Thursday, December 3, 2009

Nova Scotia Provincial Poll

The Chronicle-Herald is reporting on a new Corporate Research Associates poll.So the Nova Scotia New Democrats still have a mighty lead over their opponents, though this does mark a drop of seven points since the last CRA poll in August.

The Liberals are up three points while the Progressive Conservatives are up five. The Greens are down two.

Darrell Dexter is still the top choice for Premier at 44%, interestingly well below his party's support level. This is not the case for Liberal leader Stephen McNeil, with 21% support, but is with the Progressive Conservative leader (yet to be chosen) who is at 12%.

The NDP is still well above the 45% they earned in the June election, while the Liberals (27%) and Progressive Conservatives (25%) are still punching below their weight.

So, good news for the NDP in Nova Scotia. You'd think that would be good news for the federal NDP in Nova Scotia, but we haven't seen big numbers from them in the region lately.


  1. Atlantic Canada is tough to call. The Dippers are very popular provincially in NS and I suspect that if NS numbers could be broken out of the regional federal numbers I suspect they'd be fairly strong too. The Dippers are nowhere federally in NB except for one riding. Also they fair only so so in NL. PEI is a write off for them.

  2. It the populist politics the NDP in NS runs. They listen too the people and try to do what they say with in reason. At the same time they come of fiscally conservative and transparent.

    That is why it is hard to knock an NDP government once they win once. They preach when out of power but when they get in power they don't legislate along party lines. They just take all the good ideas from all the parties and pretend they are all their own.

  3. BTW: Ekos has a poll out today on some issues, but if you look at the crosstabs you can see that the standings are:

    CPC - 36.4, Libs - 26.7, NDP - 16.9, BQ - 10.1 and Green - 9.9

  4. Eric, are you going to do a monthly summary for November like you usually do?

  5. Yes, just waiting. Some polls are released several days after the polling is finished, so I don't want to get caught with a poll ending on November 30.

  6. The BC NDP under Mike Harcourt elected in October, 1991 was also at a 53% polling level one year later in October, 1992.

    A year after that they tanked to around 15% and never fully recovered.

    The same dynamics existed with Bob Rae's Ontario NDP government.

    The question is: Will Dexter poll the way of Harcourt/Rae or will he poll the way of Doer/Romanow?

    We should have a good insight in about 1 1/2 years.

  7. There are examples like that for all parties. Mulroney was very popular for his first year and then by 1986 he was in the low 20s.

  8. Eric,

    Last week when the EKOS poll came and the Conservatives were down slightly you asked whether it was a statistical anomaly or whether it was an indiction of things to come.

    You mentioned the torture issue and upcoming testimony as a potential issue.

    I'm glad to say if the numbers that DL shared with us are accurate that Canadians simply do not care about a 2 year old problem left over by the Liberals that has already been fixed.

    Hopefully the media and opposition will move on at this point !

  9. The BC NDP under Mike Harcourt elected in October, 1991 was also at a 53% polling level one year later in October, 1992.

    A year after that they tanked to around 15% and never fully recovered.

    I seem to recall that they were re-elected in 1996.


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