Friday, January 21, 2011

Provincial Political Polling Trends

A bit of a dry period, recently. Normally I have more polls that I can write about, but so far this month we've received only a few federal polls and virtually no provincial ones.

So, here's a new chart to add to the pile. I've compiled all of the provincial political polls going back to January 2010. Now, this chart requires a bit of explanation.

What I've done is averaged out all of the polling results each month, with polls that had field dates that straddled two months being part of the average for both those months. Months without any polls are considered to have the same levels of support for each party as the last month in which there was a poll. This gives us some straight lines that only shift once new polls appear.

The charts will be updated on a monthly basis.

The legend for this chart is at the bottom of this post.

Orange: BC New Democrats
Red: BC Liberals
Green: BC Greens
Blue: BC Conservatives

Blue: Progressive Conservatives
Green: Wildrose Alliance
Red: Liberals
Orange: New Democrats

Dark Green: Saskatchewan Party
Orange: New Democrats
Red: Liberals
Light Green: Greens

Blue: Progressive Conservatives
Orange: New Democrats
Red: Liberals
Green: Greens

Dark Blue: Parti Québécois
Red: Liberals
Light Blue: Action Démocratique du Québec
Orange: Québec Solidaire
Green: Greens

Blue: Progressive Conservatives
Orange: New Democrats
Red: Liberals


  1. This is a wonderful dataset, Éric. The presentation of it gives an amazing overview of the big picture.

    That must have been a LOT of work!

  2. Interesting to see the NDP doing as well as it is in Ontario. What are the odds of an '85-style accord between the Liberals and NDP if (when) the Conservatives end up with the most seats? I guess it comes down to where the NDP support is and if a lot of it comes from Liberal ridings.

    It's also kind of funny to see the Liberals collapsed exactly when the HST came into effect. Surprise surprise.

  3. I would very much doubt the McGuinty Liberals would be interested in joining forces with the ONDP and Andrea Horwath, who are just this side of Marxism in their outlook.

  4. I have never seen a politician who is not so much loathed, but an object of pure derision as Dalton McGuinty. People don't care much what Hudack will do. They merely want a change from the mess they perceive the Liberals have made of things.

    Right now I think Hudack will win an outright majority.

    Hopefully the Liberal's with a new leader and a more centrist approach can defeat Hudack in 2015 if the need is there.

    People want something between Harris and McGuinty and most of all someone who keeps their word.

  5. I love the Saskatchewan chart. Comedy gold.

  6. I dunno, Earl. I may be a tad bit biased (of course), but I've seen enough hesitation over Tim Hudak, even from lifelong PC members in my family, to question that assessment. Remember that McGuinty faced a near-death experience once, and bounced back from it. Also don't forget that the OLP organization is absolutely staggering in its size and scope. I dunno how powerful PCPO is, but even sitting as far ahead as they are I wouldn't say they're safe once the Big Red Machine gets moving.

  7. --- I love the Saskatchewan chart. Comedy gold.

    Yes, well, I need more polls.

  8. Volkov

    Have to agree re Hudak. Don't think there is even a minority govt in view for him. People don't like McSquinty but they simply will not go back to a Mike Harris clone. Been there, done that, never again seems to be the message.

  9. Congrats on the charts Eric-great meat to chew on. I think that the Ont libs will win a minority govt and get support from the NDP. Hudak is a one trick tax cut pony and has the baggage of Harris and Harper. This scenario of course assumes no federal election to muddy the waters until next year. Ontario usually balances their votes so the provincial and federal parties in govt are different. The Ont libs could very well be pressuring their cousins to wait.

  10. Eric RW what Harper baggage would that be ??

    The CPC is the dominant party in Ontario. Harper is more popular than McGuinty.

    The CPC's leading figures were all Harris ministers - Baird, Flaherty, and Clement.

    Being associated with Harper is a GOOD thing in Ontario.

    Running under the absolutely trashed, both federally and provincially, Liberal banner is not so great.

  11. Shadow,

    You're not from around here, are you? 'Cause if you were, you'd know better.

  12. Volkov

    You're not from around here, are you? 'Cause if you were, you'd know better.

    I believe you will find he's a resident of La-La Land out West.

    Knows squat about Ontario politics but simply cannot pass up an opportunity to push the CPC line of bilge !!

  13. Volkov you haven't been paying attention have you ? 'Cause if you were, you'd know this is 2011 and not 2004.

    CPC = dominant Ontario party (check 2008 election results, Vaughan by-election.)

    Harper = most popular leader in Ontario, both federally AND provincially (see multiple polls.)

    Harris alums getting elected no problem federally and face of CPC in Ontario (indisputable fact.)

    The wheels started rolling off that big red machine some time ago.

    Even in the 2007 election McGuinty lost 4%.

    As for Harris, didn't Toronto just have its own mini common sense revolution ??

    Anger towards specific individuals fades over time. Witness America in 2010 electing loads of people associated with Bush who was massively unpopular just two years before.

  14. Shadow,

    Two things.

    1. 39% of the vote does not equal "total domination."

    2. Barely managing a win in one riding with a star candidate does not equal "total domination."

    Bonus: Polls show extremely close race in Ontario currently, also not equalling "total domination."

    Seriously, man, hook yourself back up to reality. It's like me saying because the Liberals eked out a popular vote and seat win in Nova Scotia they're the dominant party of the province.

  15. Volkov you keep quoting "total domination", which is kind of strange because nowhere did I use that term.

    Are you setting up a straw man perhaps ?

    1. 39 percent of the vote is a strong plurality, especially when the Liberals were hanging back at 33.

    2. a) Star candidate which the Liberals tried and failed to recruit - this is damning in and of itself.

    b) +14.9% vote swing in favour of CPC is the new normal in Ontario ??

    Sweet! We'll take it! Apply that to every 2008 election result and Harper has a nice majority.

    Bonus: Polls showed a tight race before 2008 in Ontario as well.

    But the big red machine has no wheels so those polling numbers never translated into actual votes once the writ was dropped.

    Seriously Volkov drop the rose coloured glasses. The #1 problem stopping the Liberals from re-building is the fact that they refuse to accept they've lost (at least temporarily) their position as the natural governing party of Canada.

  16. Volkov

    What we have in Shadow is one of those unfortunates who only exist to do one thing.


    It doesn't matter what they win, or how they win. All that matters to them is the "Win"!!

    So he will do anything to Win. Lie, spin, outright refute the irrefutable, it doesn't matter to him.

    So discussion is really out of the question as discussion postulates there is more than one viewpoint which to Shadow means there is a chance he can't "Win" hence discussion is out !!


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