Friday, December 18, 2009

Projection: 141 CPC, 88 LPC, 50 BQ, 29 NDP

So, a new projection. Only one seat change, but some significant indications of where the trends are headed.The Conservatives are now starting to show some fragility, and are down 0.1 points nationally. The Liberals continue to struggle, and are down 0.3 points and one seat. The NDP is doing better, up 0.1 points (to finally reach 16%) and one seat, while the Greens are up 0.2 points.

This puts the Conservatives at 141 seats, down two from their current standings. The Liberals are down to 88, still up from where they are right now in the House of Commons. The NDP is up to 29, but still down 8 from their current standing, while the Bloc is steady at 50 seats.

The last projection update showed some losses and gains for the Tories throughout the country, and this projection is no different. While this is nothing unexpected for any party, this does end the months of constant growth we saw since October. The biggest gain comes in Atlantic Canada, where the Conservatives are up 0.7 points to reach 32.3%. The party has also gained 0.4 points in the Prairies and is stable in Ontario. They've shown a tiny, 0.1 point loss in the North, and losses of 0.3 points and 0.4 points in Quebec and Alberta, respectively. The biggest loss comes in British Columbia, where the party is down 0.5 points. They're currently at 38.6% there.

The Liberals have also shown some ups and downs, but mostly downs. The biggest gain is in Alberta, 0.4 points, where the party is at 16.9%. They've also gained 0.2 points in British Columbia. They've lost 0.1 points in the North and 0.3 points in the Prairies. They're also down 0.4 points in Ontario and Quebec. The biggest loss is in Atlantic Canada, down 0.7 points to 36.2%.

The NDP is relatively stable throughout the country. They had their biggest gain in Atlantic Canada, 0.3 points, and currently stand at 25.0% in the region. They've also gained 0.2 points in British Columbia and 0.1 points in Ontario, Quebec, and the North. They are down 0.2 points in Alberta and the Prairies.

The Bloc had a good 10 days, and has gained 0.3 points in Quebec. They are currently at 37.7%.

The Greens' biggest gains were in Quebec and Alberta, 0.4 points each, while they did not post a loss anywhere.

So, this updates demonstrates some of the things we've been seeing in recent polls. The Conservatives are starting to slip a little, and their constant growth in the projection has ended. The Liberals are still weak, but their massive loses in the projection have ended. The NDP is stabilising and posting modest growth, while the Bloc is steady.

If there are any other polls over the holidays, I'll make some projection updates. But EKOS has already said they are done until January, so this could be the last projection of the year.