Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Conservatives gain in new Angus-Reid poll, but NDP real winner

The latest poll from Angus-Reid shows the Conservatives have moved back to their 2008 levels and that the New Democrats have also improved their standing. The Liberals remain unmoved. All this at the expense of the Greens.Compared to Angus-Reid's last poll taken between September 27 and 28, the Conservatives have gained three points and now lead with 37%. The Liberals are unchanged at 26% while the NDP is up one point to 19%.

The Bloc Québécois is steady at 10% nationally while the Greens have dropped five points to only 6%.

There are some wild swings in this poll, however, which lead me to urge caution when looking at the regional results.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have gained five points and lead with 41%. The Liberals follow with 32%, down one. The NDP is steady at 19% while the Greens are down four to 7%.

The Bloc has gained one point in Quebec and leads with 39%, with the Liberals up two points to 24%. The Conservatives have dropped one and are now at 16%, while the NDP is down three to 14%.

The New Democrats are up 13 big points in British Columbia, and now lead with 37%. The Conservatives have dropped seven to 32%, while the Liberals are up four to 22%. The Greens are down nine points to 8%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have dropped five points but still lead with 43%. The Conservatives follow with 29% while the NDP is down nine points to 21%.

The Conservatives have gained 10 points in Alberta and lead with 60%, with the Liberals in second at 16%.

And in the Prairies, the Conservatives are up - 20 points!. The NDP dropped nine to 15% while the Liberals dropped the same amount down to 10%.

Based on what other polls have been saying, the Conservatives likely need to be pruned down in the Prairies and Ontario. The same goes for the NDP in British Columbia. The Liberals look about right, though.

All three main party leaders have improved their approval/disapproval ratings, as compared to a month ago. Stephen Harper has an approval/disapproval rating of 28% to 46%, which is actually an improvement of six points in his favour. Jack Layton, with a rating of 27% to 31%, has also improved by six net points.

Michael Ignatieff has improved by five net points, with a rating of 16% to 43%.

Angus-Reid also asks respondents about the leaders' personal attributes. Rather than go through them all, it's worth noting some of the major changes.

For Stephen Harper, 26% of Canadians believe him to be dishonest. That is, however, much better than the 36% last month. But 32%, up five points, believe him to be boring.

Ignatieff, on the other hand, seems less boring to Canadians. His score on that trait is down five points to 30%.

Layton is seen in touch by 21% of Canadians, up eight points. The same goes for Gilles Duceppe, up five points to 9%.

Based on these polling results, the Conservatives would win 57 seats in Ontario, 27 in Alberta, 24 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 14 in British Columbia, seven in Atlantic Canada, six in Quebec, and one in the North for a total of 136.

The Liberals would win 34 seats in Ontario, 22 in Atlantic Canada, 15 in Quebec, six in British Columbia, one in the Prairies, and two in the North for a total of 80.

The Bloc Québécois would win 53 seats in Quebec.

The NDP would win 16 seats in British Columbia, 15 in Ontario, three in Atlantic Canada, three in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, one in Quebec, and one in Alberta for a total of 39.

Though the Conservatives are up three points nationally, this polling result gives them only one more seat than they would have won at the end of September. That is because a lot of the gains the party has made are wasted in the Prairies and Alberta, where the Conservatives are already maxed out. The party is not doing well enough in Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and British Columbia to win as many seats as the Conservatives currently hold in these regions.

The Liberals, in their immobility, lose 11 seats as compared to Angus-Reid's last poll. The party is flat in British Columbia and Ontario, and is still struggling to improve its standing in Quebec.

The big gainer in this poll, then, has to be the New Democratic Party. The NDP would win nine more seats than Angus-Reid's last poll. They are doing very well in British Columbia and Ontario, the two provinces that are key to NDP gains in the next election.

17 comments:

  1. Discussion of a majority government may now resume.

    High MOE with those regional numbers.
    But top line is pretty astounding.

    I'll see how EKOS is trending tommorow for confirmation.

    BTW - no way those Prairie numbers are right.

    However, this has to be good news for Julie Javier in Winnipeg North and Julian Fantino in Vaughan.

    Talk of a by-election sweep should also be on the table.

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  2. Ouchy. I wonder whether or not Ekos will confirm these results tomorrow.

    Mind you, this is an increase of 1% over AR's last poll for the NDP, which gave them a huge amount when they were down in every single other poll by two points or more. I know I'm a broken record on this, but any AR poll remains a suspicious one to me.

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  3. While the Ontario and BC numbers are a bit odd, I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss them, as they're consistent with what is happening provincially in both provinces (i.e., the BC NDP are running wild and the Ontario Tories appear to be in a position to boot Dalton McGuinty in 2011, plus Torontonians have shown that they aren't inherently allergic to "blue" conservatives). It wouldn't be wholly surprising to see some of those local trends spill onto the federal scene.

    And speaking of local factors, did anyone catch the apparent raprochement between Stephen Harper and Danny Williams? Having apparently figured it pays to play nice with one another, they're apparently discussing a proposal to provide federal funds to build an underwater transmission line from Labrador to the US market (by way, I suppose, of New Brunswick). Doing so would be a real coup for Danny Williams (as it would allow NFLD to access the US electricity grid without going through Quebec) and would probably go a long way to redeeming federal Tory fortunes out there (to say nothing of giving them an excuse to spent a ton of money in NFLD and NB). Interesting times.

