now it's rare. But in a race like this, where there are real doubts about one party, election-day decisions can really make a difference.

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    2. I wish some of the polling data would explain if they have taken into account the possibility of WR/PC splitting the vote in ridings where a Liberal or NDP candidate has come a close second in the past. I think a lot of people are thinking of voting strategically in this election, which they might not SAY to a pollster, anyway.

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  20. I received many poll calls on my cellphone. If you compare the results of recent elections to the polls, I think it's pretty easy to conclude they are pretty accurate, whatever the last-minute undecideds.....decide.

    For that reason, I think it's pretty obvious that a WR victory is coming. Luckily, I believe, we have nothing to fear.

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  21. It's very interesting watching the national media and seeing/hearing the reports.

    Consensus is that this far away from the final result things are definitely shifting and that shift seems to be away from WR.

    Last thing I saw was Smith trying, very poorly, to deflect the anger about the ultra-right gender and social rights stuff some of her candidates are pushing !!

    No hard-nosed "It Ain't Gonna Happen" stuff but a wimpy "we don't believe" thing which nobody can believe !!

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  22. I am in complete despair. You can tell I live in Alberta lol! This election has been nothing less then heady and almost dream-like. For the first time in 4 decades we are on the verge of change. Basically hours away. And what happens? The predictable I would venture. The mainstream media comes out all barrels shooting replaying over and over again the poorly worded statement's by a couple of nincompoop candidates. The centrist's and left leaners decry all thing's conservative and see the end of the world. Allison Redford...the second most feeble Premier in the last 5 years get's a free ride in the last few days from a very cooperative media. Figures.

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  23. Much has been made of this election. Yes...in the confines of our uniquely so far rat-free province (a Canadiana trivia fact that is probably unknown to the rest of Canada but nonetheless we Albertan's are proud of)the populace here are particularly fired up and all of our eye's are directed towards Monday evening when the numbers roll in. But honestly...what irk's me the most is the National and a few international headlines. Toronto pundits have stuck their nose in. The political elite all across Canada are waxing poetic about what this election means to the whole country. The same pack of snobs that use us as an example of capitalistic excess or view us as environmental armagedon all the while taking the capital willingly to Ottawa to fund their services across the rest of Canada. Yes...I do agree this election is pivotal...mostly for us. Not the rest of Canada. Canada will still get their pound of flesh. Until the day when our province out of sheer frustration finally decides to seperate. And unlike Quebec...there will be no hair thin decision. And no bus loads of Canadian's asking us to reconsider. So be it.

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    1. If Alberta and Quebec one day realize that they could agree upon secession, its all over. ;)

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  24. I am so tired of Allison Redford and the television stations portraying Danielle Smith and her party as a bunch of "hayseed's".... "chewing on straw down by the crick" (sic) or a group of Klansmen bent on cleaning Alberta of everyone who is not white, gay or Liberal. Danielle Smith is hardly a racist, gay-hater or anything else the power's that be throw at her and the WR.

    Ken.

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  25. For those WR supporters blaming the media you are missing the point. If Smith had done the press conference on Tuesday instead of Friday rejecting intolerance nobody would be writing or speculating about a close finish (if that indeed happens-it might still be a WR blowout). To use the vocabulary of today's politics she 'lost control of the story' and only has herself to blame as this shifted the focus from the PC record to the WR. I'm now convinced if she had responded earlier there would be little suspense regarding the outcome.

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  26. It is too bad the eastern media and tv honchos were not as concerned about the re-election of Dalton as they are about our election in AB.
    Our biggest fear here is a minority, with the ndp/libs holding the balance of power by one or two seats. With Dalton caving to the ndp re his budget, it is sending a message here, don't let the ndp have any power. We will see tomorrow what happens.
    Lots of talk around that if the PCs do not get a huge majority, Redford will quit and appoint Ted Morton. Guess they have not paid attention that Morton will probably lose his seat.

