Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Steady as she goes in new Harris-Decima poll

Harris-Decima's new poll shows very little change from two weeks ago, with the race between the Conservatives and the Liberals as close as ever and within the margin of error.At 32%, the Conservatives have dropped one point from Harris-Decima's last poll. The Liberals are steady at 30%, as are the New Democrats at 14%.

The Greens are down one to 10% and the Bloc Québécois is steady at 10%.

One of the factors in this poll is the large (4%) result for "Others". As the largest regional results for this group is out West, we can probably assume that the Tories would pick up about two of the three points that the "Others" would give up on election day. It should help them in British Columbia but the party is already virtually maxed out in Alberta and the Prairies.

In Ontario, the Conservatives lead a very close race with 38%, up four points from two weeks ago. The Liberals are up one to 38%, while the NDP is down two to 12%. That is way too low for Jack Layton's party. The Greens are also down two, but to 10%.

The Bloc has picked up five points in Quebec and leads with 43%, followed by the Liberals at 23% (down two). The Conservatives are out of it with 13% (down one) and the NDP is up one to 10%.

British Columbia is a three-way race, with the main parties statistically tied. Even the Greens are in it. The Tories lead with 27% (down ten), followed by the NDP at 26% (up six) and the Liberals at 25% (down two). The Greens are up three to 17%.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 40%, a gain of six points. The Conservatives follow with 34% and the NDP has dropped five to 18%.

The Conservatives have lost eight points in Alberta but lead with 53%. The Liberals are running second at a very good 19% and the NDP is up seven to 15%.

The Tories lead in the Prairies with 42%, followed by the NDP at 23%.

With this poll, the Conservatives would win 50 seats in Ontario, 26 in Alberta, 21 in the Prairies, 14 in British Columbia, nine in Atlantic Canada, four in Quebec, and one in the North for a total of 125.

The Liberals would win 49 in Ontario, 21 in Atlantic Canada, 15 in Quebec, 11 in British Columbia, four in the Prairies, two in the North, and one in Alberta for a total of 103.

The Bloc would win 55 seats in Quebec.

The New Democrats would win 11 seats in British Columbia, seven in Ontario, three in the Prairies, two in Atlantic Canada, and one each in Alberta and Quebec for a total of 25.

The Liberals and NDP would combine for 128 seats, making a minority government led by Stephen Harper and his party's 125 seats very precarious.

This poll doesn't tell us anything new, not that individual polls usually do. It does help to solidify what is the present polling narrative: close races nationally, in Ontario, and in British Columbia, but with the Conservatives holding the edge in all three.

20 comments:

  1. Those BC results must have been taken in/or heavily weighted toward either urban Victoria or Vancouver!

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  2. If the Liberals could push their "big red tent" vision in the west and take some of the NDP support away they could be doing very well.

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  3. "Those BC results must have been taken in/or heavily weighted toward either urban Victoria or Vancouver!"

    Well the Ekos poll showed 44% for the Conservatives in Vancouver last week so it's unlikely.

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  4. Welcome to 2006! The NDP needs to do much better in Maskatchewan and northern ont to hope to swing another 15 seats away from the tories and enable the libs to form a coalition with them.

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  5. Éric,

    We both know how politics tends to run in our home nation...when things start to go bad -- the reverse momentum catches on like a house on fire. Put another way, Conservative support is in free-fall and to my mind, that trend is now irreversible.

    The HD results suggests a 7 seat loss. I would argue that the damage will be far worse given conditions on the ground in Quebec. Once the engine goes, that's it.

    I won't yet say that it's lights out for the CPC in Quebec. But I will go so far as to say that perhaps only Gourde is likely to be left standing when the smoke clears. Even as a Liberal, it's my hope that Josée can hang on. She is the most decent elected Quebec Conservative I know and has always treated yours truly with both courtesy and respect. How can I not wish her well.

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  6. And Bloc seat numbers just continue to increase.

    Wonder how long before they equal all Quebec seats ??

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  7. The biggest beneficiaries of an early election would be the Bloc (who would win the most seats in their history) and the Greens (who have their best chance ever to win a seat, with BC in a four-way race). Harper would have his minority reduced, Ignatieff would still be in opposition and the NDP wouldn't have enough votes in the House to hold the balance of power. It looks like no one who can force an election has any interest in doing so.

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  8. 2008 the Bloc won 49/75 (down 2 from 06)

    This is the next closest 7 seats that they have a chance at. 55 seats would require 6 of the 7.

    1. Brossard—La Prairie, QC (Lib) 0.12%
    2. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier, QC (Ind) 1.47%
    3. Papineau, QC (Lib) 2.78%
    4. Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean, QC (Con) 3.89%
    5. Beauport—Limoilou, QC (Con) 4.15%
    6. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles, QC (Con) 11.93%
    7. Jonquière—Alma, QC (Con) 14.98%


    So in answer to your question Peter... A long time. The Bloc currently has the same chances of sweeping Quebec as the NDP do of sweeping Alberta. 54 won in 2004 (48.9% of the vote in Quebec) is pretty close to the upper limit... when anger at the sponsorship scandal was at its highest. Continuing to win more seats above 54-55 would seem to stretch the limits of credulity.

