Monday, October 18, 2010

Conservatives and NDP up in latest EKOS

Thursday's EKOS poll shows an uptick in support for both the Conservatives and the New Democrats compared to two weeks ago, with the Liberals dropping more than two points.However, the picture is murkier when looking at the situation from week-to-week. Two weeks ago, the Conservatives were at 33.1%. That fell to 31.8% last week but rose to 34.4% this week. So, for the Tories at least, their numbers are just oscillating back and forth.

For the Liberals, they are down 2.1 points from two weeks ago, but are actually up 0.2 points from last week with 27.8%.

The New Democrats went from 13.5% two weeks ago to 16.5% last week and now 15.8%. However, those last two numbers are within the norm for the NDP, a good sign after their disastrous result two weeks ago.

The Greens stand at 10.4% (down 0.8 from last week) while the Bloc Québécois is at 9.3%.

The Conservatives hold the edge among men with 40% to the Liberals' 29%, but the Liberals lead among women with 30% to the Conservatives' 26%. A gender divide, to say the least.

The race is very close in Ontario, and this has been consistent over the last two weeks. The Conservatives lead with 37.8%, compared to 34.2% last week. The Liberals follow with 37.3%, as opposed to 35.1%. So the two parties are trading leads back and forth. The NDP is down to 14.3%, but was at 17% last week, while the Greens are at 9.5%. The Liberals lead in both Toronto and Ottawa with 44% and 38%, respectively. The Conservatives trail with 36% and 35%, respectively. This Liberal lead in the nation's capital has been pretty solid for the past few months.

In Quebec, the Bloc leads with 37%, down 1.8 points from last week. The Liberals follow with 24%, up two, and the Conservatives stand in third with only 13.7%. That is a drop of 1.3 points from last week, and well below where they need to be. The Greens stand at 12.7%, ahead of the NDP. The Bloc leads in Montreal with 39%, with the Liberals following at 27%.

The Conservatives are way ahead in British Columbia with 40.9%, up over 12 points from last week. The NDP trails with 23.5% (down 6.5) while the Liberals are struggling with 16.3%. The Greens stand at 15.2%. The Conservatives lead in Vancouver with 44%, with the NDP well behind at 20%.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 37%, up about six points from last week. The NDP is second with 30.9%, up 10.

The Conservatives lead in Alberta and the Prairies with 61.8% and 45%, respectively. The Liberals are second in Alberta with 15% while the NDP trails in the Prairies with 21.1%.

With these poll results, the Conservatives would win 75 seats in the West and North, 48 in Ontario, seven in Atlantic Canada, and four in Quebec for a total of 134.

The Liberals would win 47 in Ontario, 19 in Atlantic Canada, 17 in Quebec, and nine in the West and North for a total of 92.

The Bloc would win 53 seats in Quebec.

The NDP would win 11 seats in the West, 11 in Ontario, six in Atlantic Canada, and one in Quebec for a total of 29.

It does seem that the Conservatives have managed to re-create a gap between themselves and the Liberals that is greater than the margin of error. But the race is still very close in Ontario, where the real electoral battle will be waged. Take away the big Conservative gain in British Columbia and this poll becomes very close indeed. But the Tories are where they need to be: a decent lead that can be built upon in an electoral campaign.

19 comments:

  1. If I were the NDP, I would not take any comfort in sitting at 16% and 29 seats. They may have rebounded from the last round of polling, but they're still pretty stagnant for the party that is supposed to become Canada's new Official Opposition next election.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hmm??

    Seems the Bloc gain continues ?

    ReplyDelete
  3. It's possible the Liberals are being hurt in BC by voters who have trouble distinguishing between federal and provincial parties.

    Gordon Campbell's approval rating is 9% (this was in Vancouver's papers over the weekend). 9% is a staggeringly low number. I wouldn't be at all surprised if there were some spill-over.