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    1. I fully agree with and understand this fear...but I do not think it likely. As split down the middle as voters are conservative-wise I think most agree very few want NDP'ers or Liberals making decisions around here. I predict a lot of floor crosser's either to the conservative "lite"...or the basic conservative side of things. If the polls are all pretty close to the bone I put my money that this scenario will have PC'ers crossing the floor to the WR.

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    2. The difference is that over here, we're not paranoid about everyone who isn't a hardline conservative.

      We can live with some variety in our politicians. Why can't you?

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  27. I too am very dismayed at the media and the PC war room hitting the WR with blazing guns- everything thrown at them - 90% lies or a really biased slant. All of the stuff that has happened in the PC side ( such as PC candidate Rasheed making racist comments, PC candidate - former school principal- under ethics microscope for using school resources to campaign) never getting the 3 day headlines such Smiths candidates. Surprising that WR has done so swell with 2 major parties (PC and MEDIA) campaigning against her
    But Redford stated she would not represent all Albertans - she could not work with WR - that is disenfranchisement of a huge segment of the population. The disrespect for democratic principle is really troubling

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  28. It is hilarious that people think that there will be a great deal of change in Alberta after this election. There is barely any difference between the WR and PC parties, and since one of them will most likely win the election, there will be very little real change coming around in the next four or five years. In addition the LIB and NDP parties, though more different than the PCs and WR would likely not bring about any transformative change either if they were elected.

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  29. Forum just released a final poll that has Wildrose ahead 41-32 with the NDP riding to 13% and all the way up to 23% in Edmonton. I predict the NDP wins 7 seats including a surprise pick-up in Lethbridge West

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    1. Aside from that NDP boost in Edmonton, Forum's numbers are all within the norm so I don't expect major changes in the projection.

      A final projection will be posted before the end of the day today. I'm holding off to see if anyone else releases any last minute numbers. I heard rumblings of an Angus-Reid poll on Twitter.

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  30. Calgary Herald

    The Calgary Herald editorial board met with all five leaders of the political parties that have a sitting member in the legislature — the Alberta Party, the Alberta Liberal Party, the New Democratic Party, the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta and the Wildrose Party. But in terms of who stands a chance to form government, the choice is between Alison Redford’s PCs and Danielle Smith’s Wildrose.

    The editorial board, we believe, is a microcosm of the landscape we reflect. Like the Calgary and Alberta populace, we are split.

    For the first time in decades — possibly ever — the editorial board could not reach a consensus with regard to whom we should endorse, the Conservatives or the Wildrose.

    Despite holding a long, often impassioned but also circumspect discussion on Friday, we remained at an impasse. As a result, we are presenting the case both for the Progressive Conservative Party and for the Wildrose Party separately and urging Albertans to choose based on the issues that matter to them most when they head to the polls on Monday to determine who will govern this province for the next four years.

    http://www.calgaryherald.com/opinion/editorials/Editorial+Split+endorsement+Alberta+election+tough+decision/6494981/story.html

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    1. They can't choose between the two parties because there's no essential difference.

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    2. Not according to Redford herself. She stated that the PCs have almost nothing in common with the Wildrose and that she would be amenable to working with the NDP and Liberals.

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    3. I was kinda wondering. Went out this morning to pick up all the Sunday morning papers knowing the Sun would endorse the Wildrose party and fully expecting the Herald would endorse Redford. Quite the surprise they did not.

      Ken.

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    4. Chris, Redford can say what she wants... she's politicking and has to present the image of a distinction between her party and her main opponent, but in terms of policy (which is what matters) there isn't any significant difference.

      Delete
  31. If the Liberals had a real leader and a fiscal platform that didn't try and go out of its way to alienate the oil and gas sector, they might have been able to hit the PCs from the left while the Wildrose took them out from the right.

    Sherman is way too polarizing (no pun intended). You either love him or hate him, just way too many of the latter to win. Calling all the Wildrose party and voters Bigots also isn't helping him (some people do believe in Hell, go figure). I thought he didn't want any name calling in the election? Or was that only AT him?

