Friday, December 4, 2009

New BC Poll: 16-pt Conservative Lead

A very observant blog reader pointed out this poll by Innovative Research of the federal voting intentions in BC. It was found in a poll about the dining habits of British Columbians.I had to adjust for the undecideds and refusals, but we get a strong Conservative lead. Nevertheless, the Tories still aren't doing as well as they need to.

This poll would give the Tories 22 seats, the Liberals would take nine, and the NDP would take five.

As the poll was taken in mid-November, it is a little dated. However, it is a demonstration why I shouldn't jump the gun with my monthly summaries!

28 comments:

  1. Eric,

    Far more interesting numbers, if correct, are the provincial ones.

    (The fact that they are so unusual gives me slight pause as to both them and the federal numbers so hopefully we'll see another pollster soon.)

    But the Conservative party! Provincially, out of nowhere!

    Its such an unusual turn of events that could easily destroy the NDP's chances of forming the next gov't and cause the destruction of Campbell's Liberals, if true.

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  2. I'll post about those results in the coming days. I like to keep provincial polls for slow days. My priority list goes: 1) federal polls immediately, 2) projection updates, 3) posts of interest (like the monthly summaries, etc.), 4) provincial polls.

    I'll only post multiple times if there are multiple federal polls in a day, otherwise I post one per day (and one per weekend).

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  3. I note that the Dippers and Liberals are tied at 23%. I am sure you have a vote distribution model that would explain that with the same support, the Liberals are projected here to win almost double the seats.

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  4. "But the Conservative party! Provincially, out of nowhere!"

    ummm....I believe this is a poll on federal voting preferences of British Columbians - not provincial where the BC Conservatives are typically in low single digits.

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  5. The Innovative Research figures are virtually "in sync" with Eric's BC projection.

    One must remember that BC Liberal support is "concentrated" in the City of Vancouver, the North Shore and Richmond on the South Shore.

    NDP support is generally spread thin throughout BC equally and that lends to the Liberals in BC garnering a larger proportion of the seats than the NDP, even if they are tied in their share of the BC vote.

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  6. DL - Innovative Research for BC provincially (factoring out the undecideds), you essentially have:

    BC Provincial:

    NDP - 35%
    Lib - 31%
    PC - 19%
    Green - 15%

    Carole James has a big credibility problem in BC and those who do not like the HST seem to be parking their vote with the PC's, BIG TIME.

    The NDP in BC is viewed as a "tax and spend" party, NOT an "anti-tax" party.

    And with disgraced Moe Sihota now BC NDP party president look for the NDP numbers to continue to tank.

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  7. DL,

    The numbers above are the ones I was refering to, they had been posted in a previous thread.

    You're very correct that BC Con numbers have been something like 2, 7 in the most recent polls.

    So a jump to 19 in a leaderless party is pretty huge.

    In fact it'll probably attract at least one top notch leadership candidates if numbers like that continue.

    Anon is perfectly right that the NDP have zero credibility as an anti-tax part. A Conservative option, however, does.

    People will trust them to roll back the carbon tax and eliminate the PST.

    Finally a right wing party in BC, as opposed to left and lefter.

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  8. How much credibility does a BC Conservative Party have on being against the HST when the HST is being rammed down everyone's throats by the federal Conservative party?

    The HST could be nipped in the bud instantly if Harper and Flaherty decide to.

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  9. "NDP support is generally spread thin throughout BC equally and that lends to the Liberals in BC garnering a larger proportion of the seats than the NDP, even if they are tied in their share of the BC vote."

    You are both right and wrong. Its true that BC Liberal support tends to be more concentrated in rich ridings on the north shore and Richmond and the Fraser Valley etc... but this is why the NDP vote is actually MORE efficient in terms of seats. The Liberals (and also the Tories federally) tend to have a lot of "wasted votes" because they pile up huge majorities in places like Abbotsford and langley and Richmond and Kelowna - while if the provincewide popular vote is even, the NDP tends to win a ton of marginal seats by consistent narrow margins. This was how the NDP won a majority in 1996 despite having slightly feweer votes than the BC Liberals.

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  10. DL,

    Considering a representative of the BC Conservative party was on CTV's question period over the weekend attacking the HST I assume they have perfect credibility.