    The question is, does that go away once BC holds its HST referendum and the issue stops driving voter anger?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Peter,

    There is no real "Bloc gain" except that they take advantage of a split in the vote. 37% is the party's low watermark, and they've more or less stuck between 36-40% over the past few months. They're stable in the popular vote, but gain because the federal opposition in the province has their heads stuck in the sand half the time.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Ira I don't think the voter anger goes away until those associated with the HST are gone - at the very least Campbell and Hanson. As well the HST needs to be gone. Very worst scenario is that the Liberals need to be defeated. That is if you are a Liberal.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Ira said: "It's possible the Liberals are being hurt in BC by voters who have trouble distinguishing between federal and provincial parties."
    ___________________________________

    Somehow, I doubt that.
    If you look at the 16.3% the Liberals have in BC under Ekos and move to the 8.5% extremity margin of error you have 24.8%.

    At the same time, Nanos showed the Liberals leading in BC at 32%. Again if you move to the 9% extremity margin of error you have 23%.

    So 24.8% and 23%, which overlap each other. Eric currently projects 23.7% for the Liberals in BC. It's just statistical noise.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I just took a sniff and your projections on the Bloc just don't smell right.


    Last election they had a full 10% of the vote nationally (all in Quebec) and won 48 seats.

    Now their vote % drops from 10% to 9.3 % and you suggest this translates to a GAIN of 5 seats?

    Of the 17 most closely contested ridings (margin of win < 5000) in the 2008 election the Bloc won 11, the CPC 3, the Liberals 1 an independent 1 and the NDP 1.

    The BLOC won 3 seats with less than 1000 votes. If they fall below 10% in national voting polls (as they are now, it is almost guaranteed that they will lose these 3 seats and rely on vote splinting to hang onto their other 8 nail biters.

    For them to pick up 5 seats they have to hang on to all their 11 marginal wins PLUS win 5 of 6 of the other marginal races..... Just not going to happen.




    A drop of .7% means that the BLOC loses 3 seats.


    Your welcome :)

    ReplyDelete
  8. as an add on to my previous post the BLOC at 37% in Quebec is down a full 1.1% of their popular vote in 2008.


    With the same turn out as in 2008 that would translate to 40,000 less BLOC votes.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Interesting. Looking at the EKOS trend graph (page 3), there's finally a small but detectable downward Green trend since mid-summer. A true Green drop hasn't happened since the 2008 election. It's impressive that the climb has lasted so long.

    Beginning of the end? Um, no, I wouldn't put money on that. Unless Michael Chong is the harbinger of a new parliament in which the parties work together for the good of the country. And I find puppydogs and unicorns on my doorstep tomorrow morning.

    It's also interesting that the Dippers have been on a parallel course to the Greens since the spring. They climbed together at the beginning and have both recently declined slightly. This suggests that the two parties aren't trading off votes; both have gained and lost from the two largest parties.

    On that note, the NDP isn't really "up"; they're just not as disastrously (and artificially) down as they were a couple of weeks ago. However, relative to the last eighteen months they're not exactly dumpster-bound either. Same old--same old is more like it.

    ReplyDelete
  10. BCVoR,

    The Conservatives are down almost half of their vote. That will have a teeny tiny effect on things in Quebec.

    ReplyDelete
  11. BCVOR,

    Of course, if you look at the two week polling data the Bloc is roughly where it was in 2008 (38% vis 38.1%) while all the other parties are down (with the Tories and the NDP down significantly).

    And even in the last week of data, the drop off in support for the Tories is so large that that has to turn up somewhere. Since the BQ finished 2nd in all but one of the ridings the Tories won in 2008 (Pontiac being the exception), they'd be the prime beneficiary of the 7 seats that Eric projects the Tories would lose). So a net gain of 5 means they'd also lose two seats to the Grits.

    I'm not sure why you think the Bloc would have trouble holding onto their marginal seats, since the latest polls show the Liberals doing no better in Quebec now than they did in 2008.

    As an aside (and maybe Eric can answer this) I'm not sure how Ekos square the regional polls (which are more or less unchanged since 2008) with the National numbers in which, as you note, the Bloc is down. One theory is that EKOS is weigting their polling data with current population weighting (although I don't know how "fresh" statscan population data is) and English Canada's population has grown faster than Quebec's since 2008.
    I would subject to the caveat that the EKOS polls shows an implausibly high level of Green support.

