Friday, October 15, 2010

Conservatives gain in new Nanos poll

Nanos Research released the details to their latest poll yesterday, showing that the Conservatives have made gains while the other parties stand still.Compared to Nanos's last poll taken at the end of August and the beginning of September, this is a 3.3 point gain for the Conservatives, who now lead with 36.6%. The Liberals are down 0.4 points to 32.4%, while the New Democrats are up 0.7 points to 16.3%.

The Bloc Québécois has 9.8% national support while the Greens slip 1.3 points to 4.9%.

Nanos is always the downer when it comes to Green results, so it should come as no surprise to see Elizabeth May's party below 5%. But just like I doubt the 12% results we see for the Greens in some polls, I doubt this result as well. The truth is somewhere in the happy middle.

Nanos shows a lot of change in Ontario, where the Conservatives have gained almost six points and lead with 41.9%. The Liberals are down almost eight points, to 35.7%. The NDP is up about five to 18.1%, while the Greens are down three to 4.4%.

The Bloc leads in Quebec with 38.3%, down more than two points since the beginning of September. The Liberals are up 0.4 points to 27.7%, while the Conservatives are up more than four points to 19.8%. The NDP brings up the rear with 11.2%, up 0.4 points.

The Liberals have gained more than two points in British Columbia and lead with 31.7%, one point ahead of the Conservatives (who are up 1.3 points). The NDP is down 1.4 points to 24.2%, while the Greens are down more than two points to 13.4%. This is the only area of strength for the Green Party in this poll.

In Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, the Conservatives lead with 53.4%. The Liberals follow with 29.8%, up almost six points, while the NDP is down eight to 14%.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 41%, followed by the Conservatives at 39.1% (down six).

With the results of this poll, the Conservatives would win 65 seats in the West and North, 54 in Ontario, 10 in Atlantic Canada, and eight in Quebec for a total of 137.

The Liberals would win 41 seats in Ontario, 21 in Atlantic Canada, 19 in the West and North, and 17 in Quebec for a total of 98.

The Bloc would win 49 seats in Quebec.

The NDP would win 11 seats in the West, 11 in Ontario, and one each in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

Compared to each party's current standing in the House of Commons, this would be a small reduction of the Conservative caucus and a significant culling of the NDP caucus, both to the benefit of the Liberals. But I don't think it would change the dynamics in the House very much.

It's been a busy week and the weekend should be even busier, so my report on EKOS will likely only be posted on Monday. I will also try to do a projection update next week.

40 comments:

  1. I have to disagree with your assessment that the dynamics of the house would not change.

    After a bitter campaign, if this was the result, with the Conservatives taking losses, and the Liberals moving on up, I can't imagine that Mr Harper would command the confidence of the house at a throne speech. What happens after that is a question of constitutional convention, which our new GG is well versed in, but whatever happens, even with the same election result as last time, The House will be a very different place.

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  2. Hi Eric:

    Thanks for Nanos!

    Earl

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  3. Dan F;

    How would the scenario you describe be different from the scenario facing Canada in January 2009 when, surprise, surprise, the Tories managed to gain the confidence of the house?

    In fact, to the extent there was a difference dynamic in thatscenario than there was in January 2009, it would be because the NDP had come out of an election being severely battered and bruised (as opposed to in 2008 where they made significant gains), having lost a significant chunk of their seats and taking a hit on their votes (and therefore their funding). That might be enough to convince Layton to quit as NDP leader. In that scenario the NDP might not relish entering a scenario which could lead to a quick election (i.e., an unstable minority) so they may be inclined, to prop up the Tories in exchange for nominal concessions (as they did last September) in order to give them time to rebuild their forces.

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  4. 4.9% for the Greens sounds about right to me. They got about 4.5% in the 2004 and 2006 elections, then they had a slight boomlet to 6.7% in 2008 but that was when concern about the environment was at an all time high and when Elizabeth may was a bit of a "flavour of the month" in the national media, PLUS she had all this enhanced credibility because of the Dion deal etc...

