Friday, December 18, 2009

Projection: 141 CPC, 88 LPC, 50 BQ, 29 NDP

So, a new projection. Only one seat change, but some significant indications of where the trends are headed.The Conservatives are now starting to show some fragility, and are down 0.1 points nationally. The Liberals continue to struggle, and are down 0.3 points and one seat. The NDP is doing better, up 0.1 points (to finally reach 16%) and one seat, while the Greens are up 0.2 points.

This puts the Conservatives at 141 seats, down two from their current standings. The Liberals are down to 88, still up from where they are right now in the House of Commons. The NDP is up to 29, but still down 8 from their current standing, while the Bloc is steady at 50 seats.

The last projection update showed some losses and gains for the Tories throughout the country, and this projection is no different. While this is nothing unexpected for any party, this does end the months of constant growth we saw since October. The biggest gain comes in Atlantic Canada, where the Conservatives are up 0.7 points to reach 32.3%. The party has also gained 0.4 points in the Prairies and is stable in Ontario. They've shown a tiny, 0.1 point loss in the North, and losses of 0.3 points and 0.4 points in Quebec and Alberta, respectively. The biggest loss comes in British Columbia, where the party is down 0.5 points. They're currently at 38.6% there.

The Liberals have also shown some ups and downs, but mostly downs. The biggest gain is in Alberta, 0.4 points, where the party is at 16.9%. They've also gained 0.2 points in British Columbia. They've lost 0.1 points in the North and 0.3 points in the Prairies. They're also down 0.4 points in Ontario and Quebec. The biggest loss is in Atlantic Canada, down 0.7 points to 36.2%.

The NDP is relatively stable throughout the country. They had their biggest gain in Atlantic Canada, 0.3 points, and currently stand at 25.0% in the region. They've also gained 0.2 points in British Columbia and 0.1 points in Ontario, Quebec, and the North. They are down 0.2 points in Alberta and the Prairies.

The Bloc had a good 10 days, and has gained 0.3 points in Quebec. They are currently at 37.7%.

The Greens' biggest gains were in Quebec and Alberta, 0.4 points each, while they did not post a loss anywhere.

So, this updates demonstrates some of the things we've been seeing in recent polls. The Conservatives are starting to slip a little, and their constant growth in the projection has ended. The Liberals are still weak, but their massive loses in the projection have ended. The NDP is stabilising and posting modest growth, while the Bloc is steady.

If there are any other polls over the holidays, I'll make some projection updates. But EKOS has already said they are done until January, so this could be the last projection of the year.


  1. This is excellent news for the Conservatives.

  2. Thanks Eric! Good work.

  3. "Fake Jesse"? Oh dear...

    Interesting numbers, though. Where did the NDP knick that seat from, Eric? Atlantic Canada?

  4. I think the NDP seat came from Ontario. Which is good, because they seem to be doing fairly well everywhere else, but they've seriously dropped in Ontario compared to 2008. Not sure what's causing that.

  5. The NDP always seems to get mediocre polling numbers in Ontario and then makes up for it during the campaign. All through 2007 and early 2008 the NDP was often doing worse in the polls in ontario than it is now (ie: low teens) and then came the campaign and they got over 18% and 17 seats - by far the best seat haul ever!

  6. Know whats odd about that DL; the 18% number for the NDP in 2008 was lower than what they got in 2006, and on par with what they got in 2004. Yet they got many, many more seats than both '06 and '04.

    'Tis odd.

  7. The Liberal vote in Ontario fell from 44% in 2004 to 33% in 2008 and that made all the difference. Also, the NDP has been getting better and better and targeting seats.

  8. --- "Interesting numbers, though. Where did the NDP knick that seat from, Eric? Atlantic Canada?"

    Ontario, sorry. I forgot to mention it.

  9. The NDP won a lot of its seats in Ontario by narrow margins last time. If the current pattern holds, they look likely to lose Sault-Ste-Marie, Sudbury and Welland. On the flip side, there's next to no seats in Ontario that they lost by narrow margins last time, so they've got very little growth potential there.

  10. I wouldn't say that the NDP won "a lot" of its seats by narrow margins - in fact some seats they won by narrow margins in '06 that were supposed to be close like London-Fanshawe, Hamilton East-Stony Creek, Hamilton Mountain and Ottawa Centre were won by really big margins - and some seats that were won for the first time in northern Ontario were won by very wide margins as well. Welland was nly won by 300 votes and I don't know how much of a following Malcolm Allen has built up as the incumbent. The Soo is always close though it alternates as to who the main opponent is and Sudbury wasn't actually all that close with a margin of over 2,000 votes. Looking purely at the 2008 results - on paper the lowest hanging fruit for the NDP in Ontario would be Parkdale-High Park, Beaches-East York and Oshawa. But its probab ly safe to say that unless the NDP vote in Ontario get out of the 18-19% range into the 22-23% range - they are almost maxxed out in terms of Ontario seats.

  11. J. Kenneth Yurchuk22 December, 2009 07:31

    Nanos tweets that he will be releasing new numbers this week.

    No rest for the wicked, Eric.


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