    Sorry if this goes against your NDP will take over because of the HST story line!

    But actual right wingers have been looking for a place to vote for some time now because Gordon Campbell has been so far left.

    PS - People aren't idiots. They know the difference between provincial and federal politics.

    Every ten seconds the BC Liberals point out they are not associated with the LPC and vice versa.

    All through the last election whenever there was any mention of the BC Conservative party it was bracketed with (no affiliation with the Tories in Ottawa) or something to that effect.

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  11. DL - In BC, social Conservative Bill Vander Zalm is leading the fight against the HST.

    And interim BC Conservative party leader Chris Delaney has also been on the national CTV network in denunciation against the HST.

    As for the NDP's "Tax and Spend" image in BC, remember that Jack Layton came out against the reduction of the GST from 7% to 5% in principle last year.

    Otherwise BC would be facing a 14% HST and Ontario a 15% HST!

    At least in BC, people don't place much credibilty on the NDP's anti-HST stance particularly when they have governed in the opposite direction.

    Yes the BC Conservative surge is quite a surprising dynamic. It will be interesting to see if that phenomena "has legs" over time.

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  12. Just a note that this provincial poll is at odds with the Mustel and AR polls, so I wouldn't consider the BC Conservatives as soon-to-be front-runners just yet.

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  13. DL - I'm referring to BC "federal" Liberal support. Again, BC federal Liberal support is concentrated in the City of Vancouver, the north shore and Richmond on the south shore.

    They also have other areas of vote concentration such as urban Victoria as well as the Sikh community in the Newton part of Surrey (Sukh Dhaliwals' seat).

    The federal NDP, OTOH, either wins or comes in second behind the CPC in most other ridings in BC.

    As such, the federal NDP support in BC is spreed much thinner than the federal Liberals. The 2006 results in BC should speak for themselves.

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  14. Eric, you're correct. The BC Conservatives will not be a contender for anything in the end... doubtful if even a single seat. The last time that they held a single BC legislative seat was party leader Vic Stephens in 1979.

    Mustel doesn't "vote prompt" for party preferences and has the BC CPC at 5% and ARS has the CPC at 7%.

    Innovative Research likely has the BC CPC a tad too high and it's still "very soft" vote parking.

    Nevertheless an interesting dynamic to watch in terms of future potential provincial "vote parking".

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  15. Eric,

    Was this poll taken later than the other two? If so that could explain the difference.

    Anon,

    This poll gives the option of don't know.

    Doesn't that seem like a pretty good parking space? In a way that seems to cancel out the prompting problem and people just looking for an alternative to Libs/NDP.

    So with undecideds you have 14% BC Con.

    That sounds perfectly reasonable.

    As for their future prospects - its way too soon to say.

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  16. It was taken during the same time period.

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  17. The other think that could happen is that if you ask people how they would vote in a federal election (Liberal, NDP, Conservative or Green) and then you ask about provincial politics immediately afterwards with the exact same choice of parties - you might get a lot more cross-pollination than usual.

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  18. Check out this new poll on Ontario provincial preferences from Angus Reid:

    PC - 41%, Libs 27%, NDP 20%, Greens 11%

    http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/2009.12.04_HST_Ontario.pdf

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  19. Eric,

    Hmm, same general time period yes. Although very different methods, AR two nights, Mustel two weeks in the field, Innovative five nights but including two weekend dates. Prompting, not prompting. Innovative offering the don't know option.

    Well they can't all be right then.

    At this stage polling has more impact on perception than anything else, since an election is so far away.

    Still good news for the BC Cons getting that number out there, I wouldn't be surprised if they e-mailed it around a fair bit.

    I tend to agree with Anon though, I really only see them winning two or three seats, maybe the Greens breaking through with one or two this time around, maybe even a minority Liberal or NDP gov't. It feels like a scrambled electorate out there, with an anti-incumbent mood and a desire to try something completely different.

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  20. "How much credibility does a BC Conservative Party have on being against the HST when the HST is being rammed down everyone's throats by the federal Conservative party?"


