Friday, October 15, 2010

Conservatives gain in new Nanos poll

Nanos Research released the details to their latest poll yesterday, showing that the Conservatives have made gains while the other parties stand still.Compared to Nanos's last poll taken at the end of August and the beginning of September, this is a 3.3 point gain for the Conservatives, who now lead with 36.6%. The Liberals are down 0.4 points to 32.4%, while the New Democrats are up 0.7 points to 16.3%.

The Bloc Québécois has 9.8% national support while the Greens slip 1.3 points to 4.9%.

Nanos is always the downer when it comes to Green results, so it should come as no surprise to see Elizabeth May's party below 5%. But just like I doubt the 12% results we see for the Greens in some polls, I doubt this result as well. The truth is somewhere in the happy middle.

Nanos shows a lot of change in Ontario, where the Conservatives have gained almost six points and lead with 41.9%. The Liberals are down almost eight points, to 35.7%. The NDP is up about five to 18.1%, while the Greens are down three to 4.4%.

The Bloc leads in Quebec with 38.3%, down more than two points since the beginning of September. The Liberals are up 0.4 points to 27.7%, while the Conservatives are up more than four points to 19.8%. The NDP brings up the rear with 11.2%, up 0.4 points.

The Liberals have gained more than two points in British Columbia and lead with 31.7%, one point ahead of the Conservatives (who are up 1.3 points). The NDP is down 1.4 points to 24.2%, while the Greens are down more than two points to 13.4%. This is the only area of strength for the Green Party in this poll.

In Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, the Conservatives lead with 53.4%. The Liberals follow with 29.8%, up almost six points, while the NDP is down eight to 14%.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 41%, followed by the Conservatives at 39.1% (down six).

With the results of this poll, the Conservatives would win 65 seats in the West and North, 54 in Ontario, 10 in Atlantic Canada, and eight in Quebec for a total of 137.

The Liberals would win 41 seats in Ontario, 21 in Atlantic Canada, 19 in the West and North, and 17 in Quebec for a total of 98.

The Bloc would win 49 seats in Quebec.

The NDP would win 11 seats in the West, 11 in Ontario, and one each in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

Compared to each party's current standing in the House of Commons, this would be a small reduction of the Conservative caucus and a significant culling of the NDP caucus, both to the benefit of the Liberals. But I don't think it would change the dynamics in the House very much.

It's been a busy week and the weekend should be even busier, so my report on EKOS will likely only be posted on Monday. I will also try to do a projection update next week.