    Since that time, the environment has literally vanished as a federal political issue, May has had ZERO media profile and the Green Party has averaged 3% in byelections. The fact that the Liberals now have a leader who can speak English is likely to win back a few Green stragglers from last time too.

    I think 4.9% for the Greens is dead-on. In fact they may do even worse than that.

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  5. I totally missed this one. Thanks, Éric. And also thanks for the heads up on the Ekos delay.

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  6. On the Nanos poll, while I'm a big fan of Nanos and his methodology (his Green numbers have historically been closer to the truth than the 10+ numbers we see from other pollsters), his samples are small enough that the regional numbers have gigantic error bars on them. I wouldn't be too worried about big swings region-to-region.

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  7. DL,

    While I think it reasonable to call into question the ~10% the Greens can achieve in prompted polls, I suspect your assessment of Nanos' 4.9% as "dead-on" is unrealistic.

    This is an unprompted poll. The ballot itself will "prompt". Some voters will enter the polling station without having made a final decision and some of those may be drawn to the Green Party candidate in front of them -- it doesn't take a big swing to move from 4.9% to say 7% or so.

    "May has had ZERO media profile"

    Sure, but given that they can get 4.9% (in an unprompted poll) in the current environment, what will happen after an election campaign when most media sources will feel obligated to cover the Green Party?

    My guess is that 4.9% is more likely to be a floor for the Greens and that in an election they would do at least somewhat better.

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  8. Dan F once again you are talking about a Liberal/NDP alliance that would be 15 seats short of the Conservatives seat total. what legitimacy would they have to govern? Why would the GG appoint Iggy as PM once the Throne Speech was defeated? There is NO precedent for this! NONE!

    Would the entire opposition want to be seen as not co-operating with the government and forcing an election should the GG go the route that precedent would dictate? Not likely.

    Such action would leave the nation with a stark choice that it doesn't seem to want. Elect a CPC majority or elect enough Liberals and NDP to govern. What the polls tell us is that people are comfortable with the status quo for now.

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  9. If the Ontario numbers weren't so odd it would have been a great poll for the Liberals seeing they are fairly strong out west.

    They're gaining in the west and losing in the east.

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  10. Currently in the West/North the CPC have 71 seats plus a relatively safe seat waiting for a by-election.

    The Liberals have 8. Dr. Martin and Larry Bagnell are in serious trouble retaining their ridings.

    You predict the Liberals picking up 11 seats in the West for 19? and The CPC down 7 to make 65 and the NDP down 4 down from 15 to 11.

    You obviously have more complex calculations including the incompetent factor and past voting history and voter concentration as you have not had the Green getting as many seats as the NDP in polls where they have been tied with MOE.

    Who would you see being replaced from CPC and NDP ranks to be replaced with Liberals in the West?

    By the way Ekos has the BC polls at cpc 41, ndp 24, Liberal 16, Green 14

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  11. Nanos is very different from the EKOS. EKOS has the tories up a bit, mostly in the west. Ontario is still a tie tho and the numbers are way off Nanos-I'm guessing alot of EKOs greens are Liberals in the Nanos poll. It will be Interesting to see the seat projection from Eric-it might not change too much from the previous EKO since most of the gain is where the torie are already strong

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  12. Ira I agree.

    Its pretty offensive that EKOS gets tax payer funding to conduct polls with large sample sizes and wonky top line numbers.

    If we had a proper news marketplace (ie. no tax payer funded CBC crowding out the private market) with more competition (ie. Sun News) then we might see a decent non-EKOS pollster step up with larger sample sizes.

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  13. "Why would the GG appoint Iggy as PM once the Throne Speech was defeated? There is NO precedent for this! NONE!"