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  4. Angus-Reid is out to lunch.

    Let's see what Ekos says tomorrow?

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  5. Torontonians have shown that they aren't inherently allergic to "blue" conservatives.
    They never were, if by "blue" you mean fiscal conservatives. But good luck translating that into a win for the SoCon Hudak Harper.

    Ford is most like Paul Martin, owner of a business earning $100 million a year, and using those skills to balance a government budget.

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  6. I predict that Ekos will be quite similar to ARG, but as usual they will have the Greens and "Other" far higher as a result of the way they prompt for them and the NDP may be a bit lower as a result.

    Ultimately the most important thing to look at is the overall trend within the same polling company. While the NDP only lost 1% in Sept. compared to the previous ARG survey - a lot of Layton's personal attributes were down - probably as a result of that survey taking place right when he was getting some flak over the gun registry etc... But its clear that that is now ancient history and that his personal numbers are back where they were earlier in the summer.

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  7. "And speaking of local factors, did anyone catch the apparent raprochement between Stephen Harper and Danny Williams?...."

    I heard from someone last week that is involved in provincial politics, though not at an elected level or for a particular party, that said the Conservatives still don't havea a chance in Newfoundland and Labrador, unless a real star candidate is found.

    They said that while Williams and Harper's relationship seems to be better it isn't and provincial conservatives still won't be supporting the federal Conservatives in the next election which was what their major problem in 2008 was. They cannot run an effective campaign with no money or volunteers.

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  8. Peter, Volkov, you know very well that EKOS won't match or confirm these numbers.

    These polls consistently have very different house effects.

    Ignore the top line numbers from EKOS and see if the TREND matches.

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  9. EKOS matches AR trend!

    Comparing the EKOS poll from a month ago to the new one we get the CPC-LPC gap increasing by 3 points.

    Comparing AR poll from a month ago to the new we get the CPC-LPC gap increasing by 3 points.

    Amazing.

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  10. the chances of Harper winning a majority are small... if he couldn't do it against dion he can't do it...the discussion should be about harpers gross mismanagement of the federal

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  11. Johnny One-Note here, but I always find the trend graphs like the one on page 3 of the AR poll give the most information.

    The Green Party of Canada has polled 8-ish% for the last year and a half according to Angus Reid. Last month they were the highest they've been in that period. This month they're at their minimum.

    Which is right? "Neither" would be a very good guess. Average them out and you get... 8-ish%, which sounds a bit more credible. I don't recall any reports of Elizabeth May walking on water in September, nor has she (to the best of my knowledge) crucified any babies this month.

    That line of reasoning could be extended to October Conservative support, but I wouldn't want to rain on anybody's Party.

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  12. "But good luck translating that into a win for the SoCon Hudak Harper."

    Nice talking point, but not actually a reasoned thought. Hudak was a disciple of Mike Harris who, whatever he was, was not a social conservative.

    As for Harper, his social conservatism has always been skin-deep. My sneaking suspicion is that, deep down, he doesn't much care about social conservative issues, but is willing to fake it in order to keep the social conservatives in his party in line.

    My bet is that, in the next federal election, the Ford administration will throw everything it has into getting a conservative MP elected in Toronto, so that it has a direct pipeline to the cabinet table. (If David Miller weren't such a profound incompetent, we would have done the same thing in 2008 - ideology be damned, having an effective voice in Ottawa is far more important.)

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  13. Ekos is out

    Stagnation is best description.dushicke

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  14. "If David Miller weren't such a profound incompetent, we would have done the same thing in 2008 - ideology be damned, having an effective voice in Ottawa is far more important."

    Balderdash.

    Having a voice in Ottawa that saying the complete opposite of what you want isn't of any value. Guys like Van Loan were hardly a positive influence for Ontario when say, the subject of election reform came up. Also given how close the government was to a majority, I'd say ideology was a fairly significant factor to consider.

    That and I don't I've ever seen any mayor anywhere stump for somebody purely for influence reasons, (As if influence doesn't just flow downwards in this government) while being completely opposed to their positions.

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  15. hannaji - angus reid and ipsos reid polls are conservative friendly but its also interesting to note that they are two of the more-most accurate polling firms to date....

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  16. Oddly, Ipsos blew the TO election, while EKOS nailed it.

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  17. "Having a voice in Ottawa that saying the complete opposite of what you want isn't of any value. Also given how close the government was to a majority, I'd say ideology was a fairly significant factor to consider."

    Except, even people who are ideologically opposed to one another can often find common ground on what's good for their constituents (witness the ability of the NDP and the Tories to occasionally work out deals on immigration, EI). Moreover, in my mind, the prospect of a Tory majority makes it even more important to have a seat at the table.

    Plus, you're assuming that a Conservative elected from Toronto would not reflect the values of Toronto area Conservatives (who tend to be far more "liberal", for lack of a better word, than, say, their colleagues from rural Alberta - the same is probably true of Toronto area Liberals and Dippers). I don't find it at all hard to believe that David Miller could have found common cause with, say, a Red Tory (a la John Tory mould) from Toronto had he put his mind to it. He put ideology ahead of the best interests of his city (which, come to think of it, is the epitath of the Miller administration).

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