Thursday, October 28, 2010

Stability in new EKOS poll, Tory advantage

While on the face of it the new EKOS poll shows relatively little change at the national level, what we really see is that the political voting intentions of Canadians have snapped back to what they were two weeks ago, after the race tightened in the interim.Take the Conservative lead, for example. Two weeks ago, EKOS reported the party's national support at 34.4%, and now it is at 33.9%. That's a drop of 0.5 points, relatively insignificant, but in between the Tories sank to 30.9%.

It's a similar situation for the Liberals, who are unchanged at 27.8%. But a week ago the Liberals had gained 1.6 points and stood at 29.4%, a mere 1.5 points behind the Conservatives.

The New Democrats, however, have not snapped back so violently. From 15.9% the party sank to 13.9% a week ago. Today, EKOS has them at 15.1%. While that is a gain of 1.2 points in the last week, the party is still 0.8 points behind their standing two weeks ago.

The Bloc Québécois is at 9.3% national support while the Greens are up to 11.6%, 1.2 points higher than they were two weeks ago.

The Conservatives are performing well in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, in addition to their western strongholds. In Alberta, the party leads with 60.3%. The Liberals are well behind at 17.6%, but are at 21.8% in Calgary. The Conservatives lead in that city with 65.2%.

The Tories are also well in front in the Prairies, with 42.4% support. The Liberals have gained six points from two weeks ago and trail with 26%. The NDP is down nine points to 12.4%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead with 37.3% but the Conservatives are up seven points to 34%. That gain seems to have come off the backs of the NDP, who are down 15 points to only 16.4%.

And in Ontario, the Conservatives have gained three points and lead with 40.9%. The Liberals are down one to 35.5% and the NDP is stable with 14.3%. The Greens have dropped one to 8.5%.

But before anyone gets too excited about the "Rob Ford Effect", it should be noted that the Liberals lead in Toronto with 48.4%. The Conservatives are running second with 35.7% in the city.

Conversely, the Conservatives are leading with 51.1% in Ottawa, where provincial Liberal Jim Watson was just elected mayor.

There are some trouble spots for the Tories, however. In British Columbia, the party has dropped 10 points and leads with only 31.3%, followed by the NDP at 26.6% (up three), the Greens at 20.1% (up five), and the Liberals at 19.2% (up three). The race is also tight in Vancouver, where the Conservatives have 30.5% support compared to 26% for the Liberals.

The Bloc Québécois is doing well in Quebec with 36.9% support, though that is down from the 45.3% support the party had a week ago. The Liberals have dropped two points and stand at 21.8%, well ahead of the Greens at 13%, the Conservatives at 12.3% (down two), and the NDP at 12.1% (up two). The Bloc leads comfortably in Montreal with 36.8%, followed by the Liberals at 22.7%.

With the results of this poll, the Conservatives would win 55 seats in Ontario, 27 in Alberta, 20 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 17 in British Columbia, nine in Atlantic Canada, three in Quebec, and one in the North for a total of 132. That is a loss of two seats compared to EKOS's poll two weeks ago, but the gain of seven in Ontario is a good omen for the Tories.

The Liberals would win 41 seats in Ontario, 20 in Atlantic Canada, 17 in Quebec, seven in British Columbia, six in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, two in the North, and one in Alberta for a total of 94. That is a gain of two seats, but the loss of six in Ontario is bad news.

The Bloc would win 54 seats in Quebec, buoyed by the weakness of its opposition.

The New Democrats would win 11 seats in British Columbia, 10 in Ontario, three in Atlantic Canada, two in the Prairies, and one in Quebec for a total of 27. That is two seats less than two weeks ago. Their loss of three seats in Atlantic Canada hurts them.

The Greens would win one seat in British Columbia.

The Conservatives have begun to move away from the Liberals, after a few weeks of a closer race. But their gap is still tenuous, and the week-to-week results in Ontario and British Columbia indicate that an election campaign could be very volatile in these two battleground provinces. If the Conservatives want to make gains as compared to their current standing in the House of Commons, however, they need to rebuild some bridges in Quebec. The Liberals, meanwhile, need to desperately drag the Conservatives down from their summit in Ontario.

Voting intentions still seem to be pretty set, however, with no major trends or movements in any part of the country. It may take an election campaign or some unexpected event to make people budge.

