Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Projection: 141 CPC, 89 LPC, 50 BQ, 28 NDP

There haven't been a lot of polls, but quite some time has passed. Also, with a new month means new values for older polls. So we do get some changes.This is significant, because it bumps the Conservatives up to 141 seats and qualifies them for what I call a Strong Minority Government. Why? Because now the second and third parties, the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois, are unable to out-vote the government by themselves. The combined Liberal and Bloc total is now 139 seats.

The Conservatives had a decent two week period, picking up a seat in the Prairies and in Atlantic Canada. Their biggest gain comes in Quebec, where they are up 0.5 points. They've also gained 0.2 points in Atlantic Canada and 0.1 points in British Columbia and the North. They are stable in Alberta but have actually dropped 0.1 points in Ontario. Nationally, they are up 0.1 points to 36.5%.

The Liberals did not have a good two-weeks, though it could've been worse. They're down a seat in the Prairies and Quebec, and down 0.2 points nationally to 28.4%. They did not make any gains anywhere, but suffered no losses in Alberta and - more importantly - Ontario. They dropped 0.1 points in the North and Atlantic Canada, 0.2 points in the Prairies, 0.3 points in British Columbia, and a whopping 0.8 points in Quebec.

The Bloc performed well, gaining 0.2 points in Quebec and a seat. They are now at 50 seats and 37.4% in the province. Nationally, though it doesn't really mean anything, they are up 0.1 points.

The NDP lose a seat in Atlantic Canada, but were otherwise pretty stable. They gained 0.3 points in the Prairies and 0.2 points in Ontario and Quebec. Those last two are good signs for the party. They were stable in Atlantic Canada, the North, and British Columbia, but lost 0.1 points in Alberta.

Finally, the Greens did not move much, though they are up 0.2 points nationally. They gained 0.1 points in British Columbia, Alberta, and the North. They were stable in Ontario but lost 0.1 points in the Prairies and Quebec and 0.3 points in Atlantic Canada.

Despite some major issues (Copenhagen and Afghanistan), the Conservatives have managed to stabilise their position. The Liberals aren't gaining any ground but seem to have slowed their decline. The NDP is also making baby-steps forward, despite the seat loss in this projection (which actually has more to do with Conservative gains in Atlantic Canada than NDP losses). The Bloc is slowly moving upwards at the expense of the Liberals while the Greens are not making their presence felt anywhere.

It looks like status quo after a year of this Parliament. Undoubtedly there will be little change over Christmas.


  1. Eric,

    "Undoubtedly there will be little change over Christmas."

    The holidays are a time for reflection and families gather and discussions sometimes lead to politics!

    I wouldn't actually be surprised if things changed over Christmas, despite the fact that there will be zero political news.

  2. will you do a November summary as well?

  3. Earth shattering political development!

    A politician states the obvious, for the first time in a long time.

    Danielle Smith declares that the science of global warming is not proven and that we should not sign on to a costly international agreement.

    Can we just skip the premier part and make her PM ?

  4. Jesse how about you just ignore my posts. I'll ignore yours. I'm not interested in any further debate with you. Let's leave things at that. I could say more, but would prefer not to.

  5. Earl,

    Thank you for the offer but i'll respond to whatever I like, if only to reserve the option to challenge some of your more questionable ideas.

  6. As you please I simply don't enjoy engaging in meaningless debate with ideologues, either right or left. Don't mistake my lack of response as agreement.

  7. Earl,

    certainly. Spine and conviction are not for everyone.

    I'm well aware that its fashionable to be "moderate", with a grab bag of eclectic beliefs that don't form a coherent philosophy.

    How a complete and utter lack of principle became a virtue I do not know.

    But you are free to indulge whatever pretensions you wish.

  8. There are plenty of political blogs where people can debate ideology. Why don't we stick to posting about our interpretations of polls here?

  9. DL,

    Nobody is talking about debating ideology. Although public policy debates certainly ARE relevent because the popularity of policy, as well as scandal, is what drives poll numbers.

    Earl is saying he doesn't want to interact with me because I have a belief system.

    Its a pretty stunning and bizzare statement actually.

    DL, one wonders whether your partisan advocacy for the NDP stems from a social democratic ideology ?

  10. J. Kenneth Yurchuk09 December, 2009 01:01

    There is a poll discussed in the Globe and Mail from a Quebec polling firm. Has Ignatieff in last place in all categories, while Layton is moving up to fill the vacuum left by the Liberals. Quite interesting...

  11. For those looking for the article, it can be found here:


  12. Jesse,

    I think there is another reason Earl doesn't want to interact with you.

  13. "DL, one wonders whether your partisan advocacy for the NDP stems from a social democratic ideology ?"

    It does, but I am trying to stick to using that lens to discuss polling numbers - not to get into an elaborate debate about the merits of social democracy compared to classic laissez faire liberalism.

  14. DL,

    I discuss policy, as it relates to the specific programs of governments of the day and how that could be affecting their poll numbers.

    Oh, with the obvious exception of my explanation of "trickle down economics" to Earl.

    Like many Canadians, he was using the phrase without knowing exactly what it means.


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