Saturday, October 2, 2010

Federal and provincial results from CROP

So, La Presse ordered a new poll from CROP, the pollster we last heard from in January. As you may know, I really dislike CROP. They poll irregularly and never release the full results of their findings. They usually also come to conclusions very different from what other pollsters have found, particularly at the federal level.

But first, we'll look at their provincial results, which actually aren't too unusual.Since that January poll, the Parti Québécois has gained two points and leads with 40%, a number that we've been seeing for months now. The Liberals have dropped nine points, and are at 31%.

Interestingly, comparing this poll to the one nine months ago shows how the situation in Quebec has changed. The Action Démocratique du Québec, which was in the doldrums before the Liberals tanked, is up seven points to 13%. Québec Solidaire is up one to 9% and the Greens are down one to 7%.

With this poll, the PQ would win 70 seats and form a majority government. The Liberals would win 46 seats, while the ADQ would win seven and Québec Solidaire two.

How QS will perform in the next election, far away as it may be, will definitely be something I am going to watch closely. The party is polling at three times its support level in 2008, and recent by-elections have demonstrated that the party actually does have some legs. But in that last election, only two ridings had particularly strong QS performances: Mercier, where Amir Khadir was elected, and Gouin, where Françoise David finished in a strong second. If the party really is going to be supported by 1 in 10 Quebecers, we could see them in play in other parts of the province.

Now the federal poll, which is just a little odd.The poll has the Bloc Québécois at 32%, well below what we've seen elsewhere. But this isn't the first time that CROP has had the BQ so low. Oddly enough, though, is that the Liberals aren't performing very well. They're at 23%, which is just about where other pollsters have had them.

Instead, the Conservatives are riding high, with 23%. This is where the poll smells a little. Also, the New Democrats are at 18%, while the Greens are assumed to be at 4%. I don't know, though, since it wasn't reported.

With this poll, the Bloc Québécois would win 45 seats. The Liberals would win 16 and the Conservatives 12. The NDP would win two seats with this result.

At the provincial level, CROP shows the status quo. At the federal level, CROP shows the Bloc down very low and the Conservatives very high. It is very strange that CROP could come to such two very different results with the same 1,001 people.


  1. Éric,

    If this Prime Minister sinks his own government over NDP alleged obstruction of the passage of the Panama Free Trade Agreement, they will want to get the Quebec amphitheatre announcement in before trekking to the polls.

    Right now, they know that most of their Quebec City seats are G-O-N-E. With a federal funding announcement made, they will make a full court press to get Louis-Hébert, Quebec and any of the other ridings in the Saint Lawrence Valley that they can possibly scrape up.

    So, in the final analysis, CROP could turn out to be surprisingly "prescient"!

  2. Ron I wouldn't be writing off any Quebec seats just yet.

    The polls are all over the place with Eric projecting 5,5,6,7,9, 10 or 12 seats from september polls.

    Too much noise to really make any calls just yet.

    BTW - I agree Quebec City arena is definetly going to happen. I believe the mayor said he wants to start building next year ?

    Some kind of deal has been made.

    I wonder if it takes the form of this december Harper over ruling the CRTC to give Quebecor some kind of special deal worth millions, with those millions of dollars being plowed right back into the stadium.

    Lol its the Fox-Hockey version of Iran-Contra.

  3. Shadow,

    Quid pro quo -- the three most dangerous words for this government. This Prime Minister is bound to have done his due diligence (and then some) to avoid being eventually bitten in the ass by this.

    But it's one of those genie-in-the-bottle things. Once out and no longer contained, who knows where it will go politically. Someone is bound to suffer serious negative political consequences. Will it be an opposition party or an incumbent government? Depends on how skilfully it's played and more importantly, on the QUALITY and quantity of the inevitable leaks!

  4. One more thing Shadow: who gets to play Ollie North???!!! LOL.

  5. Looks like Stockwell Day was right after all (wonder if he got a sneak peak at the early figures but couldn't say anything until the report was finalized):

    Unreported crime is INCREASING.

  6. Maybe we should rename it CRAP. There is no way the tories r@23%.Harper will be lucky to keep 5 seats-if momentum swings to the libs in the spring election and Q voters sense the tories will no longer be gov't they could be wiped out.

  7. I wouldn't be that quick to dismiss CROP. I agree that having the Tories at 23% is a bit of a surprise, but Leger in their recent poll of 1,000 had the Tories at 22% and Ekos had the Tories at 21% in Quebec in mid-September. Other polls have had them in the low teens. I'm just pointing out that the CROP poll is not that much of an outlier. We will never know who was right or wrong since aren't going to the polls today.

  8. It's a pretty common narrative in the media, that the Conservatives will "lose their seats in Quebec". Well so far they only lose one, and then gain Riviere-du-Loop in a Byelection. And the media has been saying that the ADQ is going to disapear.

    It is probably a good assumption that niether of them will sweep Quebec, or even win a seat in Montreal. But the media and the pollsters forget's that there is a world outside of Montreal and Toronto. And out there in the Quebec suburbs, Eastenrn townships and lower St. Laurent, they are probably pretty content that they have MP's on the government side, who rightly or wrongly can "get stuff done", for their constituancies.

    SO there is a base of Conservative support for the CPC and the ADQ which allows them to keep the seats, and probably pick up a few more a time goes on.


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