Monday, October 4, 2010

From the Globe & Mail: NDP pain means Liberal gain with Tories still on track for minority

Though Michael Ignatieff’s Liberal Party would make substantial gains at the expense of the Conservatives and faltering New Democrats, Stephen Harper would nevertheless win a third consecutive minority government if an election were held today, according to projections based on the most recent polling data.

Read the rest of my article at The Globe & Mail.


  1. Eric...

    After you have spent so much time and were so far off in seat predictions on the NB election you get welcomed into the MSM.

    Congratulations you must have reached a hidden incompetence level that makes you acceptable and quotable as an expert. CBC and CTV will be asking you to be on panels soon.

    I hope you do not go all mainstream on us as I think that you are far more transparent and unbiased than the rest of the party advisors that collect their paychecks as pollster/pundits.

    Any feed back on my suggestion to combine the Leadership polls into the seat projections?

  2. Good article, Eric. GM is really taking an interesting, eh!

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  4. I like the combining of the three polls to offer a larger sample size... I do not see a fall election in the cards right now... maybe someone has the info on which ridings the by-elections are in as these will be very interesting to watch as we will get to see where the momentum is trending...
    with this poll showing 129 seats for the cpc and 125 for the liberals and ndp combined we are back in that extremely precarious and potentially unstable parliamentary situation...
    this poll also highlights how our first past the post system of governance is totally screwing over green party voters...

  5. I think you're doing a great job Eric. The monthly blending of polls and seat count helps to smooth out outlier polls and blips. This has a great calming effect. The analysis is great and it's fun to blog with my fellow addicts. Thanks. As far as the situation now, I think we are in a period of relative stability with the cons about 3% above the libs. Even if the NDP rebounds I think they will take back some parked green vote and about an even amount of lib/con votes so not much will change. I can't see an election until at least the spring anyway, unless the polls spike for the cons and Harper thinks he can win. The polls show the con supporters the least interested in an election now, for good reason-bird in the hand-they will lose at least some seats.

  6. What ridings are up in the Nov 9 bye elections can be fond on the Elections Canada website.


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