    There is no precedent for a GG NOT appointing a leader of the opposition as PM after a Throne Speech is defeated either. The whole situation is without precedent in Canadian political history - with one exception:

    In 1985 in Ontario, the PCs won the most seats with 52, the Liberals were second with 48 and the NDP had 25. The PC Throne Speech was defeated as soon as the house met after the election and the LG immediately invited opposition leader David Peterson to form a government. That is the only example we have.

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  14. "Its pretty offensive that EKOS gets tax payer funding to conduct polls with large sample sizes and wonky top line numbers."

    As far as i know the CBC pays Ekos NOTHING for their tracking surveys done by robo-calling. Polls done that way are ridiculously cheap in the first place and I think Ekos just does them for free in order to get some publicity. Any other media outlet could pay a pittance to have the same sort of superficial "who would you vote for? If Conservative press 1, Liberal press 2, NDP press 3..." type polls.

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  15. Some voters will enter the polling station without having made a final decision

    For the most part, this isn't true. Those people who are still undecided on election day overwhelmingly don't vote.

    That's part of the CPC election strategy. Some voters will simply never vote for them (single women living in urban areas, for example), so the CPC strategy with them seeks to leave them uncertain or disenchanted. That keeps those voters home, and thus lowers the bar for CPC victory in that riding.

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  16. Nanos uses a sample size of 1000

    Ekos uses a sample size of close to 3000

    Which is the more likely to be accurate?

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  17. DL nice story but there's no way to know that, the CBC is involved in a giant scandal for not answering any access to information requests.

    It certainly is NOT the industry standard to do free 3000 person tracking polling unless you're Gallup in the US.

    Robocalling might be cheaper than live interviews but it still requires electricity and last time I checked hydro rates in Ontario are through the roof.


    Even if it was done for publicity alone, that is STILL funding courtesy of the taxpayer.

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  18. Carl,

    "That might be enough to convince Layton to quit as NDP leader. In that scenario the NDP might not relish entering a scenario which could lead to a quick election (i.e., an unstable minority) so they may be inclined, to prop up the Tories in exchange for nominal concessions (as they did last September) in order to give them time to rebuild their forces."

    Carl, You know that won't cut the mustard this time. If this Prime Minister is to stave off an election, he has to come up with more than paltry crumbs to feed the New Democrats. Otherwise, it's simply not on and election here we come!!! Yipee. Yahoo.

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  19. Peter increasing your sample size makes your results more precise not more accurate.

    (That is, it decreases the + or - figure.)

    Accuracy is determined by your methodology.

    You could increase EKOS to a sample size of 10,000 and their Green numbers would ALWAYS be wrong.

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  20. Ira wrote:

    [re: last-minute decisions] "For the most part, this isn't true."

    "the most part"??? I'm not talking about _most_ people. I was specifically referring to a small fraction of voters.

    Of course most people don't behave that way. The point is, some do, some of the time.

    I have twice only made my final decision in the polling booth.

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  21. Meanwhile Sun News has dropped its demand for "Must Carry" status.

    One suspects they finally heard from the CRTC that there was absolutely no way the Board was going to grant anything like a quasi Category 1 license.

    Took a while to get the message. Pellardeu apparently finally got it.

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  22. OT: Gordon Campbell at 9%:



    http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Support+Gordon+Campbell+hits+rock+bottom/3680378/story.html

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  23. Ira : That's part of the CPC election strategy. Some voters will simply never vote for them (single women living in urban areas, for example), so the CPC strategy with them seeks to leave them uncertain or disenchanted. That keeps those voters home, and thus lowers the bar for CPC victory in that riding.

    Wouldn't the not voting single women in urban areas be more of a Liberal and NDP strategy (failure) to not offer them a positive reason to get out and vote?

    Is there any urban riding that the CPC have won due to low turnout?

    In the light of very fiscal conservative Ford making a strong showing in the most urban of urban areas there might be a case that low voter turnout is actually hurting the CPC.

    Beware of waking the silent majority :)

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  24. "Took a while to get the message. Pellardeu apparently finally got it."

