Monday, January 10, 2011

Political deep freeze endures – even in hypothetical fantasyland

A disunited left and an uninspiring right have conspired to elect three successive minority governments in Canada, with listless polls showing voters on track to install a fourth in 2011 or 2012. While the Conservatives have no competitors for support on the right, the existence of four parties to the left of the Tories has many musing on the possibility of various hypothetical scenarios. But estimations of what electoral results these scenarios would yield demonstrate it will take more than a merger or two to get Canada out of its political logjam.

The rest of the article can be read on The Globe and Mail website.

Regular readers might consider the premise of the article familiar. That's because it is. That blog post, however, was about the 2008 election and how other scenarios might have played out. This article is about the next election, using my current projections and then adjusting them.

For those interested, here is the regional breakdown for each scenario (WC = Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and the North):

No Green Party

Conservatives: 18 BC, 48 WC, 46 ON, 8 QC, 8 AT
Liberals: 7 BC, 4 WC, 43 ON, 13 QC, 21 AT
New Democrats: 11 BC, 7 WC, 17 ON, 1 QC, 3 AT
Bloc Québécois: 52 QC
Other: 1 QC

United Federalist Left

Conservatives: 17 BC, 45 WC, 42 ON, 6 QC, 11 AT
United Left: 19 BC, 14 WC, 64 ON, 13 QC, 20 AT
Bloc Québécois: 56 QC
Other: 1 AT

Liberal/NDP Merger

Conservatives: 22 BC, 47 WC, 45 ON, 6 QC, 7 AT
Liberal Democrats: 14 BC, 12 WC, 61 ON, 14 QC, 24 AT
Bloc Québécois: 55 QC
Other: 1 AT