Thursday, January 13, 2011

With bar set low, Greens have decent shot at victory

Whenever it takes place, the next election will be Elizabeth May’s second as Green Party Leader. After increasing her party’s support and getting herself into the nationally televised debates in 2008, her supporters will expect nothing less than the party’s first seat victory when Canadians are next asked to cast their ballots.

The rest of the article can be read on The Globe and Mail website.

This is the first of five pieces on each of the parties, which will determine their floor and ceiling in terms of seats. Ridings will be classified in five categories: fortress, secure, vulnerable, targeted, and potential.

Fortress ridings are those which are extremely unlikely to be lost by the party in the next election. Secure ridings are those which are unlikely to be lost, but which are within the greatest margin that was overcome in 2008. Vulnerable ridings are those which, according to current projections and special circumstances (i.e., Larry Smith in Lac-Saint-Louis), are at play. Targeted ridings are those that are held by other parties and are at play, while potential ridings are those that are within the margin that was overcome in Egmont in 2008.

Starting with the Greens means there are no fortress, secure, or vulnerable ridings. I've identified Saanich - Gulf Islands as the only riding fitting in the "targeted" category, while Bruce - Grey - Owen Sound, Guelph, and Vancouver Centre are in the "potential" category. This gives the Greens a ceiling of four seats.

As there won't be room to list all of the ridings in each category in my Globe pieces for the other parties, I will do so here.

I expect to post about yesterday's Angus-Reid poll later this afternoon.