Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Federal NDP drops in Manitoba

A poll taken by Probe Research at the end of September shows that support for the New Democrats at the federal level has dropped significantly in Manitoba, to the benefit of the Liberals and Conservatives.Compared to Probe's last Manitoba federal poll taken in June, the NDP has lost six points and now stands at only 18%. The Conservatives lead with 47%, up three from June but still down two from the 2008 election. The Liberals have moved into second place with 25%, up four from June and up six from 2008.

The Greens are at 6%, down four from June and one from 2008.

The Conservatives lead both inside and outside of Winnipeg, but the race is much closer in the city than it is outside of it. With 32%, the Liberals are only eight points behind the Conservatives in Winnipeg, while the NDP is at 21%. Outside of Winnipeg, the Conservatives have a massive lead with 56% to the Liberals' 16% and the NDP's 15%.

Using a simple uniform swing method, the Conservatives would be projected to win 10 seats in the province, up one from 2008. The Liberals would also gain a seat and win two, while the NDP would be the loser of those two seats and be reduced to two seats themselves in Manitoba.

The Conservatives would gain the riding of Elmwood-Transcona, while the Liberals would win in Churchill. These are the ridings of Jim Maloway and Niki Ashton, respectively, two NDP MPs who voted to scrap the long-gun registry three weeks ago.

While it is impossible to predict what would happen at the local level, it appears possible that the NDP's perceived stance on the issue, rather than the voting history of individual members, will put several seats at risk of being taken over by the Liberals and Conservatives in the next federal election.


  1. I'm interested to see what the results of the Winnipeg by-election will be. With a star Liberal candidate and an upswing in support for the party in the city and province it could be an interesting race.

  2. Eric could you apply uniform swing to Winnipeg North's 2008 election results to get an idea of how the by-election will shape up ?

  3. I'll do something like that for all by-elections when they are officially called.

  4. It looks like the LG has polarized the pro vote to the libs and the anti to the rural cons marginalizing the NDP. The rise of the libs to 2nd and decline of the cons and NDP in Winnipeg shows there is an Urban/rural divide and the urban LG vote is going lib. Usually the west is a battle between NDPand tories so Harpers attempt to shake loose NDP voters might lose him some urban seats to the libs In the west if the trend continues

  5. what's worse for the Harper conservatives? losing the fight for a seat on the u.n. security council or posting the worst deficit in cdn history at 55billion? the gst was lowered 2 percent wich saved us all 4cents per coffee but now the hst has been introduced, everything that isn't purchased in a grocery store is 7percent more expensive...what could possibly be conservative about a 55billion dollar budget shortfall... ouch

  6. Eric rw look at the seats that actuallly moved around.

    Liberals gained the rural seat of Churchill and CPC gained the urban seat of Elmwood-Transcona.

    IF what you were saying were true the reverse would have happened.


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