30 comments:

  1. Peter: "Angus-Reid is out to lunch.
    Let's see what Ekos says tomorrow?"

    As usual.... you are wrong. When you go to eric's house effects, (which show the differences between firms by averaging them) .... you get the same 8 point Tory lead as the average.

    In the context of the top line numbers as they apply to differences between firms.... these 2 polls are as exactly as accurate as they usually are in relation to each other.


    But accuracy of a firm is a different thing than the relativity between them.

    Why eric weights the polls he gets this way (too).

    http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2008/10/weighting-system.html


    Angus Reid. being more accurate than Ekos.... Should pull that 8 point average closer to a 9 point spread between the tories and the liberals.

    Add to that the trendline from both EKOS and AR (as shadow said the gap changed +3 to the tories over the last month).

    I think that this is a pretty good set of polls this week for the Tories.

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  2. Peter: "Ekos is out, Stagnation is best description."

    Stagnation? a couple weeks ago we were talking about how the tory gains were in places they wouldn't count for anything because they were on top of already supermajorities.

    Well this week the top line numbers didn't move. (I guess you are right as far as the tippy-top of the analysis. But lets actually look at what happened.)

    And what happened, is that the tories dropped the extra useless gain from last week but pulled off a 5 point spread in Ontario. 41-36. (or as AR put it.. 9 point spread) (2008 election was 5 point spread)

    Now I don't know exactly how the numbers in Ontario are split up. (census says about Ontario people live in Toronto and Ottawa (5-1 toronto),.. but ekos prolly split different) but 48% for the liberals in Toronto, and 41% in Ottawa....Backed off to an average of 36% across the province? That would probably put them at 24% outside the 2 main cities. (same calcualtion for tories =43% outside of toronto/ottawa regions)


    I'm thinking that's not good news after a fancy bus tour all over is it?



    Now in BC the tories dropped 10 points divied to all the other parties.... The NDP dropped 8 in Sask, The greens broke 20% in BC, And thats only the 2 week version, the week in between had a 1 point spread (not 5), and the NDP a full point lower than this week.

    Stagnant?

    The only thing that is stagnant this week Peter. Is your hatred of the tories, and inability to see past it.

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  3. The "Rob Ford effect" in Toronto would have more to do with a hugely successful Conservative campaign machine. Nothing like a win to energize the party volunteers.

    That and the impact of actually voting for the far right candidate and winning and removing the stigma attached really opens up Toronto to potential CPC gains next federal election.

    It seems that in Ottawa and Vaughn the incumbent mayors got turfed due to shaddy ethical problems (an area the federal Liberals own ... unless the Quebec Liberals take the lead).

    The Toronto race would be an obvious shift to the right as Miller was not obvious corrupt.

    In Winnipeg the anger at incumbents trend that the media is trying to sell did not have an impact. Right wing) Katz soundly defeated the socialist super star Judy W-L.

    Again the pollster were wrong outside the MOE calling it a dead heat going in

    In Calgary the people stayed the course with a left of center (compared to the right wing opponents) replacement for Bronconnier.

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  4. Judy's loss in Winnipeg is good news for the CPC in their upcoming by-eleciton.

    On top of good regional polling news lately.

    Winnipeg North is a three way race. That means you have a strong Liberal eating into NDP support which might just allow the CPC candidate to come up the middle.

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  5. Liberal Dictatorship? Where has democracy gone in this great land of ours?

    http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/10/27/don-martin-ottawas-big-red-control-freaks/

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  6. Good read by Jim Travers. Appropriate for our times.

    http://www.thestar.com/article/881986--travers-voters-have-every-right-to-punish-politicians

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  7. Barks

    Stagnation because the numbers barely changed.

    Surely you can understand that !

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  8. Regardless of which poll you think is "right", the real question is, are the Liberals willing to force an election given these polling numbers?

    On the one hand, the Tories had no problem pulling the pin on the Paul Martin government in 2005, despite being behind by 4-8 points in the polls. Then again, the Martin Liberals were a dying government weighted down by the sponsorship scandal. The current Liberals aren't so lucky (not yet at least).

    On the other hand, the current Liberals have only shown themselves to be ready for a fight when they think the polls favour them (think June and September 2009 or, in contrast, March 2010). And they seem to have lost whatever momentum they had coming out of what was generally seen as a positive summer. I was betting on a March election, and the Tories may still try to force one then, but now, I'm not so sure the Liberals will rise to the occasion.