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  9. The Bloc's "ceiling" is 60 seats. Once we get over 60 seats (and the Bloc would need to be doing incredibly well to get over 55), we're talking about the West Island and other ridings where the Bloc has never performed well and never will.

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  10. Roadmap to Bloc Quebecois Sweep in Montreal's West Island:

    1. Wait for Anglos to Die. West Island anglophones tend to be older than the rest of the Quebec population. Older people tend to die more readily than young people. Dead people tend to vote less than living people.
    2. Moving Trucks. Francophone yuppies moved in droves to Vaudreuil, Carignan, Sainte-Rose etc. before the recession. After years of living in those off-island hellholes, they won't find the prospect of moving to the West Island so bad anymore; at least you can buy bagels there.
    3. Floor Crossing. Richard Holden led the way. Can Irwin Cotler be far behind?

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  11. Eric if the BLoc do get up to 60 seats that removes essentially any possibility of a majority for ANY party. !!

    Sorry Shadow but that's the way it is .

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  12. 308-60=248

    154 out of 248... 62% of seats instead of just 50%.

    Have to win all but 94 (+60)

    That's if the bloc get all the way to their ceiling.... A premise that is itself flawed. (Just like most of your assertions Peter)


    But if you want to talk about that best case for the Bloc Peter... lets go back to the best case for last month:

    http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2010/10/september-best-and-worst-case-scenarios.html

    Yeah, the one that showed that best case for the conservatives is infact in majority territory. That is just as likely as the bloc hitting 60 seats... Just as likely that the liberals and NDP winning a majority coalition in the Tory worst case calculation.


    Eric's model does show the tories flirting with a majority on a couple occasions. A tory Majority is possible.

    Sorry Peter, That's just the way it is.

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  13. Peter did you hear about Kory landing firmly on his feet ?

    In other interesting news, yesterday I read a statistical analysis of American election polls that showed the concept of "momentum" doesn't really exist.

    Extrapolating what should be a general principle. the fact that the BQ has been going up recently does not mean they will go up further. Nor does it mean they will fall. Nor does it mean they will stay the same.

    It has no relevance on the future whatsoever.


    So like Kory I have no worries. Looking forward to Sun Tv's launch in the new year.

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  14. A premise that is itself flawed. (Just like most of your assertions Peter)

    Can you say "speculation"

    Can't believe the stupidity and tunnel vision on here.

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  15. A premise that is itself flawed. (Just like most of your speculations Peter)

    Sure. fixed it. Anything for you Peter



    "Can't believe the stupidity and tunnel vision on here."

    Agreed.. but I bet we have different views on who it is we are talking about....

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  16. Peter,

    "And Bloc seat numbers just continue to increase.

    Wonder how long before they equal all Quebec seats ??"

    I agree with you to the extent that I also believe that the Bloc will remain the Quebec powerhouse for the foreseeable future.

    But barring some great federalist-sovereignist controversy that suddenly comes out of nowhere, I don't expect much Liberal erosion in the greater Montreal area.

    Liberals can break the Bloc's back but that can't be done without a majority mandate. In short, we can address that problem if the voters elect and then re-elect us with an increased mandate. There is a way out of that particular box. But political reality requires that we let it slide for several more years.

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  17. Goaltender Interference,

    "The biggest beneficiaries of an early election would be the Bloc (who would win the most seats in their history) and the Greens (who have their best chance ever to win a seat, with BC in a four-way race). Harper would have his minority reduced, Ignatieff would still be in opposition and the NDP wouldn't have enough votes in the House to hold the balance of power. It looks like no one who can force an election has any interest in doing so."

    With respect, campaigns matter. Just ask the guy who was left for dead in a previous Quebec election. The lead pipe cinch does not exist in politics -- there is never a guarantee you can win, even in government.

    So you have to suck it up, work the numbers, play it out and finally roll the dice when you think you have a decent shot at victory. And yes, that can mean sprinting out of the blocks when the chances appear to be less than 50%.

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  18. Shadow,

    "So like Kory I have no worries. Looking forward to Sun Tv's launch in the new year."

    Now Shadow, I know I can count on you to follow the sound advice of an ex-Conservative and not cast too large or frequent a shadow as you delight in the pending offerings of Right-Wing-Television!!!!!!

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  19. Ron do you know what Harper is doing with these by-elections ??

    Its genius really.

    On november 29th he cleans the clock of the Liberals.

    Then at some point in december or the new year there's 2 more by-elections in which he also cleans the clock of the Liberals.


    Its a 1-2 punch strategy. The follow up is either a spring election OR scare the Liberals so badly that they end up supporting another budget.

    Personally I think that's Harper's plan.

    The guy really doesn't want another election. They're a waste of time/money/effort and he can pretty much do whatever he wants right now anyways.

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  20. Shadow,

    "Its genius really."

    Unless an excess of confidence suddenly makes one O-V-E-R-R-E-A-C-H...

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