    Us right of center types have nothing against government programs for those who really need them, but you shouldn't hand out cash and programs just because.

    Chris

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am glad you have concern for the less well off, however, you should also have concern for future generations.

      Wildrose and PCs policies regarding oil and gas rents are delusional. With oil at $100 they run a deficit. What happens if oil falls to $50? Don't think it won't happen either; oil was at $30 in 2003. Danielle Smith somehow thinks oil dividends would be wonderful. Brilliant of course, lets collect taxes then hire civil servants to process, only for more administrative costs to be incurred so we can rebate the tax payer through dividends.

      Anyone who does not endorse Norway's approach to finite resource development is in favour of impoverishing their children.

      Delete
  32. Hi Eric. Love your site! Best one going for all us election slash political junkies :) Can find almost nothing about it to pick at...EXCEPT one tiny little criticism. Any way you can make that part where we have to pick out the letter's to prove we are not a bot a bit easier to read lol? I find I am having to refresh quite a bit.Anyway...keep up the good work!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wildrose Supporter (Former PC Supporter)22 April, 2012 20:01

      @Eric,
      As always, love the site. However, I wonder if a "forum" type site might be better. You could set up a "federal" sub-forum, then one for each province or area you are covering. Also, would be easier for users to log in.
      Just a suggestion.
      Thank you again.

      Delete
  33. Good gosh! Giddy as a school girl I am!! (I apologize in advance to all feminists who might be reading this...although I doubt few girls actually come to this site. Actually...scratch that! Do not apologise in the least!! Particularly in a province where we are on the verge of electing a female premier or a female premier. Which I might add mostly men will have elected if it is Danielle Smith.

    What does tommorow have in store for us?

    Will it be Allison Redford? And her endless "After School" specials from the 1980's cautionary tale and government informing us the error of our ways and beseeching us to say no to drugs..drink...and normal life in general?

    Or will it be Danielle Smith? Who say's it is ok to live your life without the long arm of government mucking up your life and you are free as long as you live within the parameter's of civilized society?

    I can hear already the shrill voices of the left tommorow evening shrieking social and environmental armagedeon as the number's roll in reporting a Wildrose government. And I look forward to the "At Issue" panel on the CBC with Peter Mansbridge bringing up the rear navel gazing at what "this win means to the rest of Canada" lol!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't profess to personally know Danielle Smith but I have spoken to her 4 times in person, door knocked with her, and I have read much from others that do know her.

      Danielle Smith is NOT a token front woman for the Wildrose Party! She is an articulate, smart, policy wonk who got her position on pure merit.

      If women want to think how great it is that a woman will be Premier, I say "go for it" but this time, the fact that she is a female wasn't relevant. If you think she will cater to "women's" issues any more than a male politician would, I think you might be disappointed.

      Delete
    2. Wildrose Supporter (Former PC Supporter)23 April, 2012 00:12

      @Anonymous,

      Preach on, brother.

      Will we wake up on Tuesday still under the Nanny-State jackboot, or will the public revolt?

      Inquiring Rednecks want to know.

      Go Wildrose!
      Kick the Bums out!
      40 years is long enough!

      Delete
    3. PC Supporter (Former Wildrose Supporter)23 April, 2012 13:06

      If the Wildrose win, then Allison Redford will probably cross the floor and join the Wildrose. She will then convert the conservatives in Wildrose to progressives. Then all that's left will be the partyless neo-conservatives who can't form a government. Progressives are the future, neo-conservatives will slowly die out and become extinct.

      Go PC!
      Kick the Bums out!
      4 weeks of Wildrose is long enough!

      Delete
  34. Where? is Eric's final seat projection for Alberta 2012? Gotta be at least 8 or 9pm where he is at.

    Ken.

    ReplyDelete
  35. This will be an interesting election. I think if the election lasted a week longer, it would favour the PCs, as Wildrose is being scrutinized more as of late. Other factor to consider is the strategic vote, and how many people effectively vote PC as the lesser of two evils.

    ReplyDelete

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