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  9. "Liberal Dictatorship? Where has democracy gone in this great land of ours?..."

    Don Martin is an idiot. His comparison is incredibly stupid. Martin speaks out on a topic that even the CPC doesn't advocate publicly let alone the LPC, while Bernier speaks on out on something that the CPC's base kinda actually wants.

    I'll bite that the LPC is trying to become like the CPC in this regard, but I don't see any examples where the CPC is allowed to divide itself on a motion like the LPC did with the mining bill. Nor do I buy the National Post as particularly interested in Ruby Dhalla's dignity. (Which is just one part of the hypocrisy at exhibit there with this)

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  10. Also, I don't see the LPC as trying to force an election without poll numbers far superior to anything they've seen since Iggy last tried it. I think they may have realised they need a particular issue first.

    Likewise I don't see the CPC as really wanting to roll the dice to get the same result or worse.

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  11. Carl I would be more worried about Ignatieff quitting because under the current circumstances Harper gets to govern like he has a majority.

    Ignatieff is the best sales tool for the CPC out there.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Harper prorogued parliament this winter to help Ignatieff.

    (Plus it would give our new GG a chance to do a throne speech.)

    All of these fake scandals give the Liberals false hope and help Ignatieff hold on to the leadership.


    However, underneath the short term shifts in voter preferences is a framework essentially unchanged from the 2008 election - a CPC party on the very cusp of a majority.

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  12. "Barks
    Stagnation because the numbers barely changed.
    Surely you can understand that !"

    ------------------------------


    Thanks Petey *pats little guy on head*...


    The point was tho..... that they did.

    Surely you can understand that!


    Or maybe you can go watch sesame street and do some learning about "Same" and "Different"

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  13. The very annoying Dipper Ryan Cleary resigned as the NDP candidate in St. John's South Mount Pearl yesterday! This will lead to a very easy win for Siobhan Coady in the next election.

    http://fishermansroad.blogspot.com/

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  14. "I wouldn't be surprised if Harper prorogued parliament this winter to help Ignatieff.

    (Plus it would give our new GG a chance to do a throne speech.)"

    I'd be very surprised to see that. More likely would be to see a budget with deficit figures far better than expected larded with measures that are near and dear to Tory hearts, which the Tories will use to dare the Liberals to defeat them. A heads we win, tails you lose kinda scenario.


    But I wouldn't be betting on Iggy quitting if I were you. He'll get his election, just like Dion did. But if the result of that election isn't much better than 80-90 odd seats, he might not be around long after that.

    What the Liberals really need is some new blood. I mean, Iggy's 63 for gawd's sake. He just doesn't have time to play the long-game that the Liberals need to rebuild their party. The problem is that the Federal Liberals have become a party of old men (probably because Trudeau governed for so long, he pushed back the succession for a generation). Chretien was 59 when he came to power, Martin was 65, Iggy was 62 (and Rae, who is for now, the only other real contendeder is roughly the same age).

    Contrast that with some (all) of the other recent heavy hitters in Canadian politics - Mike Harris was 50 when he came to power, McGuinty was 48, Charest was 45, Harper was 47, Mulroney was 45, Gordon Campbell was 53, Klein was 50. It's not that oldersters can't be effective leaders, it's just that they don't have the luxury of time. Of that list all but Mulroney and Klein took an election beating or two before they came to power (Harris in 1990, McGuinty in '99, Campbell in '96, Charest in '98, Harper in '04). Their relative youth meant that they had the time to gain experience from their losses and rebuilt their party.

    In some sense, the best thing that could happen to the Liberals would be for them to boot Iggy, replace him with Justin Trudeau, and just punt the next election. It would mean that the Tories would win a majority in the next election, but it would also give the Liberals 5 years of breathing room to rebuilt themselves and become competitive again. They won't, though. They'll fight and lose the next election, replace Iggy with Rae, wash, rince, repeat.

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  15. Carl: I was betting on a March election, and the Tories may still try to force one then, but now, I'm not so sure the Liberals will rise to the occasion.

    What exactly will it take for the Liberals to go for it? I predicted a fall election (later sharpened to November) starting in the spring. I laid out the steps through which Ignatieff could celebrate Christmas in 24 Sussex, barring a campaign executed so disastrously as to hand Harper a majority.

    I was wrong.