    Now if only someone could inform CTV and CBC who both have cat 1.


    A free and fair market means the same rules for everyone, not special treatment for left wing broadcasters and then a public witchhunt for a proposed right of center broadcaster.

    Instead we have the worse possible outcome. Sun TV has to compete with two companies with cat 1 for the next two years until the whole thing is done away with.

    So CBC and CTV get all those years to create an established customer base and SUN TV gets nothing.


    Peter that's disgusting and unfair.

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  25. "Is there any urban riding that the CPC have won due to low turnout?"

    I think a lot of Liberals staying home helped the tories win ridings like North vancouver, West vancouver, St. Boniface and a few seats in the outer GTA.

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  26. In a word "BULLSHIT" !!

    You and SUN lost !! Accept it.

    Your mewling and puking when you don't win only show the depths of your ideology.

    CRTC stated in 2008 it would NOT give out any more Category 1 until 2012.

    But your pet "ignorance unlimited" channel thought it could beat the rules.

    You LOST !! Accept it and move on !!

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  27. DL in all the ridings you mentioned the Tories actually GAINED voters even while turnout was falling.

    Looking at Pundits and operating under the INCREDIBLY unlikely assumption that every voter who stayed home in '08 but voted in '06 was a Liberal the CPC would still have won St. Boniface and West Vancouver.

    North Vancouver would have been a narrow Liberal win.


    Since there is no way that 100% of recent non-voters are disaffected Liberals this whole turnout argument is pretty WEAK.

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  28. Shadow

    If Moon TV asked for a Category 1 license for a news channel pushing left and extreme Left views you would be amongst the FIRST to scream and rant about "Canadian" values. Yet you know less about them than the average citizen !!

    As to CBC and CTV get used to the fact they were grandfathered at least two decades ago.

    Further why should a network publicly funded by the Govt. not have a mandatory carry ?? No matter what you say it will be illogical !!

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  29. Peter you don't seem to understand the meaning of free and fair.

    Never mind. Its obvious you have a bizarre hatred for Sun TV.

    But I caution you that nobody has "lost" anything yet, we don't know what kind of ratings Sun TV are going to get.

    I wouldn't be surprised if they end up getting better ratings than CTV/CBC COMBINED despite a massive, unfair, disgusting tax payer subsidy to those networks.


    Regardless, Jan 1st Sun TV is a GO!

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  30. Peter however much you may disagree with Shadow, your response would suggest that you are unable to control some kind of irrational anger. Please try and control your anger so the rest of us don't have to read your vulgarities.

    Shadow has lost nothing. Sun TV on the other hand has withdrawn its request for its News Channel to receive special treatment. I doubt that a Sun TV news channel will prosper in Canada and if Canadians could choose the channels they want to watch, it would die a quick and quiet death.

    While I don't think we need another "News Channel", I do believe that Quebecor every right to have one.

    Ideally Canada's airwaves would be free of regulation except for the allocation of frequencies and some regulation of program content - pornography.

    That the CRTC mandates what I have to watch and what I can't watch is repugnant, particularly in a free society.

    Finally I would urge you to "get used to it". The CRTC will soon be much more limited in its functions and the chains removed from Canada's broadcasters and our airways.

    I should not have to purchase "bundles of channels" from my cable or satellite provider and should be able to choose and pay for only the channels I wish to watch. Then I wouldn't have two hundred channels on my TV and nothing to watch as those channels that are carried by the popular channels would cease to exist. It's coming and sooner than you think.

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  31. Earl I don't think its fair to say that Sun TV was asking for "special treatment" when it was asking to be treated the exact SAME way as our other two all news channels.

    My preference would be the same as yours. Abolish all bundles, abolish all must carry.

    Let the consumer pick each channel individually.


    But I think it would be extremely fair for Sun TV to be granted a two year cat 1 license because CTV newsnet and CBC newsworld both have them.

    Either everyone gets them or nobody does.

    THAT'S what fair.