    One wonders how much credibility people have when they cannot tell the difference between a decade old policy allowing provinces to take advantage of federal tax laws.... and the "evil scary right winger" they keep blaming stuff like today's weather

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  21. DL I'm not surprised. There is angery reaction in ON to the HST. The fact that it will be just over one year old when we next go to polls won't help the Liberals. Unless Hudak messes up big time ON will move right even though the HST can't be reversed in Hudak's first term. The reaction will IMO be much like the repudiation of the PC's after they introduced the GST. Here are some findings on the HST from the same poll:

    http://www.visioncritical.com/2009/12/ontarians-decidedly-oppose-hst-foresee-higher-prices/

    I doubt that McGuinty will run again and top provincial Liberals are leaving. We could see a PC government with the NDP as the official opposition. It's just possible that if Andrea Horvath plays her cards right and promises to end the HST in 2016 she could be the winner in the 2015 election. I don't expect Hudak's policies will sit much better than did Mike Harris's with Ontarions. So there's the good news for the NDP.

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  22. Earl,

    Don't be surprised if a PC or NDP government don't bother to repeal the HST.

    It would be insane to do so.

    "Hey let's hire a bunch of provincial tax collectors (who's wages will be paid by taxpayers) and double the paperwork that bussiness needs to do (the cost of which will be passed on to consumers)."

    Do you really see anyone doing it? Do YOU think it would be a good move?

    I'm guessing the NDP would just increase the rebates going to poor families and the PC would just reduce the rate by 1% and that would be the end of the discussion.

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  23. Jesse you could well be right. However I do expect that should discontent smolder over the HST and remembering that 5 years is a long time, if the NDP can become the provincial opposition, then an appeal to roll back an unpopular tax like the HST could be a winner. Of course, the NDP would have to show as the official opposition that it is ready to govern. That would mean becoming less anti-business and less tied to its causes.

    Bob Rae did several things that annihilated his popularity. He might have survived had he not brought in photo radar, something else that was despised by Ontarians. In the waning days of his administration a law was passed that would have required all businesses with more than fifty employees to create a workplace that reflected the community around them. That is employees of the business would have to be an approximation of race and handicapped that reflected the proportions in the community around the workplace. The plan was to extend this to all businesses with more than 10 employees down the line. To many of us this seemed to much like big brother. There were other utopian measures as well. Harris repealed all of these acts in a single omnibus bill. While these laws were important to the NDP hard core they were as offensive to most of us as Harris's later acts to strip health and education spending.

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  24. Jesse would it be a good move? Well that depends on if the HST preforms as promised. If it doesn't add 600,000 jobs (that's the promise) and result in lower compensating consumer prices then yes I'd support repealing it. The number of provincial employees involved is less than 2000. They will be moving to Federal government and could be moved back again. Ideally I'd like all sales taxes removed and replaced with taxes on income with a much wider base as to what constitutes income.

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  25. Jesse would it be a good move? Well that depends on if the HST preforms as promised. If it doesn't add 600,000 jobs (that's the promise) and result in lower compensating consumer prices then yes I'd support repealing it. The number of provincial employees involved is less than 2000. They will be moving to Federal government and could be moved back again. Ideally I'd like all sales taxes removed and replaced with taxes on income with a much wider base as to what constitutes income.

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  26. More on Ontario's HST Revolt:

    http://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/hst/article/734394--hst-equals-hated-sales-tax

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  27. Earl,

    "The number of provincial employees involved is less than 2000. They will be moving to Federal government and could be moved back again."

    My understanding is that the positions aren't moving to the feds but are simply ceasing to exist because the feds already have employees who do the exact same thing for the GST.

    All the paperwork and accounting is simply being cut in half.

    I honestly don't know how that translates to jobs. It seems there would be a decrease in gov't positions and in bussiness accounting jobs.

    The added bussiness efficiency might be used to higher more workers, or be kept as profit, or be passed on to the consumer.

    But by any measure the policy is indisputably good for the economy and creates additional wealth for society.

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  28. If I understand the Federal legislation correctly, once implemented, the tax can't be "deharmonized for a number of years. Therefore, Jesse is at least partly correct.

    I'd be interested in seeing how the opposition parties in BC and Ontario plan to deal with that.

    I expect the Dippers would at least campaign to repeal the tax after the mandatorywaiting period.

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