    The bellicose harbingers of an election have been silent. We would have been hearing war drums weeks ago if an election were in the works. Those signs will stay in my garage for at least another winter. And if Ignatieff won't move now, why should we expect him to do so in the spring?

    2012, anyone?

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  16. Fine moments in the journalistic integrity and knowledge at the CBC

    http://www.cbc.ca/asithappens/episode/2010/10/26/tuesday-october-26-2010/


    "Up against a Wall. If the government wants to sell Saskatchewan's Potash Corporation, it will have to contend with the province's premier, Brad Wall."

    ..... . . .. . ... I wonder if the research department needs to be told such factoids like...... Not only has the (Saskatchewan) government not owned the company for 21 years.... The federal government? Has never had an ownership stake in it.


    But I guess that doesn't fit the "Evil conservative" narrative. I wonder how the polls would change with a less biased viewpoint coming from the media-like CBC.

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  17. "What exactly will it take for the Liberals to go for it?"


    well:

    "The 41st Canadian federal election is tentatively scheduled for October 15, 2012"

    Maybe Iggy will organize a confidence vote for the last day of the spring session in 2012 so they he can say it is on his terms? lol (he'll probably still lose that vote even...lmao)


    .... That is, unless Harper decides to ask the GG if we can go to the polls earlier....

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  18. Carl its a huge investment to buy all those media ads demonizing Liberal leaders.

    It worked twice but a third time ? Even I will start rolling my eyes.

    I read reports of Ignatieff being depressed and unsatisfied last winter. He was thinking of quitting but instead he brought in Donolo.

    Then the story by Travers about lining up a prize teaching gig. (It won't sit vacant for long.)

    And the continual caucus murmurs about Ignatieff in utter disbelief that Canadians don't see how horrid Harper is and why his own poll numbers aren't better.


    Liberals always get a bump when they bring in a fresh face.

    A last minute bait and switch would be a real headache.

    I would rather Harper keep stringing him along by letting the opposition and media indulge in their made up scandals and so called self inflicted wounds.

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  19. "What the Liberals really need is some new blood. I mean, Iggy's 63 for gawd's sake. He just doesn't have time to play the long-game that the Liberals need to rebuild their party. The problem is that the Federal Liberals have become a party of old men (probably because Trudeau governed for so long, he pushed back the succession for a generation). Chretien was 59 when he came to power, Martin was 65, Iggy was 62 (and Rae, who is for now, the only other real contendeder is roughly the same age)."

    I think a more likely successor would be Dominic LeBlanc. I read a little while ago about how impressive he was during his short time in the leadership race in 2008. He's an Acadian which may play well in Quebec without pissing off anti-Quebeckers, he's young and he had support from both the Chretien and Martin camp in 2008. I also doubt Harper would be able to dig up dirt on him like he was able to win Ignatieff.

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  20. Barks

    "The point was tho..... that they did.

    Surely you can understand that!


    Or maybe you can go watch sesame street and do some learning about "Same" and "Different""

    Maybe you ought to stop watching. To all intents and purposes the numbers did not change.

    Dropping 0.5 with an MOE of 3 means NO change. You are nothing but a Tory shill.

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  21. Re: Barcs and the CBC

    What's weird is the transcript below gets it correct. If wasn't so good as jumping to conclusions I'd consider the possibility the one sentence lead-in saying 'sell' instead of 'allow sale of' is just a minor error. Someone should probably be fired over that one.

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  22. Red Tory Liberal,

    You are 100% right. Dominic LeBlanc is by far the best choice for the next Liberal leader. I thought so during the last Liberal leadership race, so I'm not Monday morning Quarter-backing.

    I think Carl was trying to trick you. Congrats for not buying it.

    Free advice for the Liberals:

    Be very cautious when putting Justin Trudeau in high places. His recent appearance on CTVs "Question Period" was grating.

    I think he takes after his father ideology-wise (to a fault, it's not 1970 anymore), but takes after his mother when it comes to gravitas, panache, and intellectual heft.

    I gave him a good chance to prove himself, as I respected the way he got elected, but watching him debate is painful. He needs to grow up. I wouldn't elect him dogcatcher right now.

    A high profile Justin Trudeau will be a boon to the Conservatives for years to come.

    Put me on the record with that prediction.

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  23. Carl,

    Interesting question why Liberal leaders are currently so old. I don't think it was Trudeau that has to do with it (he retired 26 years ago, plenty of time for new people to come around).

