Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Bloc aims for high-water mark in Quebec

Si la tendance se maintient, the Bloc Québécois will win a majority of Quebec seats in the next election for the seventh consecutive time. The next election will also be Gilles Duceppe’s sixth as head of the party, making him the undisputed greybeard of the five federal leaders.

The rest of the article can be read on The Globe and Mail website. It's my second in a series of five covering each of the main federal parties.

Here are the full listings of the ridings and their classification for the Bloc Québécois.

FORTRESS RIDINGS (25)

Montcalm
La Pointe-de-l'Île
Rivière-du-Nord
Repentigny
Bas-Richelieu - Nicolet - Bécancour
Terrebonne - Blainville
Joliette
Verchères - Les Patriotes
Rosemont - La Petite-Patrie
Chambly - Borduas
Laurier - Sainte-Marie
Saint-Jean
Sherbrooke
Beauharnois - Salaberry
Argenteuil - Papineau - Mirabel
Hochelaga
Abitibi - Témiscamingue
Châteauguay - Saint-Constant
Saint-Hyacinthe - Bagot
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
Rimouski-Neigette - Témiscouata - Les Basques
Berthier - Maskinongé
Longueuil - Pierre-Boucher
Saint-Bruno - Saint-Hubert
Manicouagan

SECURE RIDINGS (18)

Montmorency - Charlevoix - Haute-Côte-Nord
Shefford
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
Trois-Rivières
Laurentides - Labelle
Saint-Maurice - Champlain
Compton - Stanstead
Vaudreuil - Soulanges
Richmond - Arthabaska
Québec
Drummond
Gaspésie - Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Laval
Alfred-Pellan
Abitibi - Baie-James - Nunavik - Eeyou
Saint-Lambert
Louis-Hébert
Chicoutimi - Le Fjord

VULNERABLE RIDINGS (5)

Haute-Gaspésie - La Mitis - Matane - Matapédia
Ahuntsic
Gatineau
Brome - Missisquoi
Jeanne - Le Ber

TARGETED RIDINGS (6)

Brossard - La Prairie
Portneuf - Jacques-Cartier
Roberval - Lac-Saint-Jean
Beauport - Limoilou
Papineau
Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Rivière-du-Loup

POTENTIAL RIDINGS (10)

Pontiac
Charlesbourg - Haute-Saint-Charles
Jonquière - Alma
Hull - Aylmer
Honoré-Mercier
LaSalle - Émard
Laval - Les Îles
Mégantic - L'Érable
Lévis - Bellechasse
Louis-Saint-Laurent

UNASSAILABLE (11)

Bourassa
Lotbinière - Chutes-de-la-Chaudiére
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce - Lachine
Beauce
Saint-Léonard - Saint-Michel
Outremont
Saint-Laurent - Cartierville
Pierrefonds - Dollard
Westmount - Ville-Marie
Lac-Saint-Louis
Mount Royal

12 comments:

  1. If in a worst case scenario for the Bloc, they could be held to 43 seats in Quebec, who would be the biggest beneficiary? What would the National outcome look like?

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  2. Well, that assumes that the five vulnerable seats are lost. That would probably mean one more seat for the Conservatives, three for the Liberals, and one for the NDP.

    So, assuming the rest of the country stays the same (and the Tories win the two other vacancies in addition to Haute-Gaspésie), the Conservatives would have 146 seats, the Liberals 80, and the NDP 37.

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  3. Why are so many Quebec ridings named after people instead of places? Where the heck is Louis-Saint-Laurent, Louis-Hebert, or Marc-Aurel-Fortin? (I only happen to know where Jeanne Le Ber is because I once lived there, but why not call it "Verdun-Sud-Ouest", so that someone might have a clue where the riding covers?)Where you vote is confusing enough to most people without obscure, even misleading riding names (eg., Louis-Saint-Laurent riding is nowhere near the city of Saint-Laurent)

    Even worse are the Quebec provincial ridings, where some ridings are named after easily identifiable former party leaders (Rene-Levesque, Jean-Lesage.) What kind of silly system forces a Liberal candidate to put Rene Levesque's name on all his campaign posters?

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  4. Éric, peux-tu me dire pourquoi personne ne t'a recruté pour écrire au Québec? Les médias québécois dorment au gaz...

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  5. Le français est ma deuxième langue.

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  6. Oh and here I thot you were Quebecois yourself :P

    I think he said "Eric, could you tell me why you havent recruited anyone to write about Quebec? The Quebec media is asleep at the gas."

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  7. Yes, I am a Quebecer and thanks for the translation, but I do speak French. My written French is not good enough to be published, however.

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  8. Ah, one of my favourite topics! That the highest level of French study in Quebec's anglophone public schools won't give students enough skills to write a business letter or newspaper article.
    Quebec English schools turn out people who are capable of working only OUTSIDE Quebec.

    This should have been the most important issue to Quebec anglophone groups for the past thirty years. That they focused on trivial things like commercial signs shows how out of touch they were.

    If the PQ is so worried about the state of French on the island of Montreal, they could have made the anglophone schools teach better French when they were in government.

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  9. I was educated in Ontario, not in Quebec.

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  10. Then you probably grew up with terrible bagels. I'm sorry.

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  11. What would it take for the Bloc to clean sweep Quebec and win all 75 seats? Is there any way that could happen in the near future?

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  12. No. There are ridings in western Montreal where the Bloc gets about 5%-10% of the vote. They will never be elected there.

    The ceiling of 64 seats in this analysis is, I think, about the best the Bloc could ever achieve.

    ReplyDelete

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