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  32. "Sun TV on the other hand has withdrawn its request for its News Channel to receive special treatment."

    Precisely Earl and the key phrase there is "special treatment" !

    Because if you follow Shadow's logic that a new News channel should get the "Must Carry" then Al Jazeera should have to. Would only be "Fair" after all, eh.

    "I should not have to purchase "bundles of channels" from my cable or satellite provider and should be able to choose and pay for only the channels I wish to watch. "

    Guess what?? That's nothing to do with the CRTC and everything to do with Big Corp. In this case the cable and satellite boys. They set the rules for that not the CRTC.

    It's the same for the Internet, Big Corp screws us regularly and the CRTC rules and Bell etc tell them to stuff it !!

    Incidentally if you want total ability to select then you have to go "over the air" !!

    By the way watch out for Net TV. It's coming and it will not be a bundles thing.

    "Peter however much you may disagree with Shadow, your response would suggest that you are unable to control some kind of irrational anger."

    No it would indicate I'm fed up with his inability to see any other viewpoint than the one mandated by the PMO and friends. Minus the "Special Treatment" Sun TV may not even get on the air !! Certainly I agree with your premise that it won't do well.

    Will it get the license?? Nov 19 is the hearing day. Then we'll know.

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  33. Ronald:

    "Carl, You know that won't cut the mustard this time. If this Prime Minister is to stave off an election, he has to come up with more than paltry crumbs to feed the New Democrats. Otherwise, it's simply not on and election here we come!!! Yipee. Yahoo."

    Why not? The NDP had consistently opposed the Tories up until the fall of 2009, before reversing course in the face of polling numbers which suggested that they'd get hammered if an election were called. If they end up getting hammered in the next election (such that they lose a significant chunk of seats and votes), they're not going to be eager to do anything that'll trigger a new election quickly.

    Despite their rhetoric the NDP has always been pretty good about throwing their weight around when they think they can get something (anything).

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  34. Peter there is no Canadian Al Jazzaera.

    On Jan.1st we will have three nationwide, Canadian all news stations.

    2 of them will have cat 1, 1 of them won't.


    Again, the definition of the word "fair" seems to escape you.

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  35. Shadow: Peter there is no Canadian Al Jazzaera.

    Strictly speaking, that's true. However, there is most definitely a Canadian Al Jazeera.

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  36. Thanks John

    Again it shows Shadow never checks facts just the PMO spin

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  37. No John and Peter there is an english version of Al Jazeera which broadcasts in Canada as well as other english speaking countries around the world.

    It has next to nothing in the way of Canadian content or production values.

    Where as Sun TV, unlike CBC/CTV, promises to be 100% CanCon.


    Peter, it is clearly YOU who needs to check your facts.

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  38. Shadow: [T]here is an english version of Al Jazeera which broadcasts in Canada as well as other english speaking countries around the world.

    It has next to nothing in the way of Canadian content or production values.


    AJE plans to open a Toronto bureau in June to begin its coverage of Canadian news.

    Same link as above. Sometimes it's worth reading those thingies before pontificating.

    And regardless of CanCon, it's still the Canadian Al Jazeera. A bold attempt to reframe, but an ultimately unsuccessful one.

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  39. A bold attempt to reframe, but an ultimately unsuccessful one.

    Which pretty much describes all Shadow's comments !!

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  40. John you seem hopeless unfamiliar with the news industry.

    CTV news has a London Bureau. Does that make them a British channel ?

    According to wiki:

    "Al Jazeera English ... is a 24-hour English-language news and current affairs TV channel headquartered in Doha, Qatar."

    Al Jazzeera English is rebroadcast around the world, it is NOT produced or centered in Canada in any way:

    http://english.aljazeera.net/watchaje/20091022172112636517.html


    Hey John and Peter I can watch Fox News from my satellite in Canada !!

    I had no idea they were a Canadian station!

    (Obvious sarcasm. Get the facts right please.)

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