    I think it really has to do with the ten-year stint of Paul Martin as Prime Minister in waiting. John Manley, Allan Rock, and all those other people who at one point thought about the leadership were never able to put together real organizations because the Paul Martin camp was (a) so dominant, and (b) so willing to try to destroy their careers if they tried. So they just gave up. Sheila Copps tried, but completely failed and was essentially forced out of the party. Now, not a single Chretien cabinet minister is considered a potential leadership contender-- pretty striking considering they were in power for a decade.

    If Iggy were to go, I'd like to see John Manley in his place. Sure, he looks like Beaker, but he's got a decade of cabinet experience, has both finance and foreign affairs experience, and generally supported Chretien's better ideas. The only bad decision he made was trying to subsidize the NHL (something that 9 Quebec Tory MPs essentially endorsed a few weeks ago).

    ReplyDelete
  24. http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/10/29/don-martin-liberal-senator-shreds-ignatieffs-position-on-f-35s/

    Prominent Liberal Senator on why the fighter purchase is the right thing to do.

    ReplyDelete
  25. AJR79: I just picked Trudeau's name out of hat, Leblanc would probably be a better choice for actual leader (though I wouldn't count on the Liberals recognizing that).

    GI:

    I think you can still trace the Liberal's problems back to Trudeau. I mean, by the time he actually retired in 1984, his two leading successors (Turner and Chretien) were 55 and 50, respectively. Most of the other political heavy hitters I mentioned above had finally taken power by that time (or at least were darn close). By the time Turner got his second shake at PM (in '88), he was 59, as was Chretien when he finally got a chance to have a crack at PM in 1993. Essentially, by staying around as long as he did, Trudeau, pushed all his successors back a generation.

    That said, you're right that the Chretien/Martin infighting did a lot to drain any new blood from the Liberal party. Still that battle was in many ways a continuation of the infighting between Turner and Chretien in the 1980s's. I can't help but wonder if, in each case, there wasn't a generational issue there (apart from any ideological ones), with the younger man (Chretien, then Martin) feeling that it was "his" turn to lead and that he was cheated by the older man hanging around past his time. I suspect Martin's systematic slaughtering of potential rivals was driven by a concern that, by the time Chretien retired, he'd be seen as too old (like his father's leadership bid in '68).

    Finally, I agree that Manley would be a good pick. For that reason alone, I doubt the Grits would pick him. However, I suspect he's seen as being ideologically compromised by his fellow Liberals as a result of his cooption by the Conservatives on Afghanistan. Plus, he's 60.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Barcs,

    "Fine moments in the journalistic integrity and knowledge at the CBC

    http://www.cbc.ca/asithappens/episode/2010/10/26/tuesday-october-26-2010/


    "Up against a Wall. If the government wants to sell Saskatchewan's Potash Corporation, it will have to contend with the province's premier, Brad Wall."

    ..... . . .. . ... I wonder if the research department needs to be told such factoids like...... Not only has the (Saskatchewan) government not owned the company for 21 years.... The federal government? Has never had an ownership stake in it.


    But I guess that doesn't fit the "Evil conservative" narrative. I wonder how the polls would change with a less biased viewpoint coming from the media-like CBC."

    Come on Barcs -- it's a deadly combination of mediocrity in hiring and sloppy reporting. The Mother Corp. is losing the shine on her halo...

    ReplyDelete
  27. AJR79,

    "You are 100% right. Dominic LeBlanc is by far the best choice for the next Liberal leader. I thought so during the last Liberal leadership race, so I'm not Monday morning Quarter-backing."

    My two favourite Liberals are LeBlanc and Marc Garneau. I'll just leave it at that for now!

    ReplyDelete
  28. Carl,

    "Finally, I agree that Manley would be a good pick. For that reason alone, I doubt the Grits would pick him. However, I suspect he's seen as being ideologically compromised by his fellow Liberals as a result of his cooption by the Conservatives on Afghanistan. Plus, he's 60."

    Bingo! Nail right on the head. Congratulations. (In that context, might as well run E-M-E-R-S-O-N...)

    ReplyDelete
  29. Ron:

    "My two favourite Liberals are LeBlanc and Marc Garneau. I'll just leave it at that for now!"

    I'll throw one other name in, Frank Mckenna. Probably too old but has the skill set.

    ReplyDelete

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