    As for the apparent discrepancy between the

    ReplyDelete
  12. By-election night in Saskatchewan

    Saskatoon northwest.

    Vacated by Sask party MLA Serge LeClerc. who won by 2000 votes.

    2007 election
    Sask party 53.9%
    NDP 29.7%
    Liberal 14.7%
    Green 1.8%

    The Saskparty have said they will cruise to an easy win,.... the NDP are telling us we are in for a big surprise. And as usual,... noone knows if the Liberal actually exists.

    http://www.elections.sk.ca/northwest/index.php

    with a little more than 3/4 of polls reporting (31/41)

    1925 Sask party 57.8%
    1116 NDP 33.5%
    123 Liberal
    88 PC
    76 Green
    3329 ballots counted (so far)

    ReplyDelete
  13. Saskatoon Northwest By-election Mon Oct. 18/10


    Unofficial results:

    3051 Sask party 59% (up 5.2%)
    1711 NDP 33.1% (up 3.4%)
    157 Liberal 3% (down 11.8%)
    133 PC 2.6% (no candidate in 07)
    122 Green 2.4% (up.6%)

    5175 ballots counted (I think just over 50% of eligible voters compared to 81% in the 2007 election)



    It would appear that Brad wall and the Sask party are just as popular as ever.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Carl: Of course, if you look at the two week polling data the Bloc is roughly where it was in 2008 (38% vis 38.1%) while all the other parties are down...

    All the other parties are down? That's an interesting conundrum; where did those votes go?

    Oh, right.

    ReplyDelete
  15. John said: "All the other parties are down? That's an interesting conundrum; where did those votes go?"

    Just like those votes went to the Greens in 2008 right?

    ReplyDelete
  16. Green is just another word for undecided.

    ReplyDelete
  17. DL said...
    "Green is just another word for undecided."

    Good line.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Of the 17 close seats (less than 5000) the Bloc edged out the Liberals in 10 of them. The Liberals were also 2nd in Pontiac to the CPC.

    The Liberals are up 3% in this poll to what they were last election.

    It would seem that the Bloc losing any popular vote at all will lose them seats.

    Looking at the election results from 2008 in Quebec everything broke exactly right for the Bloc.

    Had Harper made a real goof rather than than the arts funding (Or Dion not being a total train wreck) it could have easily left the Liberals with 11 more seats ... the CPC with only 8 and the Bloc down 8.

    This is assuming that the CPC federalist support would go to the Liberals.

    The Bloc is very much in the same position in Quebec as the CPC is in the rest of Canada. They both benefit from the vote splinting of the Federalists and the Left respectively.

    If the Bloc % goes down they will lose seats.

    Even if the % vote comes out exactly the same as in 2008 they will likely lose seats.... Winning 11 of 17 close races involves more than a little luck.

    ReplyDelete
  19. "The Liberals are up 3% in this poll to what they were last election.

    It would seem that the Bloc losing any popular vote at all will lose them seats."

    What on earth are you talking about? In 2008 the Liberals got 23.7% of the votes in Quebec. In this poll (the two week data) the Liberals were polling at 23%. I freely admit that I'm not a math-whiz, but even my primitive math skills translates that into a decline of .7% not an increase of 3% (while the Bloc has stayed more or less where they were). Even if you only look at the data for the second week, the Liberals barely gained 0.3% (not 3%) while the first week shows a significant decline (1.7% - while the Bloc has a corresponding gain).

    Simpy put, the Liberals aren't making gains on the Bloc in Quebec, while the Bloc is making gains on the Tories. The actual polling data speaks for itself.

    ReplyDelete

COMMENT MODERATION POLICY - Please be respectful when commenting. If choosing to remain anonymous, please sign your comment with some sort of pseudonym to avoid confusion. Please do not use any derogatory terms for fellow commenters, parties, or politicians. Inflammatory and overly partisan comments will not be posted. PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION ON TOPIC.